269 U.s. Highway 41a · Dixon, KY 42409

$140,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,445 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

0.60 ac lot $97/sqft · 15% below area Est $164k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Appreciation +9.9/10.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 Bedroom, 1 Bathroom home located in Dixon, Kentucky.

Key facts

• New fencing
• New siding
• New flooring

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW SIDING
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW FENCING
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• NEW FLOORING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Composition roof; 0.6-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Range; Electric range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-94 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $102k (27.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $102k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#324 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Webster County (rural): math 25% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #114 of 165 in KY (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Webster County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (9.7% local appreciation)).
• Webster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $101,983 (27.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.89%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,000
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -14.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
54 Bourland Ave	0.08mi	2/1.0	1,450 (+0%)	2mo	$153,000	$106	94
363 N US Hwy 41a	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,485 (+3%)	1mo	$181,000	$122	58
639 W State Route 132	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,424 (-2%)	20mo	$30,000	$21	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.71% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $67,418
• Equity at exit: $123,151

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.17×
• Total profit: $202,497
• Equity at exit: $262,480

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42409

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,020 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,290/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $-94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,139

Max offer price $123,330

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-15	-5% $-55	+0% $-94	+5% $-134	+10% $-174
Rent	-10% $-175	-5% $-135	+0% $-94	+5% $-54	+10% $-14
Rate	-1.0pp $-24	-0.5pp $-59	base $-94	+0.5pp $-131	+1.0pp $-168

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $140,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $140,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $140,000 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $140,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $140,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 31 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 30 DOM
18. 2026-05-14
    price $140,000 648-char remark
19. 2026-04-30
    listed $145,000 Active 648-char remark
20. 2025-06-20
    price $135,000
21. 2025-06-14
    listed $140,000 Active
22. 2023-07-19
    soldstatus $115,000
23. 2023-07-18
    listed $114,900

    Show marketing remark (54 chars)

    2 Bedroom, 1 Bathroom home located in Dixon, Kentucky.

24. 2023-07-14
    soldstatus $115,000

    Show marketing remark (54 chars)

    2 Bedroom, 1 Bathroom home located in Dixon, Kentucky.

25. 2023-07-14
    soldstatus $115,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (54 chars)

    2 Bedroom, 1 Bathroom home located in Dixon, Kentucky.

26. 2023-06-02
    status Pending
27. 2023-05-10
    price $114,900
28. 2023-05-03
    status Active
29. 2023-04-24
    status Pending
30. 2023-04-20
    listed $125,000 Active
31. 1977-09-01
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,290 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,290 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,238
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$1,290
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$979
• − Management: −$979
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$3,625
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$870
• After-tax cash flow: $-262/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Webster County
• NCES district ID: 2105820
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $39,542
• Composite: 24.76/100
• National rank: #7600
• State rank: #114 of 165 in KY

Livability — Dixon

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #324
• US rank: #15561

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dixon, KY
• Population (ZIP): 2,319

Population outlook (Webster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,548 people
• By 2030: 12,119 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 11,345 · -9.6%
• By 2050: 10,761 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 10,166 · -19.0%
• By 2100: 10,546 · -16.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 12% Serbian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Webster

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.4) · D 20.8% · R 78.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.7pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -57.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.4 2020: R+51.6 2016: R+54.4 2012: R+33.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.71%
• Current HPI: 244.2889
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+833.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $140,000 MHCBOR
• 2026-04-30 Listed $145,000 MHCBOR
• 2025-06-20 Price Changed $135,000 MHCBOR
• 2025-06-14 Listed $140,000 MHCBOR
• 2023-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2023-07-18 Listed $114,900 GORAMLS
• 2023-07-14 Sold (MLS) $115,000 HABOR
• 2023-07-14 Sold (MLS) $115,000 GORAMLS
• 2023-06-02 Pending — HABOR
• 2023-05-10 Price Changed $114,900 HABOR
• 2023-05-03 Relisted — HABOR
• 2023-04-24 Pending — HABOR
• 2023-04-20 Listed $125,000 HABOR
• 1977-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,290 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.