139 Segovia Ct · Vacaville, CA 95687

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured · 29 Days on market

Built 1974 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offers great space and potential in a highly desirable family community. Built in 1974 and in original condition, this home is perfect for buyers looking to customize and add their personal touch. Features include a spacious and open living room with fireplace, abundant natural light, and built-in shelving for added character. The kitchen and living areas feel open and airy, ideal for everyday living. The home offers generously sized bedrooms, including a large primary suite with double sinks and ample closet space. Additional highlights include a spacious laundry room with sink and plenty of storage, central AC, ceiling fans, and a low-maintenance yard with

Key facts

• Low maintenance yard
• Built in shelving
• Orange tree

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• BUILT IN SHELVING
• SPACIOUS LAUNDRY ROOM
• LOW MAINTENANCE YARD
• ORANGE TREE
• SIDE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $186k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 3.0% in Vacaville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#88 in CA, #3,156 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living F.
• Travis Unified (urban): math 42% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #375 of 1,400 in CA (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 263 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,472 units permitted in Solano County in 2024 (131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($110k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Solano County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,165 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.24%
• DSCR: 2.30
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $41,935
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $105,273
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95687

• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 263
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,286 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$236 /mo · $2,835/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$690
• Net cashflow: $1,290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,653

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
660 Broadfork Cir Vacaville, CA	4.0	2.0	1800	$3,700	$2.06	13d	1	0.89mi
273 Cask Dr Vacaville, CA	3.0	2.5	2209	$3,495	$1.58	43d	1	0.92mi
432 Zachary Dr Vacaville, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,850	$2.59	43d	1	1.15mi
809 Cosmos Dr Vacaville, CA	3.0	2.5	2154	$3,700	$1.72	13d	1	1.24mi
398 Aaron Cir Vacaville, CA	3.0	3.0	1700	$3,295	$1.94	23d	1	1.34mi
208 Richard Pl Vacaville, CA	3.0	2.0	1512	$3,250	$2.15	43d	1	1.46mi
245 Christine Dr Vacaville, CA	3.0	2.0	1533	$3,400	$2.22	43d	1	1.47mi
642 Silvertop Way Vacaville, CA	3.0	2.0	1692	$2,995	$1.77	23d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-24
   listed $189,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 23 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,430
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,835
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,154
• − Management: −$3,154
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $13,256
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,182
• After-tax cash flow: $12,295/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 1974 manufactured home is in fair condition with cosmetic updates needed. Fresh paint and landscaping would significantly boost its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Landscaping — Some bushes appear dry
• Minor Paint — Light yellow siding shows some discoloration

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior — Fresh paint would improve curb appeal and home value
• Both Landscaping — A well-maintained garden would enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Landscaping · Some bushes appear dry	Minor	$500–3,000
Paint · Light yellow siding shows some discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior — Fresh paint would improve curb appeal and home value ↑
• Both Landscaping — A well-maintained garden would enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Travis Unified
• NCES district ID: 0639630
• Math proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,341
• Composite: 47.55/100
• National rank: #4961
• State rank: #375 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Vacaville

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #88
• US rank: #3156

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute B- Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vacaville, CA
• County: Solano County · 433,239 people
• City population: 109,591
• Metro: Vallejo, CA
• Population (ZIP): 69,390
• Household income: $109,566
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1761.0

Population outlook (Solano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 478,685 people
• By 2030: 497,974 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 528,515 · +10.4%
• By 2050: 549,115 · +14.7%
• By 2075: 587,229 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 571,378 · +19.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 13% Black 10% Asian 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 13% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Solano

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.0) · D 60.0% · R 37.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 23.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.0 2020: D+30.3 2016: D+30.5 2012: D+28.1 2008: D+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -299.59%
• Current HPI: 268.0777
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.55%
• Metro: Vallejo, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — BAREIS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $189,000 BAREIS