4502 Orchard Rd · St. Joseph, MO 64506

$119,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 877 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 132 Days on market

Built 1927 0.54 ac lot $137/sqft · 16% below area Est $163k · 26% under ↓ 52% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NICE LITTLE 2 BEDROOM HOME. SITTING ON 1/2 ACRE SMALL WORK SHOP FEELS LIKE LIVING IN THE COUNTRY PERFECT FOR INVESTMENT.

Key facts

• 0.54 acre lot
• Garage
• Listed 131 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $16 ($192/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $96k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $96k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.7% in St. Joseph — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Joseph (urban): math 28% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #241 of 324 in MO (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 119 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 70 units permitted in Buchanan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Buchanan County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $95,513 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.57%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $163,126
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: -26.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4809 Miller Rd	0.25mi	2/1.0	906 (+3%)	3mo	$78,000	$86	80
1911 Oscar St	0.58mi	2/2.0	864 (-2%)	0mo	$190,000	$220	66
1910 Oscar St	0.58mi	2/1.0	900 (+3%)	12mo	$109,900	$122	58
2209 Mary Ave	0.43mi	2/2.0	960 (+10%)	14mo	$119,000	$124	48
5425 Greencrest Rd	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	908 (+4%)	18mo	$180,000	$198	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-18,451
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-14,922
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64506

• Active inventory: 119
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $955 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $718/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$201
• Net cashflow: $16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $935

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2807 Pembroke Ln Unit A12 Saint Joseph, MO	1.0	1.0	603	$825	$1.37	43d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $119,900 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,900 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,900 Active 125 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 122 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 121 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 120 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 116 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 115 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 114 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 113 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,900 Active 112 DOM
16. 2026-04-22
    price $119,900 125-char remark

    Show marketing remark (125 chars)

    NICE LITTLE 2 BEDROOM HOME. SITTING ON 1/2 ACRE SMALL WORK SHOP FEELS LIKE LIVING IN THE COUNTRY PERFECT FOR INVESTMENT.

17. 2026-02-07
    listed $125,000 Active 125-char remark

    Show marketing remark (125 chars)

    NICE LITTLE 2 BEDROOM HOME. SITTING ON 1/2 ACRE SMALL WORK SHOP FEELS LIKE LIVING IN THE COUNTRY PERFECT FOR INVESTMENT.

18. 2024-01-24
    soldstatus
19. 2023-12-15
    soldstatus Closed 1175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1175 chars)

    Charming two-bedroom, one-bathroom home rests peacefully on a generous half-acre lot, offering ample space for outdoor activities, gardening, and the potential for expansion. Nestled in a tranquil neighborhood, the property welcomes you with its well-manicured front lawn, and mature trees. The home offers a cute kitchen as you enter the home and a comfortable living space. Stepping outside, you're greeted by the expansive backyard, sprawling across the half-acre lot. The possibilities for outdoor enjoyment are endless, whether you envision hosting barbecues, cultivating a flourishing garden, or simply relishing in the tranquility of nature. The generous space also allows for potential expansion or the addition of outdoor amenities such as a deck, patio, or even a pool, providing further opportunities to create your dream outdoor living space. In summary, this delightful two-bedroom, one-bathroom home on a half-acre lot offers a peaceful and comfortable living space, a well-maintained interior, and ample opportunities to enjoy the great outdoors. Its ideal location provides a serene retreat while still offering easy access to local amenities and attractions.

20. 2023-12-02
    status Pending 1175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1175 chars)

    Charming two-bedroom, one-bathroom home rests peacefully on a generous half-acre lot, offering ample space for outdoor activities, gardening, and the potential for expansion. Nestled in a tranquil neighborhood, the property welcomes you with its well-manicured front lawn, and mature trees. The home offers a cute kitchen as you enter the home and a comfortable living space. Stepping outside, you're greeted by the expansive backyard, sprawling across the half-acre lot. The possibilities for outdoor enjoyment are endless, whether you envision hosting barbecues, cultivating a flourishing garden, or simply relishing in the tranquility of nature. The generous space also allows for potential expansion or the addition of outdoor amenities such as a deck, patio, or even a pool, providing further opportunities to create your dream outdoor living space. In summary, this delightful two-bedroom, one-bathroom home on a half-acre lot offers a peaceful and comfortable living space, a well-maintained interior, and ample opportunities to enjoy the great outdoors. Its ideal location provides a serene retreat while still offering easy access to local amenities and attractions.

