16091 Cedar Bay Dr · Emerald Bay, TX 75757

$138,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1990 0.88 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well-kept, clean and spacious 3-bedroom mobile home in Cedar Bay on two lots. Home sits on . 88 of an acre and has a nice front yard and sizable back yard. 2-car carport in the driveway and another covered parking area in the back yard along with a outbuilding-shop. No HOA in Cedar Bay and short-term rentals are allowed. Bullard school district. Close to the Lake Palestine Marina for access to Lake Palestine.

Key facts

• Two lots
• Sizable back yard
• Carport

Tags

• TWO LOTS
• FRONT YARD
• SIZABLE BACK YARD
• CARPORT
• COVERED PARKING AREA
• OUTBUILDING SHOP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.88 acre

Exterior

• Home design: Single-story; Manufactured (mobile) home; Residential property; Located in the Cedar Bay subdivision
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Chain link fencing; Storage structure; Workshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Central air

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $167 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (7.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (7.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 2.9% in Emerald Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#293 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Bullard ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #48 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bullard El (math 61% / reading 61%, grade B, #368 of 4,322 statewide, top 9%, 434 students, 36% FRL); Bullard Int (math 66% / reading 50%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 435 students, 26% FRL); Bullard H S (math 57% / reading 68%, grade B-, #234 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 848 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 581 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $954 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,307 (7.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
3. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
4. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.18%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-11,792
• Equity at exit: $20,576

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $3,200
• Equity at exit: $11,932

Cash invested: $38,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75757

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 581
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,273 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$724
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $693/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,062

Max offer price $138,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,500
• Closing costs: $4,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22712 Creekwood Dr Flint, TX	2.0	1.0	992	$1,500	$1.51	13d	1	1.15mi
16584 Lakeway Cir Flint, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,050	$0.70	13d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on marketlisting id $138,000 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $138,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $138,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $138,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $138,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $138,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $138,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   remarks 412-char remark
9. 2026-06-10
   listed $138,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $693 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,525 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,832/yr (+$153/mo · 264.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,277
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,730
• − Property taxes: −$693
• − Insurance: −$690
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,222
• − Management: −$1,222
• − Depreciation: −$4,015
• Taxable loss: −$295
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$71
• After-tax cash flow: $2,072/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bullard ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812060
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,026
• Composite: 53.66/100
• National rank: #1433
• State rank: #48 of 826 in TX

Livability — Emerald Bay

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #293
• US rank: #6721

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,977

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.57%
• Current HPI: 189.5215
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $138,000 GTAR
• 2022-11-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-02-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $693 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.