4814 Pine Cliff Dr · Houston, TX 77084

$240,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,751 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1980 7,130 sqft lot Est $250k · at est. $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 4814 Pine Cliff Drive, a beautifully fully updated 4-bedroom, 2-bath home nestled in the established community of Bear Creek Village! Thoughtfully redesigned with modern touches throughout, this move-in-ready home offers the perfect blend of style, comfort, and functionality. Step inside to discover a bright and inviting layout featuring updated finishes, contemporary design elements, and spacious living areas ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The well-appointed kitchen and refreshed living spaces create a warm, elevated feel, while the generously sized bedrooms provide comfort and flexibility for any lifestyle. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, parks, an

Key facts

• 7,130 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1980

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: Hunters Park Community Association with an annual fee of $475

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1980; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 16 x 13); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 11); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 10); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10 x 11)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Decorative electric free-standing fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-104 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (12.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bear Creek El (math 23% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 668 students, 84% FRL); Cardiff J H (math 34% / reading 40%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 863 students, 84% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 27% district-wide (41 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 44% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Katy ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 505 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,458 (12.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.85%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $250,393
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5022 Pine Cliff Dr	0.25mi	4/3.0	1,719 (-2%)	2mo	$249,000	$145	79
15615 Four Leaf Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,823 (+4%)	1mo	$249,000	$137	76
4934 Pine Cliff Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,652 (-6%)	2mo	$219,000	$133	75
5043 Whispering Falls Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,791 (+2%)	1mo	$289,900	$162	64
15834 Sandy Hill Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,706 (-3%)	2mo	$264,400	$155	60
15603 Boulder Oaks Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,813 (+4%)	1mo	$232,000	$128	60
5319 Prairie Creek Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,667 (-5%)	2mo	$265,000	$159	58
5307 Prairie Creek Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,851 (+6%)	2mo	$265,000	$143	58
5031 Whispering Falls Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,596 (-9%)	1mo	$219,990	$138	50
15642 Pagehurst Dr	0.68mi	4/2.5	1,908 (+9%)	2mo	$290,000	$152	49
15910 Haven Hills Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,942 (+11%)	1mo	$220,000	$113	46
16010 Sunbeam River Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,958 (+12%)	0mo	$260,000	$133	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.4% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-35,003
• Equity at exit: $53,400

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-47,184
• Equity at exit: $52,298

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77084

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 505
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,105 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$368 /mo · $4,412/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $-104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,236

Max offer price $221,689

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $32	-5% $-36	+0% $-104	+5% $-172	+10% $-240
Rent	-10% $-270	-5% $-187	+0% $-104	+5% $-21	+10% $63
Rate	-1.0pp $17	-0.5pp $-43	base $-104	+0.5pp $-166	+1.0pp $-229

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15631 Cascade Point Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1904	$1,926	$1.01	7d	1	0.18mi
4719 Hidden Springs Dr Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2131	$2,465	$1.16	1d	1	0.24mi
15802 Echo Canyon Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1709	$1,699	$0.99	24d	1	0.26mi
4614 Cloudmount Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1823	$2,290	$1.26	4d	1	0.59mi
15619 Fern Ridge Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1958	$2,335	$1.19	26d	1	0.62mi
15907 Red Willow Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1744	$1,920	$1.10	45d	1	0.74mi
4407 Hickory Grove Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1486	$1,850	$1.24	45d	1	0.87mi
16430 Sheffield Run Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2227	$2,249	$1.01	9d	1	1.17mi
16327 Dounreay Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,779	$1.04	4d	1	1.20mi
6102 Crakston St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1862	$1,850	$0.99	45d	1	1.24mi
13602 Somersworth Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2477	$2,400	$0.97	45d	1	1.45mi
16662 Royal Mile Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1438	$3,250	$2.26	20d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $240,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $240,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $240,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $240,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $240,000 Active
16. 2001-04-25
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,412 · $368/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,412 · $368/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,255
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$4,412
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,020
• − Management: −$2,020
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$5,304
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,273
• After-tax cash flow: $29/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 110,217
• Household income: $80,575
• Rent vs Own: 40.0% rent · 60.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3257.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% Two or more races 22% White 22% Black 16% Asian 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 38% Other Indo-European 5% Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.40%
• Current HPI: 251.8474
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.89%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2001-04-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,412 · +11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.