30 Pecan Pass · Silver Springs Shores, FL 34472

$312,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 2026 0.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Welcome to a spacious and inviting 4-bedroom, open-concept and all concrete block constructed home where design meets functional elegance. The seamless flow between living areas and the kitchen creates an expansive environment for both daily living and entertaining. The kitchen is a focal point of this home and designed for style and convenience including a stainless-steel range, microwave, built-in dishwasher. Four well-appointed bedrooms and located in the front of the home and nearby a full bathroom. The primary bedroom features an ensuite bathroom, double vanity, and walk-in closet. The laundry room is complete with a washer and dryer hook up. This residence embodies

Key facts

• Double vanity
• Walk-in closet
• Built-in dishwasher

Tags

• ALL CONCRETE BLOCK CONSTRUCTED
• STAINLESS-STEEL RANGE
• BUILT-IN DISHWASHER
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• DOUBLE VANITY
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $312,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $279,240.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $313k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-280 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (26.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (41.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (41.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#527 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime C-, employment D, schools F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 674 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $96k; list at $313k implies a 224% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,084 (41.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.29%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $279,240
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4 Redwood Trace Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,594 (+2%)	2mo	$255,000	$160	84
52 Pecan Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,458 (-6%)	8mo	$255,000	$175	74
60 Fir Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,608 (+3%)	6mo	$280,000	$174	70
2 Pecan Pl	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-8%)	6mo	$270,000	$188	68
24 Fir Drive Trce	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,453 (-7%)	9mo	$260,000	$179	68
30 Hemlock Terrace Way	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,664 (+7%)	4mo	$225,000	$135	66
11 Fir Dr	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (-3%)	6mo	$242,000	$160	64
8 Pecan Run Ter	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,453 (-7%)	5mo	$264,900	$182	63
14 Redwood Track Pass	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,453 (-7%)	3mo	$275,000	$189	59
6940 SE 52nd St	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,602 (+3%)	3mo	$240,000	$150	55
3 Fir Trl	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,776 (+14%)	4mo	$359,000	$202	49
6940 Hemlock Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,454 (-7%)	7mo	$287,000	$197	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.93% appreciation · 0.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $56,522
• Equity at exit: $174,353

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.19×
• Total profit: $171,144
• Equity at exit: $315,159

Cash invested: $78,187 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34472

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 674
• Price-to-rent: 14.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,831 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,464
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,744/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $-280

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,185

Max offer price $229,826

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,810
• Closing costs: $8,377
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
45 Redwood Run Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1435	$1,695	$1.18	21d	1	0.21mi
13 Redwood Trace Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,595	$1.19	21d	1	0.36mi
38 Pecan Run Pass Ocala, FL	4.0	2.5	2086	$2,100	$1.01	21d	1	0.54mi
5614 Pecan Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,595	$1.19	21d	1	0.61mi
19 Pecan Pass Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,750	$1.28	21d	1	0.66mi
106 Redwood Track Crse Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,675	$1.19	13d	1	0.72mi
96 Redwood Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,650	$1.39	13d	1	0.72mi
36 Pecan Run Crse Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,850	$1.56	13d	1	0.74mi
6875 SE 52nd St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1624	$1,750	$1.08	21d	1	0.74mi
7044 Hemlock Crse Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,897	$1.49	13d	1	0.90mi
136 Hickory Course Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,990	$1.09	13d	1	0.91mi
149 Hickory Course Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,100	$1.15	13d	1	0.93mi
492 Hickory Course Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,750	$1.18	21d	1	0.95mi
308 Hickory Course Radl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1397	$1,650	$1.18	21d	1	1.21mi
7184 Hemlock Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$1,675	$1.20	21d	1	1.48mi
9 Teak Way Dr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,800	$1.33	13d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-03
   price $312,990
3. 2026-02-25
   listed $314,990 Active
4. 2003-04-03
   soldstatus $96,500
5. 2000-10-11
   soldstatus $19,100
6. 2000-08-21
   soldstatus $67,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,744 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,598 · $216/mo
• Expected delta: +$853/yr (+$71/mo · 48.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,970
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,642
• − Property taxes: −$1,744
• − Insurance: −$1,396
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,758
• − Management: −$1,758
• − Depreciation: −$8,123
• Taxable loss: −$8,451
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,028
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,328/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Silver Springs Shores

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #527
• US rank: #9854

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Silver Springs Shores, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 34,665
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,851
• Household income: $64,208
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 655.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 14% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.93%
• Current HPI: 255.0714
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.17%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+361.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $312,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Listed $314,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $96,500 Public Records
• 2000-10-11 Sold (Public Records) $19,100 Public Records
• 2000-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $67,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,744 · +15.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.