11758 Luckey · San Antonio, TX 78252

$239,999

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,581 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 2011 7,013 sqft lot $93/sqft · 17% below area Est $291k · 17% under $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICED TO SELL! Spacious 5-bedroom, 3.5-bath home offering plenty of room for a growing family. This well-maintained property features a large backyard and a functional layout ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The home does require minor foundation work, and pricing reflects this. Seller is willing to complete repairs prior to closing, making this a great opportunity for both retail buyers and investors. Don't miss your chance schedule your showing and bring your offer!

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Functional layout
• 7,013 sq ft lot

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• MINOR FOUNDATION WORK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-417/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (18.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 537 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-4 appreciation (-0.0% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,823 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.62%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $290,817
• List price: $239,999
• Delta: -17.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11811 Luckey Fls	0.35mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,245 (-13%)	18mo	$289,000	$129	42
11855 Davalos	0.43mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,202 (-15%)	11mo	$284,900	$129	41
11925 Luckey Riv	0.37mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,239 (-13%)	18mo	$254,900	$114	40
11926 Luckey Riv	0.40mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,239 (-13%)	18mo	$244,900	$109	39
11765 Alcoser Ct	0.50mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,202 (-15%)	19mo	$280,000	$127	31
7257 Jebson Pass	0.73mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,202 (-15%)	16mo	$229,900	$104	23
7010 Turnbow	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,199 (-15%)	24mo	$275,000	$125	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-15,037
• Equity at exit: $69,667

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-6,828
• Equity at exit: $83,725

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78252

• Home prices YoY: -0.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 537
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,968 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$211 /mo · $2,533/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,012

Max offer price $233,853

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11803 Luckey Vis San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1778	$1,826	$1.03	4d	1	0.06mi
11811 Wolf Cyn San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1893	$1,725	$0.91	43d	1	0.17mi
10843 Emerick St San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2400	$2,300	$0.96	4d	1	0.25mi
10858 Quinn Ct San Antonio, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1733	$2,067	$1.19	1d	1	0.27mi
11543 Luckey Ledge San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1793	$1,615	$0.90	43d	1	0.34mi
11824 Luckey Fls San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2239	$1,796	$0.80	12d	1	0.35mi
6528 Dodger Vly San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1822	$1,800	$0.99	43d	1	0.42mi
11753 Alcoser Ct San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1792	$1,589	$0.89	21d	1	0.51mi
7204 Jebson Pass San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	2202	$1,900	$0.86	14d	1	0.65mi
7216 Jebson Pass San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.5	2205	$5,200	$2.36	1d	1	0.66mi
12241 Cashton San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1895	$1,975	$1.04	43d	1	0.73mi
12227 Stratsburg San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1895	$1,759	$0.93	23d	1	0.80mi
11655 Bakersfield Pass San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2268	$2,185	$0.96	2d	1	0.87mi
12251 Siragusa San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1822	$2,050	$1.13	2d	1	0.88mi
11643 Troubadour Trl San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.5	2412	$2,147	$0.89	23d	1	0.93mi
11627 Troubadour Trl San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.0	2497	$2,350	$0.94	23d	1	0.95mi
11620 Midnight Rain San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1780	$1,850	$1.04	43d	1	1.00mi
11620 Midnight Rain San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1780	$1,795	$1.01	21d	1	1.00mi
11732 Red Pheasant San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1780	$1,795	$1.01	23d	1	1.01mi
11806 Black Rose San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2100	$2,150	$1.02	43d	1	1.04mi
12507 Antilia San Antonio, TX	3.0	3.0	2060	$2,200	$1.07	43d	1	1.16mi
12603 Antilia San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	2058	$1,795	$0.87	4d	1	1.17mi
11502 Hocus Pocus San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	2254	$2,325	$1.03	23d	1	1.19mi
11556 Mustang Grv San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1929	$2,150	$1.11	20d	1	1.19mi
4931 Jovian San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	2058	$1,795	$0.87	23d	1	1.20mi
12528 Corona Borealis San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	2058	$1,795	$0.87	23d	1	1.25mi
11230 Begonia Rock San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	2090	$1,925	$0.92	43d	1	1.25mi
4715 Corona Australis San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	2081	$1,950	$0.94	43d	1	1.38mi
13078 Cygnus San Antonio, TX	4.0	1.0–3.0	1656	$1,911	$1.15	1d	8	1.43mi
6441 Staccato Staff San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1906	$1,950	$1.02	4d	1	1.45mi
10903 Honey Crisp San Antonio, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1719	$1,699	$0.99	1d	47	1.46mi
12879 Cygnus San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2121	$2,150	$1.01	21d	1	1.46mi
12879 Cygnus San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2120	$2,150	$1.01	43d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $239,999 Pending 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,999 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,999 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,999 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,999 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,999 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $239,999 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $239,999 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $239,999 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,999 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,999 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-05-13
    price $239,999 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    PRICED TO SELL! Spacious 5-bedroom, 3.5-bath home offering plenty of room for a growing family. This well-maintained property features a large backyard and a functional layout ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The home does require minor foundation work, and pricing reflects this. Seller is willing to complete repairs prior to closing, making this a great opportunity for both retail buyers and investors. Don't miss your chance schedule your showing and bring your offer!

13. 2026-04-20
    price $244,900 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    PRICED TO SELL! Spacious 5-bedroom, 3.5-bath home offering plenty of room for a growing family. This well-maintained property features a large backyard and a functional layout ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The home does require minor foundation work, and pricing reflects this. Seller is willing to complete repairs prior to closing, making this a great opportunity for both retail buyers and investors. Don't miss your chance schedule your showing and bring your offer!

14. 2026-04-05
    listed $249,999 New 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    PRICED TO SELL! Spacious 5-bedroom, 3.5-bath home offering plenty of room for a growing family. This well-maintained property features a large backyard and a functional layout ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The home does require minor foundation work, and pricing reflects this. Seller is willing to complete repairs prior to closing, making this a great opportunity for both retail buyers and investors. Don't miss your chance schedule your showing and bring your offer!

15. 2012-07-13
    historical
16. 2011-11-15
    listed $178,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,533 · $211/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,392 · $366/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,859/yr (+$155/mo · 73.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,619
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$2,533
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,890
• − Management: −$1,890
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$4,559
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,094
• After-tax cash flow: $677/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,790
• Household income: $85,518
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 152.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 68% Two or more races 29% White 17% Black 8% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 61% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1% German 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 38% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▬ -0.00%
• Current HPI: 183.6413
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+34.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $239,999 LERA
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $244,900 LERA
• 2026-04-05 Listed $249,999 LERA
• 2012-07-13 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2011-11-15 Listed $178,900 LERA

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,533 · -57.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.