16477 Little Rd · Fayetteville, AR 72703

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily · 14 Days on market

Built 1979 Poor condition 0.30 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This home needs some love! Sitting on almost a third of an acre you have plenty of room and privacy.

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• Built 1979
• Listed 14 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property sits on approximately 0.3 acres
• HOA & community: HOA dues billed monthly

Exterior

• Parking: No driveway
• Utilities: Public water available; Septic tank (septic available); Water service available
• Home design: Single-story home; Masonite exterior; Metal roof; Entry level: single level
• Construction: Built 25+ years ago; Masonite construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Cleared and wooded yard; Secluded, rural setting; Outside city limits; Highway frontage; Gravel road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms on a single level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Split bedroom layout; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-538/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (15.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.5% in Fayetteville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#3 in AR, #871 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D-.
• Fayetteville School District (urban): math 50% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #19 of 238 in AR (top 8%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 309 active listings in the ZIP; 3,494 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (1,497 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,198 (15.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.96%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-36,889
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-42,406
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72703

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 309
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,692 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,998/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $-45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,749

Max offer price $193,417

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $93	-5% $24	+0% $-45	+5% $-114	+10% $-183
Rent	-10% $-178	-5% $-112	+0% $-45	+5% $22	+10% $89
Rate	-1.0pp $56	-0.5pp $6	base $-45	+0.5pp $-97	+1.0pp $-149

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,900 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    remarks 100-char remark
12. 2026-06-05
    listed $199,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,304
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,998
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,624
• − Management: −$1,624
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$3,956
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$949
• After-tax cash flow: $412/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This home requires extensive renovations to bring it up to modern standards, significantly improving its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — severely worn and outdated
• Major bathroom fixtures — dated and worn
• Major exterior siding — weathered and damaged
• Major flooring — damaged and exposed
• Major interior walls — peeling paint and exposed subfloor
• Major roof — visible wear
• Major windows — broken glass
• Major HVAC — old water heater

Value-add opportunities

• Resale new kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen
• Resale new bathroom fixtures and tile — modernizing the bathrooms
• Resale new siding and roof — improving the exterior appearance
• Resale new flooring — modernizing the interior spaces
• Resale paint and repairs to interior walls — improving the interior appearance
• Both HVAC system — improving comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · severely worn and outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · weathered and damaged	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · damaged and exposed	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · peeling paint and exposed subfloor	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · visible wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · broken glass	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC · old water heater	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 8 items		$120,000–400,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale new kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen ↑
• Resale new bathroom fixtures and tile — modernizing the bathrooms ↑
• Resale new siding and roof — improving the exterior appearance ↑
• Resale new flooring — modernizing the interior spaces ↑
• Resale paint and repairs to interior walls — improving the interior appearance ↑
• Both HVAC system — improving comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fayetteville School District
• NCES district ID: 0506120
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,595
• Composite: 41.39/100
• National rank: #3477
• State rank: #19 of 238 in AR

Livability — Fayetteville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #871

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Washington County · 252,056 people
• City population: 118,228
• Metro: Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR
• Population (ZIP): 35,896
• Household income: $60,568
• Rent vs Own: 62.0% rent · 38.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2372.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,748 people
• By 2030: 296,414 · +9.1%
• By 2040: 346,874 · +27.6%
• By 2050: 398,552 · +46.7%
• By 2075: 523,309 · +92.6%
• By 2100: 615,280 · +126.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.7) · D 45.1% · R 51.7% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -13.1pp · 2024: -6.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.7 2020: R+3.9 2016: R+10.4 2012: R+16.3 2008: R+13.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -269.77%
• Current HPI: 317.7085
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.01%
• Metro: Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $199,900 NWARMLS