486 Grubb Rd · Lexington, NC 27295

$271,997

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,710 sqft · SingleFamily · 118 Days on market

Built 2026 0.72 ac lot Est $275k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New construction in Lexington with over 1700 sq ft, 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. Main level open floor plan with additional den/flex room. Granite countertops and stainless-steel appliances in the kitchen. Large primary bedroom with vaulted ceiling and walk-in closet. Rear patio and covered front porch. No HOA.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Open floor plan
• Den flex room

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• DEN FLEX ROOM
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• REAR PATIO
• COVERED FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces); Driveway
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer; Electric water heater; Public water
• Home design: Residential stick/site-built house; New construction (built 2026); Two levels; Slab entry/foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation; New construction (2026)
• Exterior features: No fencing; Public water; Road maintenance agreement

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Dishwasher; Free-standing range
• Bedrooms: Main-level bedroom (Den); Second-level bedrooms (multiple): dimensions include 12'10" x 17'0", 12'0" x 12'6", 11'2" x 12'0", 10'9" x 11'10"
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling; Electric heating fuel
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Pantry; Vaulted ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer connection on main level; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $272k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-100 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (17.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.5% in Lexington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#89 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities D-, employment F.
• Davidson County Schools (rural): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #62 of 178 in NC (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Reeds Elementary (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #497 of 1,410 statewide, top 38%, 266 students, 67% FRL); Tyro Middle (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #238 of 475 statewide, top 51%, 561 students, 58% FRL); West Davidson High (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C-, #270 of 535 statewide, top 52%, 725 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 39% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 351 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 990 units permitted in Davidson County in 2024 (54 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Davidson County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($248k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,276 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.58%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $275,310
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
807 Rowe Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,958 (+14%)	13mo	$315,000	$161	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-49,570
• Equity at exit: $40,556

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-47,750
• Equity at exit: $23,517

Cash invested: $76,159 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27295

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 351
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,253 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,426
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$340 /mo · $4,080/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $-100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,379

Max offer price $257,523

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,999
• Closing costs: $8,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
152 Iroquois Trl Lexington, NC	3.0	2.5	1828	$2,010	$1.10	14d	1	1.06mi
500 Rylee Ln Lexington, NC	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,550	$1.29	14d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $271,997 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $271,997 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $271,997 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $271,997 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $271,997 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $271,997 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $271,997 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $271,997 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $271,997 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $274,997 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $274,997 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $274,997 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $274,997 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $274,997 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $274,997 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $274,997 Active 100 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $274,997 Active 99 DOM
18. 2026-02-20
    listed $274,997 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,033
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,236
• − Property taxes: −$4,080
• − Insurance: −$1,360
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,163
• − Management: −$2,163
• − Depreciation: −$7,913
• Taxable loss: −$5,881
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,411
• After-tax cash flow: $211/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Davidson County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3701140
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,696
• Composite: 42.76/100
• National rank: #3157
• State rank: #62 of 178 in NC

Livability — Lexington

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #89
• US rank: #6051

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Davidson County · 129,088 people
• City population: 79,578
• Metro: Winston-Salem, NC
• Population (ZIP): 39,267
• Household income: $63,961
• Rent vs Own: 24.5% rent · 75.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 733.0

Population outlook (Davidson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 167,156 people
• By 2030: 167,216 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 164,524 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 157,229 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 138,084 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 112,729 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 6% Two or more races 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Davidson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+47.5 2016: R+49.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.39%
• Current HPI: 258.6557
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.37%
• Metro: Winston-Salem, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-20 Listed $274,997 Triad MLS