6516 Jade Ave · Lake Shastina, CA 96064

$169,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,696 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1981 2.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,696 sq ft of living space and is ready for your vision and personal touch. Situated on 2.50 acres, the property features a detached shop area--perfect for storage, hobbies, or workspace. Enjoy stunning views of Mt. Shasta right from your property, adding to the peaceful, rural charm.

Key facts

• 2.50 acres
• Detached shop area
• 2.5 acre lot

Tags

• DETACHED SHOP AREA
• STUNNING VIEWS OF MT SHASTA
• 2.50 ACRES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; RV access/parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Cable not available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Built on a 2.5-acre lot
• Exterior features: Level lot; Dirt road access; Property has a view; Suitable for horses

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Refrigerator included; No fireplace
• Laundry & utility: 220-volt outlet in laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $21 ($251/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (15.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.5% in Lake Shastina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Yreka Union High (town): math 25% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #630 of 1,400 in CA (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 50 units permitted in Siskiyou County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Siskiyou County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $130k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,793 (15.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.53%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-26,213
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-21,168
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96064

• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,438 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,839/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,411

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $169,900 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,900 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $169,900 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,900 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $169,900 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,900 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 49 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 48 DOM
17. 2026-04-13
    listed $189,900 Active
18. 2003-10-15
    soldstatus $130,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,839 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,839 · $153/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,255
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$1,839
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,380
• − Management: −$1,380
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$2,654
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$637
• After-tax cash flow: $888/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Yreka Union High
• NCES district ID: 0643410
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $34,206
• Composite: 39.28/100
• National rank: #8184
• State rank: #630 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lake Shastina

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,696

Population outlook (Siskiyou County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,337 people
• By 2030: 36,930 · -6.1%
• By 2040: 32,367 · -17.7%
• By 2050: 29,030 · -26.2%
• By 2075: 23,534 · -40.2%
• By 2100: 19,312 · -50.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Native American 4% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Russian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Siskiyou

• 2024 margin: R (+19.2) · D 38.8% · R 58.0% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -19.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.2 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+20.7 2012: R+15.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.26%
• Current HPI: 140.7129
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+45.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $189,900 SAOR
• 2003-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $130,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,839 · -3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.