1965 West Side Hwy #76 · Lexington, WA 98626

$39,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1989 3,921 sqft lot Est $67k · 41% under ↓ 46% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity to build in some sweat equity. This is in good condition just needs a little spruce up. This home is being sold AS IS. This is a 55 and older park. This home offers a large living space with an open concept with the living room, kitchen and eating area with a slider leading out to the sunroom you can enjoy all year long. Two nice sized bedrooms with the front bedroom having its own bath with walk-in shower. The full ball is located just down the hall. Outside you have a covered carport, covered deck and has storage plus a bonus room all on a lot that will require very little maintenance. Buyer to be park approved prior to an accepted offer.

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Storage
• Open concept

Tags

• LARGE LIVING SPACE
• OPEN CONCEPT
• SUNROOM
• COVERED CARPORT
• COVERED DECK
• STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Calculated living area approximately 924 square feet; Lot is about 0.09 acre
• Financial info: Accepted financing: Cash, Conventional; Buyer brokerage compensation: $2,000
• HOA & community: Land lease: $801/month; Park approved for sale; Senior community; Approximately 118 homes in the park

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water (Beacon Hill); Public sewer (Beacon Hill); Electric service (Cowlitz PUD)
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One level; Manufactured after 6/15/1976; Manufacture make Marlette, model 100; Property in fair condition; Mobile home remains on site
• Construction: Metal/vinyl and wood construction; Concrete ribbon foundation; Shingled roof not specified
• Exterior features: Metal/vinyl and wood exterior; Awnings; Wood products; Skirted with metal; Located on a paved dead-end street; Park amenities include clubhouse and common area

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 three-quarter bath; Includes 1 bathtub and 1 shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Electric energy source
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Double-pane windows; Skylights; Patio/porch/deck; Bath off primary; Extra finished room; Kitchen with eating space; Living room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $39k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $39k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 43.2% vs local median 3.5% in Lexington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kelso School District (suburban): math 35% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #191 of 291 in WA (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lexington Elementary (798 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 50% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 348 units permitted in Cowlitz County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $270 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cowlitz County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.1% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $38,415 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 43.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 131.79%
• DSCR: 6.86
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $66,528
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1965 West Side Hwy #46	0.04mi	2/2.0	924 (0%)	10mo	$55,000	$60	90
1965 West Side Hwy #48	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,008 (+9%)	9mo	$72,500	$72	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.61×
• Total profit: $72,225
• Equity at exit: $5,815

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.60×
• Total profit: $170,308
• Equity at exit: $3,372

Cash invested: $10,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98626

• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,891 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $885/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $1,199

Break-even live

Break-even rent $373

Max offer price $39,000

Occupancy floor 32%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,750
• Closing costs: $1,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
118 Chickadee Dr Kelso, WA	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,400	$2.23	43d	1	1.36mi
104 Solomon Rd Kelso, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	893	$1,950	$2.18	43d	7	1.47mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $39,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $39,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $39,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    remarks 668-char remark
14. 2026-06-02
    listed $39,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $885 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $885 · $74/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,691
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,185
• − Property taxes: −$885
• − Insurance: −$195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,815
• − Management: −$1,815
• − Depreciation: −$1,135
• Taxable income: $14,662
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,519
• After-tax cash flow: $10,873/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kelso School District
• NCES district ID: 5300003
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $47,840
• Composite: 39.83/100
• National rank: #7963
• State rank: #191 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lexington

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lexington, WA
• County: Cowlitz County · 77,527 people
• Metro: Longview, WA
• Population (ZIP): 26,892
• Household income: $75,528
• Rent vs Own: 31.5% rent · 68.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 722.0

Population outlook (Cowlitz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 104,780 people
• By 2030: 103,980 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 100,769 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 96,685 · -7.7%
• By 2075: 86,454 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 74,052 · -29.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cowlitz

• 2024 margin: R (+19.9) · D 38.7% · R 58.6% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.1pp toward R · 2008: 11.2pp · 2024: -19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.9 2020: R+17.4 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+4.4 2008: D+11.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -321.36%
• Current HPI: 262.8196
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.10%
• Metro: Longview, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-45.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $39,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-25 Sold (MLS) $55,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-06 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-22 Price Changed $58,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-15 Price Changed $70,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-01 Listed $72,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+13.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $885 · -10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.