8500 Kern Canyon Rd #66 · East Niles, CA 93306

$78,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · Manufactured public records · 136 Days on market

Built 1969 3,200 sqft lot $56/sqft · 25% below area Est $104k · 25% under $465/mo HOA · 28% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful mobile home located in the Niles East Mobile Estates 55 + community, very quiet and peaceful. This home is well maintained and cared for by the owner. Home features 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, wood floors throughout, granite kitchen counter tops, upgraded lighting and ceiling fans, a step in shower. This mobile home is handicap assessable. There is also a shed outside perfect for all your personal belongings. Walking distance from the community pool with a spa, and plenty of guest parking. This is perfect and suitable for the next homeowner. A must see to appreciate. Call to schedule your appointment.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Shed outside
• 3,200 sq ft lot

Tags

• NILES EAST MOBILE ESTATES
• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTER TOPS
• COMMUNITY POOL
• SHED OUTSIDE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $78k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $351 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $78k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 4.4% in East Niles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $539 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 34y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 4→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.30%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $104,224
• List price: $78,000
• Delta: -25.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8500 Kern Canyon Rd #139	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-3%)	3mo	$74,000	$55	92
8536 Kern Canyon Rd #73	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	2mo	$105,000	$73	84
8536 Kern Canyon Rd #186	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	3mo	$129,900	$90	83
9108 Eastwind Cir	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,404 (+1%)	7mo	$245,000	$175	82
8536 Kern Canyon Rd #44	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-3%)	6mo	$63,000	$47	81
8536 Kern Canyon Rd #136	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,430 (+3%)	8mo	$125,000	$87	81
8300 Kern Canyon Rd #150	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-3%)	1mo	$93,000	$69	80
8536 Kern Canyon Rd #100	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-3%)	8mo	$105,000	$78	79
9305 Eastwind Cir	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-3%)	6mo	$250,000	$186	74
8300 Kern Canyon Rd #93	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-10%)	2mo	$68,000	$54	74
8536 Kern Canyon Rd #146	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-10%)	8mo	$85,000	$68	68
8904 Eastwind Cir	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-10%)	6mo	$285,000	$228	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $8,758
• Equity at exit: $11,630

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $32,501
• Equity at exit: $6,744

Cash invested: $21,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93306

• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,654 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $584/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$465
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $351

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,209

Max offer price $78,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $395	-5% $373	+0% $351	+5% $329	+10% $307
Rent	-10% $221	-5% $286	+0% $351	+5% $417	+10% $482
Rate	-1.0pp $391	-0.5pp $371	base $351	+0.5pp $331	+1.0pp $310

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,500
• Closing costs: $2,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3217 Fortier St Unit B Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1072	$1,650	$1.54	3d	1	0.42mi
600 Morning Dr Unit 661-363-6434 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1054	$1,067	$1.01	44d	1	0.75mi
600 Morning Dr Unit 661-363-6434 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	884	$1,005	$1.14	3d	1	0.75mi
7000 College Ave Apt 168 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	957	$1,655	$1.73	19d	1	0.97mi
8817 Butternut Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1383	$2,200	$1.59	3d	1	0.98mi
9802 Krista Vineyard Way Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,195	$1.69	3d	1	1.40mi
6900 Valleyview Dr Apt 127 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	975	$1,535	$1.57	44d	1	1.49mi
6900 Valleyview Dr Unit 152 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,610	$1.55	3d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $465 · $5,580/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $78,000 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $78,000 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $78,000 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $78,000 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $78,000 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $78,000 Active 128 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $78,000 Active 127 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $78,000 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $78,000 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $78,000 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $78,000 Active 121 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $78,000 Active 120 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $78,000 Active 119 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $78,000 Active 118 DOM
15. 2026-02-02
    listed $78,000 Active 615-char remark

    Show marketing remark (615 chars)

    Beautiful mobile home located in the Niles East Mobile Estates 55 + community, very quiet and peaceful. This home is well maintained and cared for by the owner. Home features 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, wood floors throughout, granite kitchen counter tops, upgraded lighting and ceiling fans, a step in shower. This mobile home is handicap assessable. There is also a shed outside perfect for all your personal belongings. Walking distance from the community pool with a spa, and plenty of guest parking. This is perfect and suitable for the next homeowner. A must see to appreciate. Call to schedule your appointment.

16. 2025-09-04
    price $78,000
17. 2025-05-14
    status Active
18. 2025-03-13
    status Pending
19. 2024-12-02
    listed $85,500 Active
20. 2024-05-29
    listed $85,500 Active
21. 2024-05-10
    price $85,500
22. 2024-05-01
    price $99,999
23. 2021-02-23
    soldstatus $55,000 Sold
24. 2021-02-23
    soldstatus $55,000 Closed Sale
25. 2021-02-09
    status Pending Sale
26. 2021-02-08
    status Pending
27. 2021-02-04
    historical Active - Contingent
28. 2020-12-08
    listed $55,000 Active
29. 2020-12-01
    listed $55,000 Active
30. 1999-09-14
    soldstatus $17,000
31. 1999-09-02
    historical
32. 1999-09-02
    price $19,000
33. 1999-08-26
    listed $17,000
34. 1993-02-04
    soldstatus $20,000
35. 1992-12-07
    historical
36. 1992-12-07
    price $22,000
37. 1992-10-30
    listed $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $584 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $593 · $49/mo
• Expected delta: +$9/yr (+$1/mo · 1.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 4 d/yr ≥105°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,845
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,369
• − Property taxes: −$584
• − Insurance: −$390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,588
• − Management: −$1,588
• − HOA: −$5,580
• − Depreciation: −$2,269
• Taxable income: $3,477
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$835
• After-tax cash flow: $3,380/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kern High
• NCES district ID: 0619540
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,686
• Composite: 33.68/100
• National rank: #10443
• State rank: #860 of 1400 in CA

Livability — East Niles

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Niles, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 74,116
• Household income: $69,805
• Rent vs Own: 36.2% rent · 63.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2871.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% White 23% Two or more races 20% Black 3% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 63%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 46% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -323.02%
• Current HPI: 358.5434
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.24%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+290.0% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-02 Listed $78,000 GEMLS
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $78,000 GEMLS
• 2025-05-14 Relisted — GEMLS
• 2025-03-13 Pending — GEMLS
• 2024-12-02 Listed $85,500 GEMLS
• 2024-05-29 Listed $85,500 GEMLS
• 2024-05-10 Price Changed $85,500 GEMLS
• 2024-05-01 Price Changed $99,999 GEMLS
• 2021-02-23 Sold (MLS) $55,000 CRMLS
• 2021-02-23 Sold (MLS) $55,000 GEMLS
• 2021-02-09 Pending — CRMLS
• 2021-02-08 Pending — GEMLS
• 2021-02-04 Contingent — GEMLS
• 2020-12-08 Listed $55,000 CRMLS
• 2020-12-01 Listed $55,000 GEMLS
• 1999-09-14 Sold (MLS) $17,000 GEMLS
• 1999-09-02 Price Changed $19,000 GEMLS
• 1999-09-02 Delisted — GEMLS
• 1999-08-26 Listed $17,000 GEMLS
• 1993-02-04 Sold (MLS) $20,000 GEMLS
• 1992-12-07 Price Changed $22,000 GEMLS
• 1992-12-07 Delisted — GEMLS
• 1992-10-30 Listed $20,000 GEMLS

Property tax history

+10.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $584 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.