3019 Sea Gate Cir · North Merritt Island, FL 32953

$257,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,110 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1984 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nicely updated with a new kitchenw/ tiled countertops, tiled and laminate wood floors, updated bath vanities, painted in designer colors, roof replaced in 2003,A/C replaced in 2001, large lot fenced, beautiful oak trees.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Laminate wood floors
• Fenced back yard

Tags

• FENCED BACK YARD
• MATURE SHADE TREE
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LAMINATE WOOD FLOORS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• STONE AND GLASS BACKSPLASH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1 car)
• Utilities: Public sewer and septic tank; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Entry level: One
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Pets allowed
• Exterior features: Patio; Chain link and wood fencing; Faces west; County road frontage; Asphalt road surface; Lot features: Other

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fan(s); Primary bathroom with shower (no tub)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $257k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-46 ($-554/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Brevard (suburban): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 73 in FL (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lewis Carroll Elementary School (math 72% / reading 70%, grade A-, #320 of 2,144 statewide, top 15%, 626 students, 38% FRL); Thomas Jefferson Middle School (math 63% / reading 55%, grade B, #144 of 571 statewide, top 26%, 608 students, 43% FRL); Merritt Island High School (math 32% / reading 55%, grade F, #248 of 667 statewide, top 38%, 1,546 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 221 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,602 units permitted in Brevard County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brevard County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $257k implies a 414% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,785 (19.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.77%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-46,432
• Equity at exit: $38,320

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-51,664
• Equity at exit: $22,221

Cash invested: $71,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32953

• Home prices YoY: -34.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,078 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,348
• Tax from tax record: −$233 /mo · $2,794/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $-46

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,136

Max offer price $248,846

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $99	-5% $27	+0% $-46	+5% $-119	+10% $-192
Rent	-10% $-210	-5% $-128	+0% $-46	+5% $36	+10% $118
Rate	-1.0pp $83	-0.5pp $19	base $-46	+0.5pp $-113	+1.0pp $-181

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,250
• Closing costs: $7,710
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3077 Sea Gate Cir Merritt Island, FL	2.0	2.0	1044	$1,950	$1.87	25d	1	0.10mi
104 Parrotfish Ln #101 Merritt Island, FL	3.0	2.5	1487	$2,750	$1.85	25d	1	0.22mi
437 Via Palermo Ct Merritt Island, FL	3.0	2.0	1375	$2,175	$1.58	25d	1	0.39mi
2610 Via Napoli Ct Merritt Island, FL	3.0	2.0	1123	$2,400	$2.14	16d	1	0.45mi
100 Summer Pl #8 Merritt Island, FL	2.0	2.0	1037	$2,500	$2.41	25d	1	0.55mi
650 Parkside Ave Merritt Island, FL	2.0	2.0	1390	$1,950	$1.40	25d	1	0.66mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $257,000 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   price $257,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,900 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,900 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,900 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,900 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $269,900 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $269,900 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,900 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,900 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $269,900 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,900 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,900 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,900 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,900 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,900 Active 31 DOM
17. 2026-04-29
    listed $272,999 Active
18. 2026-01-01
    historical $1,800
19. 2025-12-10
    price $1,800
20. 2025-10-10
    price $1,850
21. 2025-06-26
    listed $1,975
22. 2012-02-17
    soldstatus $50,000
23. 2012-02-02
    soldstatus $50,000 220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    Nicely updated with a new kitchenw/ tiled countertops, tiled and laminate wood floors, updated bath vanities, painted in designer colors, roof replaced in 2003,A/C replaced in 2001, large lot fenced, beautiful oak trees.

24. 2011-08-06
    listed $61,900 220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    Nicely updated with a new kitchenw/ tiled countertops, tiled and laminate wood floors, updated bath vanities, painted in designer colors, roof replaced in 2003,A/C replaced in 2001, large lot fenced, beautiful oak trees.

25. 2005-04-15
    soldstatus $159,900
26. 2005-04-11
    soldstatus $145,000 139-char remark

    Show marketing remark (139 chars)

    ``AS-IS``, 2/2/1, ROOF IS APPROX 2 YEARS OLD. A/C APPROX 4 YEARS OLD, SAME TENANT FOR 8 YEARS. UPGRADING NEEDED LIKE CARPET, PAINT, ETC. ..

27. 2005-02-20
    listed $149,900 139-char remark

    Show marketing remark (139 chars)

    ``AS-IS``, 2/2/1, ROOF IS APPROX 2 YEARS OLD. A/C APPROX 4 YEARS OLD, SAME TENANT FOR 8 YEARS. UPGRADING NEEDED LIKE CARPET, PAINT, ETC. ..

28. 1994-04-30
    soldstatus $54,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,794 · $233/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,794 · $233/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 54% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,934
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,396
• − Property taxes: −$2,794
• − Insurance: −$1,285
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,995
• − Management: −$1,995
• − Depreciation: −$7,476
• Taxable loss: −$5,007
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,202
• After-tax cash flow: $648/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brevard
• NCES district ID: 1200150
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,426
• Composite: 46.86/100
• National rank: #2370
• State rank: #19 of 73 in FL

Livability — North Merritt Island

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Merritt Island, FL
• County: Brevard County · 602,871 people
• City population: 24,834
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,759
• Household income: $87,262
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 849.0

Population outlook (Brevard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 623,254 people
• By 2030: 648,420 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 690,009 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 715,669 · +14.8%
• By 2075: 775,744 · +24.5%
• By 2100: 776,687 · +24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 7% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Tagalog/Filipino 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brevard

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.1% · R 59.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+19.8 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -168.76%
• Current HPI: 320.1966
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.12%
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+397.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Listed $272,999 SCMLS
• 2026-01-01 Rental Removed $1,800 SCMLS
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $1,800 SCMLS
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $1,850 SCMLS
• 2025-06-26 Listed for Rent $1,975 SCMLS
• 2012-02-17 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2012-02-02 Sold (MLS) $50,000 SCMLS
• 2011-08-06 Listed $61,900 SCMLS
• 2005-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $159,900 Public Records
• 2005-04-11 Sold (MLS) $145,000 SCMLS
• 2005-02-20 Listed $149,900 SCMLS
• 1994-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $54,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,794 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.