21. 2023-11-03
    price $90,000 1175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1175 chars)

    Charming two-bedroom, one-bathroom home rests peacefully on a generous half-acre lot, offering ample space for outdoor activities, gardening, and the potential for expansion. Nestled in a tranquil neighborhood, the property welcomes you with its well-manicured front lawn, and mature trees. The home offers a cute kitchen as you enter the home and a comfortable living space. Stepping outside, you're greeted by the expansive backyard, sprawling across the half-acre lot. The possibilities for outdoor enjoyment are endless, whether you envision hosting barbecues, cultivating a flourishing garden, or simply relishing in the tranquility of nature. The generous space also allows for potential expansion or the addition of outdoor amenities such as a deck, patio, or even a pool, providing further opportunities to create your dream outdoor living space. In summary, this delightful two-bedroom, one-bathroom home on a half-acre lot offers a peaceful and comfortable living space, a well-maintained interior, and ample opportunities to enjoy the great outdoors. Its ideal location provides a serene retreat while still offering easy access to local amenities and attractions.

22. 2023-10-30
    status Active 1175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1175 chars)

    Charming two-bedroom, one-bathroom home rests peacefully on a generous half-acre lot, offering ample space for outdoor activities, gardening, and the potential for expansion. Nestled in a tranquil neighborhood, the property welcomes you with its well-manicured front lawn, and mature trees. The home offers a cute kitchen as you enter the home and a comfortable living space. Stepping outside, you're greeted by the expansive backyard, sprawling across the half-acre lot. The possibilities for outdoor enjoyment are endless, whether you envision hosting barbecues, cultivating a flourishing garden, or simply relishing in the tranquility of nature. The generous space also allows for potential expansion or the addition of outdoor amenities such as a deck, patio, or even a pool, providing further opportunities to create your dream outdoor living space. In summary, this delightful two-bedroom, one-bathroom home on a half-acre lot offers a peaceful and comfortable living space, a well-maintained interior, and ample opportunities to enjoy the great outdoors. Its ideal location provides a serene retreat while still offering easy access to local amenities and attractions.

23. 2023-08-12
    status Pending 1175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1175 chars)

    Charming two-bedroom, one-bathroom home rests peacefully on a generous half-acre lot, offering ample space for outdoor activities, gardening, and the potential for expansion. Nestled in a tranquil neighborhood, the property welcomes you with its well-manicured front lawn, and mature trees. The home offers a cute kitchen as you enter the home and a comfortable living space. Stepping outside, you're greeted by the expansive backyard, sprawling across the half-acre lot. The possibilities for outdoor enjoyment are endless, whether you envision hosting barbecues, cultivating a flourishing garden, or simply relishing in the tranquility of nature. The generous space also allows for potential expansion or the addition of outdoor amenities such as a deck, patio, or even a pool, providing further opportunities to create your dream outdoor living space. In summary, this delightful two-bedroom, one-bathroom home on a half-acre lot offers a peaceful and comfortable living space, a well-maintained interior, and ample opportunities to enjoy the great outdoors. Its ideal location provides a serene retreat while still offering easy access to local amenities and attractions.

