344 Northway Park Rd #4 · Machesney Park, IL 61115

$134,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,144 sqft · Townhouse · 19 Days on market

Built 1971 Good condition Est $120k · 12% over $250/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.0/15.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Amazing River Views and Investment Potential! This townhouse style 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath condo offers a rare opportunity in a desirable Machesney Park location. Situated in a 6-unit building, this property can be rented, making it an excellent option for investors or owner-occupants alike. Enjoy stunning river views and there is a private fenced area out the sliding glass doors. Vinyl Plank flooring in the living room. Kitchen Features abundant cabinet and counter space and appliances are included. New carpet has been installed upstairs, and the finished basement area offers additional living space for a family room, office, or hobby space. Dedicated parking adds everyday convenience. As an a

Key facts

• Rental potential
• Private fenced area
• River views

Tags

• RIVER VIEWS
• PRIVATE FENCED AREA
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• FINISHED BASEMENT AREA
• DEDICATED PARKING
• RENTAL POTENTIAL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Six units in the building; Living area is estimated
• HOA & community: HOA fee $250 monthly; HOA covers water, exterior maintenance, lawn care, trash service and snow removal; Pets allowed (cats and dogs), maximum pet weight around 50 lbs

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Attached single, townhouse — 2 story; Entry level is 1; Fee simple ownership with homeowners association
• Construction: Brick construction; Built 51–60 years ago; Property built before 1978
• Exterior features: Public water; Public sewer

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level (16 x 12)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (master and two additional bedrooms on the second floor)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Six total rooms; Full unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $135k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $133 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $133k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.9% in Machesney Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#244 in IL, #4,425 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Harlem UD 122 (suburban): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #418 of 620 in IL (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Donald C Parker Early Educ Center (553 students, 0% FRL); Harlem Middle School (math 13% / reading 19%, grade F, #488 of 665 statewide, top 74%, 957 students, 0% FRL); Harlem High School (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #350 of 693 statewide, top 51%, 1,875 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 45% district-wide (45 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $132,876 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.21%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $120,120
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
338 Northway Park RD Unit 6 Rd	0.09mi	3/1.5	1,144 (0%)	5mo	$120,000	$105	91
341 Northway Park RD #5 Rd	0.17mi	3/1.5	1,144 (0%)	13mo	$90,000	$79	81
340 Northway Park Rd #6	0.06mi	3/1.5	1,144 (0%)	22mo	$106,000	$93	79
8644 Victory Ln #0	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,280 (+12%)	4mo	$159,000	$124	64
8628 Victory Ln	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,280 (+12%)	7mo	$165,000	$129	63
8628 Victory Ln Unit 4-8628	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,280 (+12%)	7mo	$165,000	$129	63
231 Northway Park Rd #12	0.14mi	2/1.0 (-1)	990 (-14%)	12mo	$100,000	$101	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-13,238
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $71
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61115

• Home prices YoY: -34.6%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,664 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,024/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,497

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $226	-5% $179	+0% $133	+5% $86	+10% $39
Rent	-10% $1	-5% $67	+0% $133	+5% $198	+10% $264
Rate	-1.0pp $201	-0.5pp $167	base $133	+0.5pp $98	+1.0pp $62

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1028 Minns Dr Unit 1028-D Machesney Park, IL	3.0	2.0	1228	$1,850	$1.51	23d	1	1.00mi
1051 Minns Dr Unit 1051-3 Machesney Park, IL	2.0	2.0	1208	$1,700	$1.41	15d	1	1.02mi
7705 Randy Rd Machesney Park, IL	3.0	1.0	760	$1,250	$1.64	15d	1	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-23
   statusdays on market $134,900 Pending 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $134,900 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $134,900 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,900 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,900 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,900 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,900 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $134,900 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $134,900 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $134,900 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $134,900 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $134,900 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
14. 2026-06-07
    listed $134,900 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,972
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$2,024
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,598
• − Management: −$1,598
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable loss: −$402
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$97
• After-tax cash flow: $1,687/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained townhouse in Machesney Park offers a good investment opportunity with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed. The property's location, river views, and private fenced area make it an attractive option for investors or owner-occupants.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — New carpet can improve comfort and add value.
• Both Clean HVAC filters — A clean HVAC system can improve air quality and energy efficiency, enhancing both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — New carpet can improve comfort and add value. ↑
• Both Clean HVAC filters — A clean HVAC system can improve air quality and energy efficiency, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlem UD 122
• NCES district ID: 1718240
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,228
• Composite: 18.01/100
• National rank: #8982
• State rank: #418 of 620 in IL

Livability — Machesney Park

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #244
• US rank: #4425

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Machesney Park, IL
• City population: 22,424
• Population (ZIP): 22,424

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.28%
• Current HPI: 272.5522
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $134,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid