33837 Constellation Dr · Shingletown, CA 96088

$259,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1985 0.49 ac lot Est $289k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled among the pines in the peaceful mountain community of Shingletown, this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers over 1,500 square feet of comfortable living surrounded by nature. Set in a serene wooded setting, the property provides the perfect blend of privacy, tranquility, and everyday convenience. Enjoy the beauty of mountain living while being just approximately five miles from local shopping, dining, and amenities, with Redding only a little over 30 minutes away for an easy commute or access to city conveniences. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, mountain retreat, or place to unwind among the trees, this inviting home offers space, charm, and the peaceful lifesty

Key facts

• Privacy
• Mountain community
• Tranquility

Tags

• MOUNTAIN COMMUNITY
• SERENE WOODED SETTING
• PRIVACY
• TRANQUILITY
• LOCAL SHOPPING
• DINING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; 220-volt electric
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels
• Construction: Wood siding; Slab foundation; Built as residential single family
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Level lot; Asphalt road access; Outbuilding; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Dryer; Refrigerator; Washer; Laminate flooring; No fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $95 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (18.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.7% in Shingletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#663 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, health & safety B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Shasta Union High (urban): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #122 of 517 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Black Butte Elementary (149 students, 74% FRL); Black Butte Junior High (75 students, 65% FRL); Foothill High (math 45% / reading 70%, grade C, #232 of 1,170 statewide, top 20%, 1,398 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 16% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,436 (18.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.58%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $288,512
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8118 Pine Forest Rd	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,650 (+5%)	22mo	$302,975	$184	60
8162 Star Trek Dr	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,413 (-10%)	23mo	$232,000	$164	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-35,994
• Equity at exit: $38,618

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-23,927
• Equity at exit: $22,394

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96088

• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,114 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,306/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,994

Max offer price $259,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $242	-5% $169	+0% $95	+5% $22	+10% $-51
Rent	-10% $-72	-5% $12	+0% $95	+5% $179	+10% $262
Rate	-1.0pp $226	-0.5pp $161	base $95	+0.5pp $28	+1.0pp $-40

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $259,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $259,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   pricedays on market $259,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $269,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $269,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $269,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $269,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $269,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $269,000 Active 10 DOM
18. 2026-05-20
    listed $269,000 Active
19. 2025-11-07
    soldstatus $240,000
20. 1994-05-04
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,306 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,968 · $164/mo
• Expected delta: +$663/yr (+$55/mo · 50.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 27 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,372
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$1,306
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,030
• − Management: −$2,030
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable loss: −$3,331
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$799
• After-tax cash flow: $1,944/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shasta Union High
• NCES district ID: 0636600
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,080
• Composite: 46.01/100
• National rank: #2532
• State rank: #122 of 517 in CA

Livability — Shingletown

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #663
• US rank: #20514

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shingletown, CA
• City population: 4,552
• Population (ZIP): 4,552

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Serbian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -127.35%
• Current HPI: 141.2725
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+348.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $269,000 SAOR
• 2025-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 1994-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,306 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.