15360 Wagon Wheel Dr · Chandler, TX 75758

$349,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,267 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2003 $154/sqft · 10% below area Est $387k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Country living with a twist of city slick. This 3 BR 2 Bath home has been immaculately maintained in sought Brownsboro ISD. Located in peaceful addition with well manicured lawns, this . 3 acre tract has an outdoor oasis great for enjoying the sounds of nature while sipping a fresh cup of morning coffee or evenings entertaining with friends and family. Outdoor Deck sits over creek, and pergola lights up at night. Too much to list.

Key facts

• Large windows
• Half-acre lot
• Cozy fireplace

Tags

• FARGO ESTATES SUBDIVISION
• SCENIC WOODED BACKDROP
• HALF-ACRE LOT
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• LARGE WINDOWS
• COZY FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Concrete parking surface
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family detached residence; One story
• Construction: Brick and stone exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Storage structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Garbage disposal
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heat (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Pantry; Skylight(s); Gas log fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $349k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $126 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $349k).
• Recommended offer: $344k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.8% in Chandler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#347 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Brownsboro ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #290 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chandler El (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 450 students, 74% FRL); Chandler Int (math 39% / reading 35%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 253 students, 70% FRL); Brownsboro H S (math 31% / reading 63%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 757 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 225 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($344k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $349k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $343,765 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.36%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $387,307
• List price: $349,000
• Delta: 2.24%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-48,349
• Equity at exit: $52,037

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-31,011
• Equity at exit: $30,175

Cash invested: $97,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75758

• Home prices YoY: -27.6%
• Active inventory: 225
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,495 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax from tax record: −$593 /mo · $7,118/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$734
• Net cashflow: $126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,336

Max offer price $349,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,250
• Closing costs: $10,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15233 Wagon Wheel Cir Chandler, TX	4.0	3.5	3283	$3,495	$1.06	43d	1	0.10mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $349,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $349,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $349,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $349,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $349,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $349,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on marketlisting id $349,000 Active 1 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $396,000 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $396,000 Active 70 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $396,000 Active 69 DOM
16. 2026-03-22
    listed $396,000 Active 1628-char remark
17. 2026-02-23
    price $414,000
18. 2026-01-09
    price $429,000
19. 2016-07-28
    soldstatus Sold

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    Country living with a twist of city slick. This 3 BR 2 Bath home has been immaculately maintained in sought Brownsboro ISD. Located in peaceful addition with well manicured lawns, this . 3 acre tract has an outdoor oasis great for enjoying the sounds of nature while sipping a fresh cup of morning coffee or evenings entertaining with friends and family. Outdoor Deck sits over creek, and pergola lights up at night. Too much to list.

20. 2016-07-26
    soldstatus
21. 2016-07-26
    soldstatus
22. 2016-06-14
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    Country living with a twist of city slick. This 3 BR 2 Bath home has been immaculately maintained in sought Brownsboro ISD. Located in peaceful addition with well manicured lawns, this . 3 acre tract has an outdoor oasis great for enjoying the sounds of nature while sipping a fresh cup of morning coffee or evenings entertaining with friends and family. Outdoor Deck sits over creek, and pergola lights up at night. Too much to list.

23. 2016-06-13
    listed $225,000
24. 2016-06-06
    listed $225,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    Country living with a twist of city slick. This 3 BR 2 Bath home has been immaculately maintained in sought Brownsboro ISD. Located in peaceful addition with well manicured lawns, this . 3 acre tract has an outdoor oasis great for enjoying the sounds of nature while sipping a fresh cup of morning coffee or evenings entertaining with friends and family. Outdoor Deck sits over creek, and pergola lights up at night. Too much to list.

25. 2016-06-06
    listed $225,000

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    Country living with a twist of city slick. This 3 BR 2 Bath home has been immaculately maintained in sought Brownsboro ISD. Located in peaceful addition with well manicured lawns, this . 3 acre tract has an outdoor oasis great for enjoying the sounds of nature while sipping a fresh cup of morning coffee or evenings entertaining with friends and family. Outdoor Deck sits over creek, and pergola lights up at night. Too much to list.

26. 2006-07-11
    soldstatus
27. 2002-07-01
    soldstatus $175,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,118 · $593/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,118 · $593/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,549
• − Property taxes: −$7,118
• − Insurance: −$2,542
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,355
• − Management: −$3,355
• − Depreciation: −$10,153
• Taxable loss: −$4,133
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$992
• After-tax cash flow: $2,502/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811640
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,624
• Composite: 37.38/100
• National rank: #4429
• State rank: #290 of 826 in TX

Livability — Chandler

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #347
• US rank: #7634

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,357

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.16%
• Current HPI: 192.0837
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+99.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $349,000 GTAR
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $414,000 GTAR
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $429,000 GTAR
• 2016-07-28 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2016-07-26 Sold (MLS) — HCBOR
• 2016-07-26 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2016-06-14 Pending — NTREIS
• 2016-06-13 Listed $225,000 GTAR
• 2016-06-06 Listed $225,000 NTREIS
• 2016-06-06 Listed $225,000 HCBOR
• 2006-07-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,118 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.