165 Roses Grove Rd · North Sea, NY 11976

$3,150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1980 0.95 ac lot $2188/sqft · 190% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Amazing opportunity to own in the Hamptons. Nestled on a shy acre, this contemporary is more than meets the eye! What was once a rolling landscape of Botanical gardens now holds endless possibilities. The property still holds the blue prints of the gardens that once covered the landscape with existing privacy trees and flowering shrubbery, stone walls, slate patios and a pergola. Don't let the property distract you from what the home has to offer! Open floor plan, drenched with natural light, 3 large bedrooms, 2 full renovated baths, large eat in kitchen, cabinets galore and granite counter tops. Hardwood floors, recessed lighting, wood burning fireplace and so much more at this amazing low price!

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Quartz countertops
• 10 foot skylight

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• PRIVATE WOODED SCENERY
• EXPANSIVE OPEN KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• 10 FOOT SKYLIGHT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $3.15M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14k ($162k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($45k rent vs $3.15M).
• Recommended offer: $3.06M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 6.5% in North Sea — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,063 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Southampton Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #293 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southampton Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 376 students, 51% FRL); Southampton Intermediate School (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #437 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 363 students, 44% FRL); Southampton High School (math 98%, 595 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 30% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+30.1%/yr); 52 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $294k of equity ($22k loan paydown + $272k appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (8.6% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $882k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$471k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($3.06M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $345k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $1.20M; list at $3.15M implies a 162% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $3,055,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.39%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,661,464
• List price: $3,150,000
• Delta: 89.59%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

8.63% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.86×
• Total profit: $2,523,317
• Equity at exit: $2,529,625

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.9%
• Equity multiple: 9.26×
• Total profit: $7,288,303
• Equity at exit: $5,157,362

Cash invested: $882,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11976

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Rents YoY: 30.1%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $44,662 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$16,519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$3,938 /mo · $47,250/yr
• Insurance: −$1,312
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$9,379
• Net cashflow: $13,514

Break-even live

Break-even rent $27,556

Max offer price $3,150,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $15,691	-5% $14,602	+0% $13,514	+5% $12,425	+10% $11,337
Rent	-10% $9,985	-5% $11,750	+0% $13,514	+5% $15,278	+10% $17,042
Rate	-1.0pp $15,100	-0.5pp $14,315	base $13,514	+0.5pp $12,698	+1.0pp $11,867

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $787,500
• Closing costs: $94,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
175 Warfield Way Southampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1572	$22,000	$13.99	45d	1	1.04mi
813 Edge of Woods Rd Water Mill, NY	3.0	2.0	1250	$6,500	$5.20	45d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $3,150,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $3,150,000 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $3,150,000 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $3,150,000 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $3,150,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $3,150,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $3,150,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $3,395,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $3,395,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $3,395,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $3,395,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $3,395,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $3,395,000 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $3,395,000 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $3,395,000 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-04
    listed $3,495,000 Active 1141-char remark
17. 2025-10-01
    soldstatus $1,203,000 Closed 706-char remark

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    Amazing opportunity to own in the Hamptons. Nestled on a shy acre, this contemporary is more than meets the eye! What was once a rolling landscape of Botanical gardens now holds endless possibilities. The property still holds the blue prints of the gardens that once covered the landscape with existing privacy trees and flowering shrubbery, stone walls, slate patios and a pergola. Don't let the property distract you from what the home has to offer! Open floor plan, drenched with natural light, 3 large bedrooms, 2 full renovated baths, large eat in kitchen, cabinets galore and granite counter tops. Hardwood floors, recessed lighting, wood burning fireplace and so much more at this amazing low price!

18. 2025-09-22
    soldstatus $1,210,000
19. 2025-07-30
    status Pending 706-char remark

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    Amazing opportunity to own in the Hamptons. Nestled on a shy acre, this contemporary is more than meets the eye! What was once a rolling landscape of Botanical gardens now holds endless possibilities. The property still holds the blue prints of the gardens that once covered the landscape with existing privacy trees and flowering shrubbery, stone walls, slate patios and a pergola. Don't let the property distract you from what the home has to offer! Open floor plan, drenched with natural light, 3 large bedrooms, 2 full renovated baths, large eat in kitchen, cabinets galore and granite counter tops. Hardwood floors, recessed lighting, wood burning fireplace and so much more at this amazing low price!

20. 2025-06-17
    listed $1,300,000 Active 706-char remark

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    Amazing opportunity to own in the Hamptons. Nestled on a shy acre, this contemporary is more than meets the eye! What was once a rolling landscape of Botanical gardens now holds endless possibilities. The property still holds the blue prints of the gardens that once covered the landscape with existing privacy trees and flowering shrubbery, stone walls, slate patios and a pergola. Don't let the property distract you from what the home has to offer! Open floor plan, drenched with natural light, 3 large bedrooms, 2 full renovated baths, large eat in kitchen, cabinets galore and granite counter tops. Hardwood floors, recessed lighting, wood burning fireplace and so much more at this amazing low price!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $535,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$176,449
• − Property taxes: −$47,250
• − Insurance: −$15,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$42,875
• − Management: −$42,875
• − Depreciation: −$91,636
• Taxable income: $119,104
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$28,585
• After-tax cash flow: $133,580/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $85,977
• Composite: 47.9/100
• National rank: #2213
• State rank: #293 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Sea

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1063
• US rank: #21178

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Sea, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 2,952
• Household income: $180,250
• Rent vs Own: 6.8% rent · 93.2% own

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Scotch-Irish 7% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.63%
• Current HPI: 540.0967
• Rent YoY: ▲ 30.05%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+142.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $3,150,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $3,250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $3,395,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Listed $3,495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-01 Sold (MLS) $1,203,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $1,210,000 Public Records
• 2025-07-30 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-17 Listed $1,300,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $4,090 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.