267 Southlake Rd · Saratoga, AR 71859

$120,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1976

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

2 bedroom 2 full bathroom, Pier and beam w huge crawl space w shelves and storage under the house. 12x8 storage under add on porch. Screened 12x8 porch. 2 car carport. Security lights front and back w motion light under carport. New 3 ton 18 seer central HVAC heat pumps installed January 2025. New over stove microwave, new dishwasher, double door refrigerator with ice in door, GE 4 burner electric stove, 6 & acirc; & euro; & trade; wide panty w 5 shelves for amble storage. All appliances go w house. Energy audit & amp; Attic insulation added in 2023, wood insert wood burning stove, wood storage area off carport. Solid home w a great location. Area is filled with wildlife,

Key facts

• New central hvac
• Screened porch
• 12x8 storage

Tags

• HUGE CRAWL SPACE
• 12X8 STORAGE
• SCREENED PORCH
• NEW CENTRAL HVAC
• NEW OVER STOVE MICROWAVE
• NEW DISHWASHER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $110 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $106k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Mineral Springs School District (rural): math 15% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #222 of 238 in AR (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Hempstead County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.7% local appreciation)).
• Hempstead County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $120k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,655 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.92%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.7% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $13,324
• Equity at exit: $45,368

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $48,189
• Equity at exit: $63,854

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71859

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,057 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $547/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $110

Break-even live

Break-even rent $918

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $120,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $120,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $120,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 8 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 7 DOM
17. 2026-05-24
    listed $120,000 Active
18. 2007-02-14
    soldstatus $54,000
19. 2005-02-03
    soldstatus $42,000
20. 1995-03-31
    soldstatus $39,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $547 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $768 · $64/mo
• Expected delta: +$221/yr (+$18/mo · 40.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,679
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$547
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,014
• − Management: −$1,014
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$710
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$170
• After-tax cash flow: $1,488/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mineral Springs School District
• NCES district ID: 0509780
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 15% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $35,351
• Composite: 12.37/100
• National rank: #9635
• State rank: #222 of 238 in AR

Livability — Saratoga

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 179

Population outlook (Hempstead County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,807 people
• By 2030: 19,949 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 18,236 · -12.4%
• By 2050: 16,466 · -20.9%
• By 2075: 12,676 · -39.1%
• By 2100: 9,314 · -55.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Black 7% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 33% Lithuanian 16%
• Foreign-born: 6%
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · German/W. Germanic 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Hempstead

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.7) · D 29.2% · R 68.9% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: -19.1pp · 2024: -39.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.7 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+28.9 2012: R+26.3 2008: R+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.70%
• Current HPI: 122.451
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+207.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Listed $120,000 FSBO.com
• 2007-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records
• 2005-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 1995-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+74.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $547 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.