169 Saunders Dr · Saw Creek, PA 18324

$249,000

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 268 Days on market

Built 1978 0.28 ac lot $198/sqft · at area comps Est $240k · at est. $164/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

No Showings at this time due to broken pipes. STR Permit in place. Mountain Home retreat with a rustic cabin theme nestled among the trees. ''Open Concept'' of Dining Room, Kitchen, Loft, Wood-Burning stove, private deck and firepit. Home was designed by interior decorator. Located in award winning Saw Creek Estates. Amenities include Indoor/Outdoor Swimming, outdoor Tennis Courts, Fitness Center, 2 Skiing Trails (they Make their Own Snow), 2 Lakes, Beach Area, Fishing Dock, pedal boats, row boats, Racquetball CT, Indoor/Outdoor Basketball CTs, Baseball Field, Playgrounds, Ice Skating & Full Restaurant / Bar. Close to Shawnee Ski Mountain, Cross Country Skiing, Smithfield Beach, Hiking/bike Trails, Kayaking, Mt. Airy Lodge, Great Wolf & Kalahari. Activities for all ages/all seasons. Basement has workshop and Laundry, Private deck with exterior lighting overlooking back yard.

Key facts

• Private deck
• Firepit
• Fitness center

Tags

• PRIVATE DECK
• FIREPIT
• INDOOR OUTDOOR SWIMMING
• OUTDOOR TENNIS COURTS
• FITNESS CENTER
• SKIING TRAILS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-409 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (29.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (26.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (29.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,538 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D, schools F.
• East Stroudsburg Area SD (rural): math 25% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #413 of 539 in PA (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 293 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 268 days — a 12% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $249k implies a 337% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,817 (29.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 268 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.03%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $239,806
• List price: $249,000
• Delta: 3.83%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5994 Decker Rd	0.33mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,275 (+1%)	21mo	$150,000	$118	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.51% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $10,816
• Equity at exit: $119,123

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $67,005
• Equity at exit: $189,357

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18324

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 293
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,836 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$285 /mo · $3,422/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$164
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-409

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,353

Max offer price $176,817

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-268	-5% $-338	+0% $-409	+5% $-479	+10% $-550
Rent	-10% $-554	-5% $-481	+0% $-409	+5% $-336	+10% $-264
Rate	-1.0pp $-283	-0.5pp $-345	base $-409	+0.5pp $-473	+1.0pp $-539

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $164 · $1,968/yr
• Likely covers: landscapinggym

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,000 Active 268 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $249,000 Active 266 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 265 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 264 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 263 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 262 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,000 Active 260 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 259 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,000 Active 257 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $249,000 Active 256 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,000 Active 255 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $249,000 Active 254 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $250,000 Active 251 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 249 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 248 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 247 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $250,000 Active 246 DOM
18. 2025-09-23
    listed $250,000 Active 898-char remark

    Show marketing remark (898 chars)

    No Showings at this time due to broken pipes. STR Permit in place. Mountain Home retreat with a rustic cabin theme nestled among the trees. ''Open Concept'' of Dining Room, Kitchen, Loft, Wood-Burning stove, private deck and firepit. Home was designed by interior decorator. Located in award winning Saw Creek Estates. Amenities include Indoor/Outdoor Swimming, outdoor Tennis Courts, Fitness Center, 2 Skiing Trails (they Make their Own Snow), 2 Lakes, Beach Area, Fishing Dock, pedal boats, row boats, Racquetball CT, Indoor/Outdoor Basketball CTs, Baseball Field, Playgrounds, Ice Skating & Full Restaurant / Bar. Close to Shawnee Ski Mountain, Cross Country Skiing, Smithfield Beach, Hiking/bike Trails, Kayaking, Mt. Airy Lodge, Great Wolf & Kalahari. Activities for all ages/all seasons. Basement has workshop and Laundry, Private deck with exterior lighting overlooking back yard.

19. 2024-03-03
    historical $1,850
20. 2024-01-23
    listed $1,850
21. 2019-02-08
    soldstatus $57,000 338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    2 Bedroom 1.5 Bath Dutch Colonial with Basement. Well maintained home boasts wood beam cathedral ceilings, wood stove, modern kitchen, open floor plan, back deck for entertaining, loft is Master bedroom with 1/2 bath. Basement has work shop and laundry Saw Creek offers plenty of activities all year round! Check out the amenity pictures

22. 2018-11-17
    listed $59,777 338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    2 Bedroom 1.5 Bath Dutch Colonial with Basement. Well maintained home boasts wood beam cathedral ceilings, wood stove, modern kitchen, open floor plan, back deck for entertaining, loft is Master bedroom with 1/2 bath. Basement has work shop and laundry Saw Creek offers plenty of activities all year round! Check out the amenity pictures

23. 2014-01-04
    listed $56,000
24. 2009-12-18
    soldstatus $79,394
25. 1996-06-11
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,422 · $285/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,678 · $307/mo
• Expected delta: +$256/yr (+$21/mo · 7.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,027
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$3,422
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,762
• − Management: −$1,762
• − HOA: −$1,968
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$9,324
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,238
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,666/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Stroudsburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4208670
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $57,142
• Composite: 30.13/100
• National rank: #6332
• State rank: #413 of 539 in PA

Livability — Saw Creek

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1538
• US rank: #20241

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saw Creek, PA
• Population (ZIP): 9,591

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 21% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 3% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Estonian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 19% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.51%
• Current HPI: 243.6754
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+525.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-23 Listed $250,000 PMAR
• 2024-03-03 Rental Removed $1,850 PMAR
• 2024-01-23 Listed for Rent $1,850 PMAR
• 2019-02-08 Sold (MLS) $57,000 PMAR
• 2018-11-17 Listed $59,777 PMAR
• 2014-01-04 Listed $56,000 PMAR
• 2009-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $79,394 Public Records
• 1996-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,422 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.