3536 Night Star Ter · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34219

$332,500

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,849 sqft · Land · 11 Days on market

Built 2025 6,000 sqft lot $266/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

THIS HOME IS READY FOR YOU NOW!! Embracing the spirit of small-town charm, Rye Ranch® introduces new traditions that bring people together in Parrish, FL. For those who call it home, this community puts you close to countless shopping, dining and entertainment options. Embark on adventures like never before at amazing parks and recreational sites just nearby. Right across the street are highly rated schools, perfect for growing families. This single-story home features a split floorplan that divides the comfortable bedrooms with an open layout among the dining room, kitchen and family room. An attached lanai offers indoor-outdoor hosting opportunities, while the nearby owner’s sui

Key facts

• Highly rated schools
• Split floorplan
• Spa-style bathroom

Tags

• SPLIT FLOORPLAN
• ATTACHED LANAI
• OVERSIZED WALK-IN CLOSET
• SPA-STYLE BATHROOM
• HIGHLY RATED SCHOOLS
• PARKS RECREATIONAL SITES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $332k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-308 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $278k (16.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $262k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $262k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gene Witt Elementary School (math 84% / reading 82%, grade A+, #65 of 2,144 statewide, top 3%, 689 students, 24% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2194 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $261,723 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.97%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-81,087
• Equity at exit: $49,577

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-125,167
• Equity at exit: $28,749

Cash invested: $93,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2194
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,617 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,744
• Tax from tax record: −$228 /mo · $2,731/yr
• Insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$266
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$550
• Net cashflow: $-308

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,007

Max offer price $278,067

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-120	-5% $-214	+0% $-308	+5% $-402	+10% $-496
Rent	-10% $-515	-5% $-412	+0% $-308	+5% $-205	+10% $-101
Rate	-1.0pp $-141	-0.5pp $-224	base $-308	+0.5pp $-394	+1.0pp $-482

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,125
• Closing costs: $9,975
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2726 Greenleaf Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1651	$2,200	$1.33	25d	1	0.95mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $266 · $3,192/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-20
   status Active
3. 2026-03-20
   price $332,500
4. 2025-12-22
   status Pending
5. 2025-12-16
   listed $412,091 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,731 · $228/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,760 · $230/mo
• Expected delta: +$29/yr (+$2/mo · 1.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,407
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,625
• − Property taxes: −$2,731
• − Insurance: −$1,662
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,513
• − Management: −$2,513
• − HOA: −$3,192
• − Depreciation: −$9,673
• Taxable loss: −$9,501
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,280
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,417/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,296
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-19.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $332,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-16 Listed $412,091 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid