828 Knox St · Nahunta, GA 31553

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1990 0.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Corner Lot, half acre, good condition, House was remodeled about 12 years ago, added a metal roof, new kitchen, new electrical, new plumbing, added central H/A, interior trim, much more. Recently added ventilated underpinning around house, floor is spray foam, remainder of the house is fiberglass batts.

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• Built 1990
• Listed 17 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-125 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $98k (18.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $100k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $98k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#409 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A, crime A-; Watch: housing D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Brantley County (rural): math 48% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #26 of 174 in GA (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Brantley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Brantley County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $120k implies a 823% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,989 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.02%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $14,044
• Equity at exit: $61,891

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $52,463
• Equity at exit: $102,073

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31553

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $998 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,304/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $-125

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,156

Max offer price $97,989

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-57	-5% $-91	+0% $-125	+5% $-159	+10% $-193
Rent	-10% $-203	-5% $-164	+0% $-125	+5% $-85	+10% $-46
Rate	-1.0pp $-64	-0.5pp $-94	base $-125	+0.5pp $-156	+1.0pp $-187

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-16
   listed $120,000 Active
3. 2016-06-06
   historical
4. 2016-04-26
   listed $55,000
5. 1995-07-28
   soldstatus $13,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,304 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,304 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,978
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,304
• − Insurance: −$2,102
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$958
• − Management: −$958
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$3,558
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$854
• After-tax cash flow: $-641/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brantley County
• NCES district ID: 1300480
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $37,053
• Composite: 37.85/100
• National rank: #4328
• State rank: #26 of 174 in GA

Livability — Nahunta

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #409
• US rank: #20231

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nahunta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 4,815

Population outlook (Brantley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,422 people
• By 2030: 18,220 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 17,441 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 16,044 · -12.9%
• By 2075: 11,707 · -36.5%
• By 2100: 7,006 · -62.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brantley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+82.5) · D 8.7% · R 91.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.4pp toward R · 2008: -63.1pp · 2024: -82.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+82.5 2020: R+81.2 2016: R+78.6 2012: R+67.0 2008: R+63.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.15%
• Current HPI: 122.001
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+823.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Pending — GIAR
• 2026-03-16 Listed $120,000 GIAR
• 2016-06-06 Listing Removed — GIAR
• 2016-04-26 Listed $55,000 GIAR
• 1995-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $13,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,304 · +26.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.