67811 Candle Ct · Nikolaevsk, AK 99556

$108,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 593 sqft · Other · 25 Days on market

Built 2010 3.62 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Escape the noise and embrace a more self-sufficient way of life with this rustic Alaskan log cabin tucked away off the beaten path on 3.62 private acres. Surrounded by wild berries, abundant wildlife, and peekaboo mountain views, this property is ideal for the buyer seeking privacy, independence, and a true off-grid lifestyle. Designed with sustainability and simplicity in mind, the cabin with loft features a cozy kitchenette complete with a farmhouse sink, butcher block countertops, propane cookstove, and touches of oak flooring. A root cellar built directly into the cabin floor provides practical food storage, while the Jutol woodstove offers dependable heat through cool summers and long

Key facts

• Oak flooring
• 3.62 private acres
• Farmhouse sink

Tags

• 3.62 PRIVATE ACRES
• COZY KITCHENETTE
• FARMHOUSE SINK
• BUTCHER BLOCK COUNTERTOPS
• PROPANE COOKSTOVE
• OAK FLOORING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No carport
• Utilities: No sewer service
• Home design: Residential property; Detached; Log and wood frame construction; Built in 2010
• Construction: Log and wood frame construction; Metal roof; Built in 2010
• Exterior features: Private yard; Fire pit; Outhouse; Storage; Trailside setting; Scenic views; Metal roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Interior features: BR/BA on main level; Vaulted ceilings; Wood stove

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $109k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $61 ($733/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (5.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $103k (5.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#164 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Kenai Peninsula Borough School District (rural): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #8 of 21 in AK (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chapman School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #70 of 156 statewide, top 46%, 160 students, 48% FRL); Homer Flex School (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #10 of 61 statewide, top 15%, 36 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 31% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; 152 units permitted in Kenai Peninsula Borough in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($753 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Kenai Peninsula County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $102,993 (5.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.40%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.47% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $13,983
• Equity at exit: $45,732

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $48,230
• Equity at exit: $68,059

Cash invested: $30,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99556

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,030 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$571
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$136 /mo · $1,634/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $61

Break-even live

Break-even rent $953

Max offer price $108,900

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,225
• Closing costs: $3,267
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $108,900 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $108,900 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $108,900 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $108,900 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $108,900 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $108,900 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $108,900 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $108,900 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $108,900 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $108,900 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $108,900 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $108,900 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $108,900 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $108,900 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $108,900 Active 6 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $108,900 Active 5 DOM
17. 2026-05-24
    listed $108,900 Active
18. 2021-08-26
    status Pending
19. 2021-08-17
    price $79,999
20. 2021-07-13
    price $94,999
21. 2021-06-17
    status Active
22. 2021-06-15
    listed $99,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,359
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,100
• − Property taxes: −$1,634
• − Insurance: −$544
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$989
• − Management: −$989
• − Depreciation: −$3,168
• Taxable loss: −$1,064
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$255
• After-tax cash flow: $988/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenai Peninsula Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,704
• Composite: 36.71/100
• National rank: #4594
• State rank: #8 of 21 in AK

Livability — Nikolaevsk

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #164
• US rank: #24043

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nikolaevsk, AK
• City population: 2,858
• Population (ZIP): 2,858

Population outlook (Kenai Peninsula County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,736 people
• By 2030: 66,260 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 70,449 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 74,414 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 87,508 · +37.3%
• By 2100: 95,360 · +49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Native American 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenai Peninsula

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.47%
• Current HPI: 169.1953
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+10.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Listed $108,900 AKMLS
• 2021-08-26 Pending — AKMLS
• 2021-08-17 Price Changed $79,999 AKMLS
• 2021-07-13 Price Changed $94,999 AKMLS
• 2021-06-17 Relisted — AKMLS
• 2021-06-15 Listed $99,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2023): $216 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.