24. 2023-07-29
    price $99,500 1175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1175 chars)

    Charming two-bedroom, one-bathroom home rests peacefully on a generous half-acre lot, offering ample space for outdoor activities, gardening, and the potential for expansion. Nestled in a tranquil neighborhood, the property welcomes you with its well-manicured front lawn, and mature trees. The home offers a cute kitchen as you enter the home and a comfortable living space. Stepping outside, you're greeted by the expansive backyard, sprawling across the half-acre lot. The possibilities for outdoor enjoyment are endless, whether you envision hosting barbecues, cultivating a flourishing garden, or simply relishing in the tranquility of nature. The generous space also allows for potential expansion or the addition of outdoor amenities such as a deck, patio, or even a pool, providing further opportunities to create your dream outdoor living space. In summary, this delightful two-bedroom, one-bathroom home on a half-acre lot offers a peaceful and comfortable living space, a well-maintained interior, and ample opportunities to enjoy the great outdoors. Its ideal location provides a serene retreat while still offering easy access to local amenities and attractions.

25. 2023-07-18
    price $105,000 1175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1175 chars)

    Charming two-bedroom, one-bathroom home rests peacefully on a generous half-acre lot, offering ample space for outdoor activities, gardening, and the potential for expansion. Nestled in a tranquil neighborhood, the property welcomes you with its well-manicured front lawn, and mature trees. The home offers a cute kitchen as you enter the home and a comfortable living space. Stepping outside, you're greeted by the expansive backyard, sprawling across the half-acre lot. The possibilities for outdoor enjoyment are endless, whether you envision hosting barbecues, cultivating a flourishing garden, or simply relishing in the tranquility of nature. The generous space also allows for potential expansion or the addition of outdoor amenities such as a deck, patio, or even a pool, providing further opportunities to create your dream outdoor living space. In summary, this delightful two-bedroom, one-bathroom home on a half-acre lot offers a peaceful and comfortable living space, a well-maintained interior, and ample opportunities to enjoy the great outdoors. Its ideal location provides a serene retreat while still offering easy access to local amenities and attractions.

26. 2023-06-23
    listed $120,000 Active 1175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1175 chars)

    Charming two-bedroom, one-bathroom home rests peacefully on a generous half-acre lot, offering ample space for outdoor activities, gardening, and the potential for expansion. Nestled in a tranquil neighborhood, the property welcomes you with its well-manicured front lawn, and mature trees. The home offers a cute kitchen as you enter the home and a comfortable living space. Stepping outside, you're greeted by the expansive backyard, sprawling across the half-acre lot. The possibilities for outdoor enjoyment are endless, whether you envision hosting barbecues, cultivating a flourishing garden, or simply relishing in the tranquility of nature. The generous space also allows for potential expansion or the addition of outdoor amenities such as a deck, patio, or even a pool, providing further opportunities to create your dream outdoor living space. In summary, this delightful two-bedroom, one-bathroom home on a half-acre lot offers a peaceful and comfortable living space, a well-maintained interior, and ample opportunities to enjoy the great outdoors. Its ideal location provides a serene retreat while still offering easy access to local amenities and attractions.

27. 2023-05-05
    soldstatus
28. 2023-04-28
    soldstatus Closed
29. 2023-03-04
    status Pending
30. 2023-02-14
    listed $250,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $718 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,163 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$445/yr (+$37/mo · 62.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,462
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$718
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$917
• − Management: −$917
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable loss: −$1,894
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$455
• After-tax cash flow: $646/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Joseph
• NCES district ID: 2927060
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,007
• Composite: 27.99/100
• National rank: #6853
• State rank: #241 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Joseph

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Joseph, MO
• County: Buchanan County · 32,150 people
• City population: 44,382
• Metro: St. Joseph, MO-KS
• Population (ZIP): 21,461
• Household income: $65,573
• Rent vs Own: 39.2% rent · 60.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 686.0

Population outlook (Buchanan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 89,041 people
• By 2030: 88,401 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 86,220 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 83,603 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 76,750 · -13.8%
• By 2100: 67,623 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6% Asian 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Buchanan

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.0) · D 35.2% · R 63.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.2pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -28.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.0 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+8.7 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -127.26%
• Current HPI: 186.0383
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Joseph, MO-KS
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-52.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $119,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-07 Listed $125,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-12-15 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-02 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-03 Price Changed $90,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-30 Relisted — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-12 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-29 Price Changed $99,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-18 Price Changed $105,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-23 Listed $120,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-04-28 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-04 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-14 Listed $250,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $718 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.