281 Louise Ln · Elliston, VA 24087

$285,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,568 sqft · Townhouse public records · 22 Days on market

Built 2021 2,178 sqft lot $182/sqft · 13% above area Est $255k · 12% over $93/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.2/15.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Midway Estate located between Elliston and Salem. New Townhomes currently under construction. 3 bedroom 2.5 baths. LVP on main level, carpet on steps and bedrooms on upper level. Laundry on upper level. Roll vinyl in laundry and bathrooms. Espresso cabinets and Granite counter tops in kitchen and baths. Single attached garage. See Utility Provider list under documents.

Key facts

• $93 HOA
• Garage
• Built 2021

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property located in the Midway Estates subdivision
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $1,116 (about $93/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached concrete garage with 1 parking space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Underground utilities
• Home design: Residential townhouse; 1,580 above-grade finished area
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Electric range
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Forced air heating; Natural gas heating; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-283 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (17.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (30.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#342 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Montgomery County Public School District (urban): math 57% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #47 of 131 in VA (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Eastern Montgomery Elementary (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #966 of 1,108 statewide, top 89%, 385 students, 76% FRL); Eastern Montgomery High (math 72% / reading 77%, grade B+, #107 of 319 statewide, top 37%, 282 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 32% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 323 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $199,500 (30.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.26%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $255,203
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: 11.68%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
235 Louise Ln	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,580 (+1%)	10mo	$265,000	$168	87
229 Louise Ln	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,495 (-5%)	7mo	$282,500	$189	83
211 Louise Ln	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,508 (-4%)	17mo	$255,000	$169	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $137,150
• Equity at exit: $256,751

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.24×
• Total profit: $417,989
• Equity at exit: $553,692

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24087

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,995 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,834/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$93
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $-283

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,353

Max offer price $234,990

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
239 Louise Ln Elliston, VA	3.0	2.5	1568	$1,995	$1.27	21d	1	0.10mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $93 · $1,116/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $285,000 Pending 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $285,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $285,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $285,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $285,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   status $285,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-05-08
    listed $285,000 Active 980-char remark
11. 2022-07-18
    soldstatus $251,750 Closed 371-char remark

    Show marketing remark (370 chars)

    Midway Estate located between Elliston and Salem. New Townhomes currently under construction. 3 bedroom 2.5 baths. LVP on main level, carpet on steps and bedrooms on upper level. Laundry on upper level. Roll vinyl in laundry and bathrooms. Espresso cabinets and Granite counter tops in kitchen and baths. Single attached garage. See Utility Provider List under documents

12. 2022-07-18
    soldstatus $251,750 Closed

    Show marketing remark (370 chars)

    Midway Estate located between Elliston and Salem. New Townhomes currently under construction. 3 bedroom 2.5 baths. LVP on main level, carpet on steps and bedrooms on upper level. Laundry on upper level. Roll vinyl in laundry and bathrooms. Espresso cabinets and Granite counter tops in kitchen and baths. Single attached garage. See Utility Provider List under documents

13. 2022-06-05
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (371 chars)

    Midway Estate located between Elliston and Salem. New Townhomes currently under construction. 3 bedroom 2.5 baths. LVP on main level, carpet on steps and bedrooms on upper level. Laundry on upper level. Roll vinyl in laundry and bathrooms. Espresso cabinets and Granite counter tops in kitchen and baths. Single attached garage. See Utility Provider list under documents.

14. 2022-06-05
    status Pending 371-char remark

    Show marketing remark (371 chars)

    Midway Estate located between Elliston and Salem. New Townhomes currently under construction. 3 bedroom 2.5 baths. LVP on main level, carpet on steps and bedrooms on upper level. Laundry on upper level. Roll vinyl in laundry and bathrooms. Espresso cabinets and Granite counter tops in kitchen and baths. Single attached garage. See Utility Provider list under documents.

15. 2021-11-23
    listed $251,750 Active 371-char remark

    Show marketing remark (370 chars)

    Midway Estate located between Elliston and Salem. New Townhomes currently under construction. 3 bedroom 2.5 baths. LVP on main level, carpet on steps and bedrooms on upper level. Laundry on upper level. Roll vinyl in laundry and bathrooms. Espresso cabinets and Granite counter tops in kitchen and baths. Single attached garage. See Utility Provider List under documents

16. 2021-11-23
    listed $251,750 Active

    Show marketing remark (370 chars)

    Midway Estate located between Elliston and Salem. New Townhomes currently under construction. 3 bedroom 2.5 baths. LVP on main level, carpet on steps and bedrooms on upper level. Laundry on upper level. Roll vinyl in laundry and bathrooms. Espresso cabinets and Granite counter tops in kitchen and baths. Single attached garage. See Utility Provider List under documents

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,834 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,337 · $195/mo
• Expected delta: +$503/yr (+$42/mo · 27.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥93°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$1,834
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,915
• − Management: −$1,915
• − HOA: −$1,116
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$8,521
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,045
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,352/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102520
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $46,618
• Composite: 53.6/100
• National rank: #1440
• State rank: #47 of 131 in VA

Livability — Elliston

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #342
• US rank: #13622

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elliston, VA
• Population (ZIP): 3,948

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,748 people
• By 2030: 110,301 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 115,652 · +9.4%
• By 2050: 119,651 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 126,005 · +19.2%
• By 2100: 129,771 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 47.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 4.9pp · 2024: 3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.5 2020: D+5.8 2016: D+1.3 2012: R+0.2 2008: D+4.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.65%
• Current HPI: 258.6535
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+13.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Pending — NRVMLS
• 2026-06-04 Relisted — NRVMLS
• 2026-05-19 Pending — NRVMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $285,000 NRVMLS
• 2022-07-18 Sold (MLS) $251,750 NRVMLS
• 2022-07-18 Sold (MLS) $251,750 MLSRV
• 2022-06-05 Pending — NRVMLS
• 2022-06-05 Pending — MLSRV
• 2021-11-23 Listed $251,750 MLSRV
• 2021-11-23 Listed $251,750 NRVMLS

Property tax history

+68.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,834 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.