1543 John Pl · Yuba City, CA 95993

$369,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,410 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1974 10,019 sqft lot $262/sqft · 15% below area Est $432k · 15% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 1543 John Place in Yuba City! Tucked away in a quiet cul-de-sac, this beautifully updated 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offers approximately 1,410 sq. ft. of comfortable living space on an almost quarter-acre lot. Inside, you'll find an updated kitchen, remodeled bathrooms, upgraded exterior windows, brand-new carpet, and a beautiful brick fireplace that gives the home a warm and inviting feel. The home also comes with a refrigerator, making it even more move-in ready for the next owner. The spacious lot provides plenty of room for entertaining, gardening, RV parking potential, or simply enjoying the privacy of the backyard. There is also a small concrete slab in the backyard that w

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1974

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $369k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-40 ($-474/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $362k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $279k (24.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $279k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.6% in Yuba City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#111 in CA, #3,863 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, cost of living F.
• Yuba City Unified (urban): math 20% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #263 of 517 in CA (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 176 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 73 units permitted in Sutter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sutter County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $94k; list at $369k implies a 295% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $279,408 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.46%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $432,067
• List price: $369,000
• Delta: -14.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1543 John Pl	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,410 (0%)	0mo	$376,000	$267	95
2793 Coy Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (-4%)	2mo	$439,999	$325	75
2810 Kennedy Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,526 (+8%)	4mo	$460,000	$301	74
2588 Sombra Ct	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,327 (-6%)	2mo	$420,000	$317	66
2768 Butte House Rd	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (+6%)	4mo	$438,000	$292	65
2903 Kennedy Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,588 (+13%)	10mo	$425,000	$268	65
1636 Piner Way	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,501 (+6%)	0mo	$457,000	$304	52
1616 Piner Way	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,501 (+6%)	2mo	$453,000	$302	50
2195 Roesler Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,501 (+6%)	6mo	$450,000	$300	47
2204 Roesler Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,501 (+6%)	8mo	$460,000	$306	45
2214 Roesler Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,611 (+14%)	9mo	$460,990	$286	32
2187 Orlin Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,611 (+14%)	11mo	$469,000	$291	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-62,455
• Equity at exit: $55,019

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-58,212
• Equity at exit: $31,904

Cash invested: $103,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95993

• Active inventory: 176
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,794 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,935
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,896/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$587
• Net cashflow: $-40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,844

Max offer price $362,019

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,250
• Closing costs: $11,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1694 Shay Way Yuba City, CA	4.0	2.5	1744	$2,400	$1.38	13d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 1995-03-30
   soldstatus $93,500
2. 1995-03-30
   soldstatus $93,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,896 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,804 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: +$908/yr (+$76/mo · 47.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,529
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,670
• − Property taxes: −$1,896
• − Insurance: −$1,845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,682
• − Management: −$2,682
• − Depreciation: −$10,735
• Taxable loss: −$6,981
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,675
• After-tax cash flow: $1,201/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Yuba City Unified
• NCES district ID: 0643470
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $50,923
• Composite: 31.55/100
• National rank: #5956
• State rank: #263 of 517 in CA

Livability — Yuba City

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3863

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Yuba City, CA
• County: Sutter County · 81,625 people
• City population: 81,625
• Metro: Yuba City, CA
• Population (ZIP): 39,046
• Household income: $93,763
• Rent vs Own: 31.1% rent · 68.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 738.0

Population outlook (Sutter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,244 people
• By 2030: 97,170 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 96,137 · -1.1%
• By 2050: 93,604 · -3.7%
• By 2075: 85,008 · -12.6%
• By 2100: 71,584 · -26.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Asian 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 12% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Other Indo-European 20% Spanish 12% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sutter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.1% · R 64.5% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.7pp toward R · 2008: -16.7pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+16.3 2012: R+21.8 2008: R+16.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -280.05%
• Current HPI: 210.9131
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Yuba City, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 1995-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $93,500 Public Records
• 1995-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $93,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,896 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.