8425 Pamunkey Rd · Lake Wilderness, VA 22551

$295,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1975 0.75 ac lot Est $316k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully Remodeled 3BR 1 BA Rambler on a great lot! This one has been upgraded inside and out. .. Kitchen has brand new Granite Countertops, Cabinets and Stainless Steel Appliances! Bathroom has new vanity and fixtures. .New flooring and paint throughout the home gives it that brand new feel!! The updates do not stop with the inside, this one also has a new HVAC system and Roof! Schedule your showing soon, this one will not last long!

Key facts

• 0.75 acre lot
• Built 1975
• Listed 16 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electric hot water; Well water; On-site septic
• Home design: Detached property; Effective year of major remodel: 2022; Ownership: Fee simple
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Crawl space foundation; Above- and below-grade structures noted
• Exterior features: Detached shed; No tidal water

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Icemaker; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Stove
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating and cooling (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Carpet; Traditional floor plan; Upgraded countertops; Drywall walls and ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($997/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 1.9% in Lake Wilderness — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#321 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Spotsylvania County Public School District (rural): math 54% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #38 of 131 in VA (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Livingston Elementary (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #536 of 1,108 statewide, top 51%, 435 students, 64% FRL); Post Oak Middle (math 48% / reading 63%, grade B-, #186 of 342 statewide, top 55%, 665 students, 64% FRL); Spotsylvania High (math 41% / reading 81%, grade C+, #242 of 319 statewide, top 76%, 1,388 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 30% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 199 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 707 units permitted in Spotsylvania County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Spotsylvania County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask is 7% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,901 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.21%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $315,504
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8421 Pamunkey Rd	0.05mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+7%)	1mo	$325,000	$301	85
8437 Pamunkey Rd	0.12mi	3/1.0	960 (-5%)	3mo	$320,000	$333	84
8441 Pamunkey Rd	0.16mi	3/1.0	960 (-5%)	2mo	$300,000	$313	83
8513 Pamunkey Rd	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,104 (+10%)	2mo	$325,000	$294	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-42,659
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-30,934
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22551

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,309 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $853/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,204

Max offer price $295,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $250	-5% $167	+0% $83	+5% $0	+10% $-84
Rent	-10% $-99	-5% $-8	+0% $83	+5% $174	+10% $265
Rate	-1.0pp $232	-0.5pp $158	base $83	+0.5pp $7	+1.0pp $-71

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8326 Quicks Way Spotsylvania, VA	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,300	$1.77	0d	1	0.11mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $295,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $295,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $295,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $295,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $295,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $295,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $295,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $295,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $295,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $295,000 Coming Soon 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $295,000 Coming Soon 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $295,000 Coming Soon 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $295,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $295,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $853 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,419 · $202/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,566/yr (+$130/mo · 183.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,708
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$853
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,217
• − Management: −$2,217
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$4,160
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$998
• After-tax cash flow: $1,995/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spotsylvania County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103640
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $78,321
• Composite: 55.79/100
• National rank: #1213
• State rank: #38 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lake Wilderness

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #321
• US rank: #11702

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Spotsylvania County · 138,364 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 24,146
• Household income: $110,370
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 176.0

Population outlook (Spotsylvania County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,292 people
• By 2030: 153,092 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 164,270 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 171,000 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 183,080 · +25.1%
• By 2100: 180,412 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Romanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Spotsylvania

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.6) · D 45.1% · R 53.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -6.9pp · 2024: -8.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.6 2020: R+6.8 2016: R+16.8 2012: R+11.5 2008: R+6.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.42%
• Current HPI: 284.319
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+78.8% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Coming Soon $295,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-02-15 Sold (Public Records) $272,000 Public Records
• 2023-02-15 Sold (MLS) $272,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-01-14 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-01-13 Price Changed $272,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-12-29 Price Changed $274,300 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-12-23 Listed $275,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-10-19 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-10-12 Listed $190,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-09-09 Sold (MLS) $79,000 MRIS
• 2010-09-09 Sold (MLS) $79,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-07-22 Pending — MRIS
• 2010-07-21 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-07-10 Listed $79,000 MRIS
• 2010-07-10 Listed $79,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-05-18 Delisted — MRIS
• 2010-05-18 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-04-28 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2010-04-05 Relisted — MRIS
• 2010-03-12 Pending — MRIS
• 2010-03-02 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2010-02-02 Relisted — MRIS
• 2010-02-02 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2009-11-13 Pending — MRIS
• 2009-10-10 Listed — MRIS
• 2009-10-09 Listed $90,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-09-28 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $853 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.