200 W Tupper St · Buffalo, NY 14201

$374,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,096 sqft · MultiFamily · 127 Days on market

Built 1850 4,710 sqft lot $179/sqft · 26% below area Est $505k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

This beautifully renovated 3/2 allentown double has been completely updated for modern living. Highlights incl: Brand new Kitchens, and baths, all flooring, updated windows, and freshley painted throughout. Lower has elec fireplace inserts, and new 1st flr laundry. All new heating , and cooling units -2025, Newer circuit breakers, roof, and plumbing. Tired of alternate parking? Large garage off alley leading to your private gated yard, which accesses home, * seller offering a $5,000. appliance credit at closing (depending on price) adt security system incl. Along with front, and back cameras. Don’t miss!

Key facts

• Brand new baths
• New heating units
• Newer windows

Tags

• BRAND NEW KITCHENS
• BRAND NEW BATHS
• 1ST FLOOR LAUNDRY
• NEWER WINDOWS
• NEW HEATING UNITS
• NEW COOLING UNITS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-295 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $332k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $291k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 56 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,906/mo this rent would consume 86% of the median local household income ($41k/yr) (locally 1213% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1850 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $290,587 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1850 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.37%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $504,545
• List price: $374,900
• Delta: -25.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 West Ave	0.05mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,980 (-6%)	6mo	$390,000	$197	78
125 Whitney Pl	0.15mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,976 (-6%)	6mo	$310,000	$157	69
147 Mariner St	0.45mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,098 (+0%)	4mo	$365,000	$174	67
347 Prospect Ave	0.44mi	5/2.0	2,152 (+3%)	15mo	$115,000	$53	63
291 West Ave	0.53mi	5/2.0	2,140 (+2%)	12mo	$325,500	$152	62
250 West Ave	0.45mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,230 (+6%)	4mo	$375,000	$168	60
403 Busti Ave	0.56mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,132 (+2%)	12mo	$99,000	$46	56
402 Busti Ave	0.59mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,028 (-3%)	14mo	$80,000	$39	50
153 Allen St	0.39mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,374 (+13%)	9mo	$395,000	$166	43
35 Lakeview Ave	0.73mi	5/2.0	2,270 (+8%)	16mo	$135,000	$59	38
389 Jersey St	0.63mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,371 (+13%)	13mo	$250,000	$105	33
33 Lakeview Ave	0.72mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,409 (+15%)	11mo	$136,000	$56	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-75,718
• Equity at exit: $55,899

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-74,004
• Equity at exit: $32,415

Cash invested: $104,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14201

• Home prices YoY: -19.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,906 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,966
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$469 /mo · $5,624/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$610
• Net cashflow: $-295

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,280

Max offer price $332,182

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,725
• Closing costs: $11,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
184 14th St Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1950	$4,400	$2.26	23d	1	0.84mi
11 Hoyt St Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	2848	$1,775	$0.62	14d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 619-char remark

   Show marketing remark (619 chars)

   This beautifully renovated 3/2 allentown double has been completely updated for modern living. Highlights incl: Brand new Kitchens, and baths, all flooring, updated windows, and freshley painted throughout. Lower has elec fireplace inserts, and new 1st flr laundry. All new heating , and cooling units -2025, Newer circuit breakers, roof, and plumbing. Tired of alternate parking? Large garage off alley leading to your private gated yard, which accesses home, * seller offering a $5,000. appliance credit at closing (depending on price) adt security system incl. Along with front, and back cameras. Don’t miss!

2. 2026-05-04
   price $374,900 619-char remark

   Show marketing remark (619 chars)

   This beautifully renovated 3/2 allentown double has been completely updated for modern living. Highlights incl: Brand new Kitchens, and baths, all flooring, updated windows, and freshley painted throughout. Lower has elec fireplace inserts, and new 1st flr laundry. All new heating , and cooling units -2025, Newer circuit breakers, roof, and plumbing. Tired of alternate parking? Large garage off alley leading to your private gated yard, which accesses home, * seller offering a $5,000. appliance credit at closing (depending on price) adt security system incl. Along with front, and back cameras. Don’t miss!

3. 2026-02-23
   price $394,900 619-char remark

   Show marketing remark (619 chars)

   This beautifully renovated 3/2 allentown double has been completely updated for modern living. Highlights incl: Brand new Kitchens, and baths, all flooring, updated windows, and freshley painted throughout. Lower has elec fireplace inserts, and new 1st flr laundry. All new heating , and cooling units -2025, Newer circuit breakers, roof, and plumbing. Tired of alternate parking? Large garage off alley leading to your private gated yard, which accesses home, * seller offering a $5,000. appliance credit at closing (depending on price) adt security system incl. Along with front, and back cameras. Don’t miss!

4. 2026-01-12
   listed $425,000 Active 619-char remark

   Show marketing remark (619 chars)

   This beautifully renovated 3/2 allentown double has been completely updated for modern living. Highlights incl: Brand new Kitchens, and baths, all flooring, updated windows, and freshley painted throughout. Lower has elec fireplace inserts, and new 1st flr laundry. All new heating , and cooling units -2025, Newer circuit breakers, roof, and plumbing. Tired of alternate parking? Large garage off alley leading to your private gated yard, which accesses home, * seller offering a $5,000. appliance credit at closing (depending on price) adt security system incl. Along with front, and back cameras. Don’t miss!

5. 2025-03-06
   price $374,900
6. 2025-01-29
   price $349,900
7. 2024-12-02
   price $299,900
8. 2024-11-19
   listed $349,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,870
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,000
• − Property taxes: −$5,624
• − Insurance: −$1,874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,790
• − Management: −$2,790
• − Depreciation: −$10,906
• Taxable loss: −$10,113
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,427
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,115/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 12,369
• Household income: $40,512
• Rent vs Own: 76.4% rent · 23.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1213.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 36% Black 16% Two or more races 12% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 30% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Subsaharan African 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.73%
• Current HPI: 290.2643
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.28%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+7.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $374,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $394,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $425,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-03-06 Price Changed $374,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-01-29 Price Changed $349,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-12-02 Price Changed $299,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-11-19 Listed $349,900 WNYREIS