1828 John R Rd · Troy, MI 48083

$150,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,010 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 264 Days on market

Built 1936 0.37 ac lot Est $297k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor or Builder Special! The value is in the land, the home needs significant work and is being sold as-is. Located on a nicely sized, fully fenced lot with past commercial zoning, offering great potential for redevelopment. Prime location close to shopping, restaurants, and more. Don't miss this opportunity in a high-demand area!

Key facts

• Fully fenced lot
• Prime location
• 0.37 acre lot

Tags

• FULLY FENCED LOT
• PAST COMMERCIAL ZONING
• PRIME LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $591 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 3.6% in Troy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#113 in MI, #2,684 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Warren Consolidated Schools (urban): math 18% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #373 of 540 in MI (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 93 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 264 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1936 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 264 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1936 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.88%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $296,940
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2149 Isabell Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,040 (+3%)	2mo	$320,000	$308	68
2028 Isabell Drive Dr	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,060 (+5%)	7mo	$224,500	$212	68
2491 Athena Dr	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,037 (+3%)	7mo	$305,000	$294	55
2159 Garry Dr	0.53mi	3/1.0	963 (-5%)	17mo	$235,000	$244	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $7,344
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $31,761
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48083

• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,047 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,124/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $591

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,299

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $676	-5% $633	+0% $591	+5% $548	+10% $506
Rent	-10% $429	-5% $510	+0% $591	+5% $672	+10% $752
Rate	-1.0pp $666	-0.5pp $629	base $591	+0.5pp $552	+1.0pp $512

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2081 Newburgh Dr Troy, MI	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,300	$1.53	45d	1	0.16mi
Canterbury Square Troy, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	820	$1,595	$1.95	0d	12	0.65mi
2226 Orpington Dr Troy, MI	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,495	$1.76	11d	1	0.98mi
3043 Heritage Dr Troy, MI	3.0	1.0	1250	$2,100	$1.68	45d	1	1.11mi
34400 Dequindre Rd Sterling Heights, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	898	$1,540	$1.71	13d	2	1.13mi
34800 Moravian Dr Sterling Heights, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	850	$1,680	$1.98	0d	22	1.15mi
34800 Moravian Dr Sterling Heights, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$1,415	$1.75	23d	16	1.15mi
1034 Kelley St Troy, MI	2.0	1.5	1034	$1,795	$1.74	25d	1	1.15mi
2497 Avalon Dr Troy, MI	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,500	$1.79	11d	1	1.18mi
36200 Dequindre Rd Sterling Heights, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$1,860	$2.12	0d	47	1.20mi
1147 Beaver Run Troy, MI	2.0	2.0	1444	$2,100	$1.45	25d	1	1.23mi
1156 Faulkner Troy, MI	3.0	2.0	1156	$2,000	$1.73	45d	1	1.24mi
2252 Winston Dr Sterling Heights, MI	3.0	2.0	950	$2,100	$2.21	12d	1	1.39mi
2252 Winston Dr Sterling Heights, MI	3.0	1.0	950	$1,900	$2.00	23d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending 336-char remark

   Show marketing remark (336 chars)

   Investor or Builder Special! The value is in the land, the home needs significant work and is being sold as-is. Located on a nicely sized, fully fenced lot with past commercial zoning, offering great potential for redevelopment. Prime location close to shopping, restaurants, and more. Don't miss this opportunity in a high-demand area!

2. 2026-04-28
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (336 chars)

   Investor or Builder Special! The value is in the land, the home needs significant work and is being sold as-is. Located on a nicely sized, fully fenced lot with past commercial zoning, offering great potential for redevelopment. Prime location close to shopping, restaurants, and more. Don't miss this opportunity in a high-demand area!

3. 2025-08-11
   status Active 336-char remark

   Show marketing remark (336 chars)

   Investor or Builder Special! The value is in the land, the home needs significant work and is being sold as-is. Located on a nicely sized, fully fenced lot with past commercial zoning, offering great potential for redevelopment. Prime location close to shopping, restaurants, and more. Don't miss this opportunity in a high-demand area!

4. 2025-08-11
   status Active

   Show marketing remark (336 chars)

   Investor or Builder Special! The value is in the land, the home needs significant work and is being sold as-is. Located on a nicely sized, fully fenced lot with past commercial zoning, offering great potential for redevelopment. Prime location close to shopping, restaurants, and more. Don't miss this opportunity in a high-demand area!

5. 2025-08-04
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (336 chars)

   Investor or Builder Special! The value is in the land, the home needs significant work and is being sold as-is. Located on a nicely sized, fully fenced lot with past commercial zoning, offering great potential for redevelopment. Prime location close to shopping, restaurants, and more. Don't miss this opportunity in a high-demand area!

6. 2025-08-04
   status Pending 336-char remark

   Show marketing remark (336 chars)

   Investor or Builder Special! The value is in the land, the home needs significant work and is being sold as-is. Located on a nicely sized, fully fenced lot with past commercial zoning, offering great potential for redevelopment. Prime location close to shopping, restaurants, and more. Don't miss this opportunity in a high-demand area!

7. 2025-08-01
   listed $150,000 Active 336-char remark

   Show marketing remark (336 chars)

   Investor or Builder Special! The value is in the land, the home needs significant work and is being sold as-is. Located on a nicely sized, fully fenced lot with past commercial zoning, offering great potential for redevelopment. Prime location close to shopping, restaurants, and more. Don't miss this opportunity in a high-demand area!

8. 2025-08-01
   listed $150,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (336 chars)

   Investor or Builder Special! The value is in the land, the home needs significant work and is being sold as-is. Located on a nicely sized, fully fenced lot with past commercial zoning, offering great potential for redevelopment. Prime location close to shopping, restaurants, and more. Don't miss this opportunity in a high-demand area!

9. 2025-06-26
   historical
10. 2025-06-26
    historical
11. 2025-06-25
    listed $79,900 Active
12. 2025-06-25
    listed $79,900 Active
13. 2025-04-07
    historical
14. 2025-04-07
    historical
15. 2025-04-03
    listed $80,000 Active
16. 2025-04-03
    listed $80,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,124 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,217 · $185/mo
• Expected delta: +$93/yr (+$8/mo · 4.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 98% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,559
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,124
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,965
• − Management: −$1,965
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $4,990
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,198
• After-tax cash flow: $5,891/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren Consolidated Schools
• NCES district ID: 2635190
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $52,259
• Composite: 25.09/100
• National rank: #7533
• State rank: #373 of 540 in MI

Livability — Troy

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #2684

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Troy, MI
• County: Oakland County · 1,009,092 people
• City population: 87,898
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 23,771
• Household income: $90,794
• Rent vs Own: 37.8% rent · 62.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 511.0

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Asian 23% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 6% Arab 3%
• Foreign-born: 31% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Other Indo-European 10% Other Asian/Pacific 6% Arabic 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -351.17%
• Current HPI: 175.8232
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.62%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+87.5% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-28 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2025-08-11 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-08-11 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2025-08-04 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2025-08-04 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-08-01 Listed $150,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-08-01 Listed $150,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-06-26 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-06-26 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-06-25 Listed $79,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-06-25 Listed $79,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-04-07 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-04-07 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-04-03 Listed $80,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-04-03 Listed $80,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,124 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.