812 W 5th St · Mount Carmel, PA 17851

$69,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 843 sqft · Townhouse · 3 Days on market

Built 1900

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

|JUST RENTED| TENANT PAYS $975.00 AND ALL EXPENSES | SPACIOUS 2 BEDROOMS WITH A WALKTHROUGH 3RD BEDROOM | 1.5 BATHROOMS | AMPLE STORAGE SPACE | FENCED BACKYARD | OFF-STREET PARKING | ADD THIS RENTAL PROPERTY INTO YOUR PORTFOLIO TODAY | DON'T MISS OUT ON THIS GREAT OPPORTUNITY | CONTACT TODAY FOR MORE DETAILS |

Key facts

• Large eat in kitchen
• Pull down attic
• Living room

Tags

• LIVING ROOM
• LARGE EAT IN KITCHEN
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• DETACHED GARAGE
• PULL DOWN ATTIC

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Improvement assessed value: $1,810; Land assessed value: $140; Tax assessed value: $1,950; Tax year 2025

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Fee simple ownership; Property in average condition
• Construction: Stone construction; Stone foundation; Above- and below-grade structures; Estimated year built
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone; Lot roughly 12 x 150 feet

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (upper level); One half bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating; Window air conditioning units; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Estimated living area; Basement with dirt floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $464 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#641 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: commute F, employment F.
• Mount Carmel Area SD (town): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #455 of 539 in PA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Mount Carmel Area Hs (math 57% / reading 75%, grade B, #62 of 437 statewide, top 14%, 493 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 50% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 66% at this address vs 28% district-wide (+38 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Mount Carmel Area SD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 81 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Northumberland County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $70k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $69,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.84%
• DSCR: 2.42
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $31,191
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
346 Beech St	0.33mi	2/1.0	843 (0%)	2mo	$58,000	$69	81
231 S Poplar St	0.41mi	2/1.5	759 (-10%)	16mo	$28,000	$37	50
338 S Apple St	0.67mi	2/1.0	900 (+7%)	13mo	$52,000	$58	45
151 E Saylor St	0.49mi	2/1.0	900 (+7%)	24mo	$32,500	$36	44
211 E Saylor St	0.49mi	2/1.0	912 (+8%)	23mo	$25,000	$27	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.61×
• Total profit: $51,035
• Equity at exit: $45,326

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.47×
• Total profit: $126,685
• Equity at exit: $83,419

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17851

• Home prices YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,183 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$20 /mo · $238/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $464

Break-even live

Break-even rent $596

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
414 W 4th St Mount Carmel, PA	3.0	1.5	900	$1,450	$1.61	43d	1	0.29mi
137 W 4th St Unit 100 Mt Carmel, PA	1.0	1.0	1000	$850	$0.85	43d	1	0.50mi
410 East Ave Mt Carmel, PA	1.0	1.0	640	$795	$1.24	43d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   remarks 472-char remark
4. 2026-06-16
   listed $69,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $238 · $20/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $671 · $56/mo
• Expected delta: +$433/yr (+$36/mo · 182.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,201
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$238
• − Insurance: −$1,016
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,136
• − Management: −$1,136
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $4,726
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,134
• After-tax cash flow: $4,432/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Carmel Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4215990
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $35,195
• Composite: 23.48/100
• National rank: #7876
• State rank: #455 of 539 in PA

Livability — Mount Carmel

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #641
• US rank: #6230

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,174

Population outlook (Northumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,896 people
• By 2030: 89,084 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 84,822 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 80,521 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 72,152 · -20.6%
• By 2100: 62,257 · -31.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Subsaharan African 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Northumberland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.6% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.1pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+38.5 2016: R+43.6 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.31%
• Current HPI: 127.4102
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+40.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $69,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2024-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2024-12-05 Sold (MLS) $55,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-11-12 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-10-03 Listed $64,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2024-05-31 Sold (MLS) $45,000 CSVBR
• 2024-05-10 Pending — CSVBR
• 2024-04-25 Listed $49,900 CSVBR

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $238 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.