43 Thompson Rd · Big Creek, MI 48647

$155,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,256 sqft · SingleFamily · 140 Days on market

5.00 ac lot $123/sqft · 27% below area Est $212k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This cozy cabin sits on 5 wooded acres near Mio and the Au Sable River. It offers 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, a steel roof, a 4-inch well, a fenced area, plus a new furnace and Generac generator. The property is occupied, so a 24-hour notice is required for showings--call to schedule an appointment. No showings before noon. All measurements should be verified by the buyer or the buyer's agent.

Key facts

• Fenced in area
• New furnace
• Generac generator

Tags

• WOODED ACRES
• STEEL ROOF
• FENCED IN AREA
• NEW FURNACE
• GENERAC GENERATOR
• CLOSE TO AU SABLE RIVER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-80 ($-964/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $141k (9.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (32.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $105k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Mio-Ausable Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #351 of 540 in MI (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 29 units permitted in Oscoda County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oscoda County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $155k implies a 182% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $105,375 (32.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.22%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $212,056
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: -26.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
699 W Cherry Creek Rd	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,260 (+0%)	9mo	$290,000	$230	77

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-30,316
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-33,320
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48647

• Home prices YoY: -14.3%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,054 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $425/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $-80

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,155

Max offer price $140,804

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 140 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 139 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 138 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 137 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 135 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $155,000 Active 134 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 131 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 130 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $155,000 Active 129 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 128 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $155,000 Active 125 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 124 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 123 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 122 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 121 DOM
16. 2026-04-16
    price $155,000 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    This cozy cabin sits on 5 wooded acres near Mio and the Au Sable River. It offers 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, a steel roof, a 4-inch well, a fenced area, plus a new furnace and Generac generator. The property is occupied, so a 24-hour notice is required for showings--call to schedule an appointment. No showings before noon. All measurements should be verified by the buyer or the buyer's agent.

17. 2026-02-23
    status Active 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    This cozy cabin sits on 5 wooded acres near Mio and the Au Sable River. It offers 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, a steel roof, a 4-inch well, a fenced area, plus a new furnace and Generac generator. The property is occupied, so a 24-hour notice is required for showings--call to schedule an appointment. No showings before noon. All measurements should be verified by the buyer or the buyer's agent.

18. 2026-02-15
    historical Active Under Contract 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    This cozy cabin sits on 5 wooded acres near Mio and the Au Sable River. It offers 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, a steel roof, a 4-inch well, a fenced area, plus a new furnace and Generac generator. The property is occupied, so a 24-hour notice is required for showings--call to schedule an appointment. No showings before noon. All measurements should be verified by the buyer or the buyer's agent.

19. 2026-01-26
    listed $165,000 Active 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    This cozy cabin sits on 5 wooded acres near Mio and the Au Sable River. It offers 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, a steel roof, a 4-inch well, a fenced area, plus a new furnace and Generac generator. The property is occupied, so a 24-hour notice is required for showings--call to schedule an appointment. No showings before noon. All measurements should be verified by the buyer or the buyer's agent.

20. 2016-04-26
    soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $425 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,406 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$981/yr (+$82/mo · 231.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,645
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$425
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,012
• − Management: −$1,012
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$3,770
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$905
• After-tax cash flow: $-60/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mio-Ausable Schools
• NCES district ID: 2624000
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $34,216
• Composite: 26.35/100
• National rank: #7236
• State rank: #351 of 540 in MI

Livability — Big Creek

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,044

Population outlook (Oscoda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,410 people
• By 2030: 6,884 · -7.1%
• By 2040: 5,853 · -21.0%
• By 2050: 5,055 · -31.8%
• By 2075: 3,832 · -48.3%
• By 2100: 2,863 · -61.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · German/W. Germanic 11% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oscoda

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.3) · D 27.2% · R 71.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.3pp toward R · 2008: -10.0pp · 2024: -44.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.3 2020: R+43.6 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+10.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.34%
• Current HPI: 176.2398
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+181.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $155,000 WWMLS
• 2026-02-23 Relisted — WWMLS
• 2026-02-15 Contingent — WWMLS
• 2026-01-26 Listed $165,000 WWMLS
• 2016-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $425 · -39.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.