1553 Seminole Dr · Forney, TX 75126

$309,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 2018 6,011 sqft lot $161/sqft · 17% below area Est $372k · 17% under $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seller willing to pay towards concessions! Beautifully maintained 3 bedroom 2 bath home with outstanding curb appeal and open layout. Interior features include luxury vinyl plank flooring and a neutral color palette,. The kitchen serves as the heart of the home, showcasing granite countertops, ample counterspace, and cabinetry with modern hardware. Designed with both style and functionality in mind, kitchen overlooks the living and dining area, creating an inviting, open concept layout that’s perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The versatile floor plan offers a spacious flex room ideal for a home office, media room, or additional living area. The private primary suite includes a garden tub, dual sinks, and a large walk-in closet. Split secondary bedrooms provide privacy and share a full bath. Enjoy outdoor living year round with a covered back porch, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The spacious backyard offers plenty of room for gatherings and play. Gateway Parks amenities include two pools, a splash pad, workout facility, ample amount of green spaces, walking trails, and BBQ and picnic area. No PID or MUD

Key facts

• Modern hardware
• Ample counterspace
• Flex room

Tags

• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• AMPLE COUNTERSPACE
• MODERN HARDWARE
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• FLEX ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-456 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (26.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2179 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,318 (26.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.31%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $371,614
• List price: $309,900
• Delta: -16.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1560 Seminole Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	2,020 (+5%)	1mo	$330,000	$163	88
1262 Herring Dr	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,900 (-1%)	3mo	$303,990	$160	84
1202 Lambert	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,827 (-5%)	1mo	$329,990	$181	78
1278 Herring	0.14mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,912 (-0%)	8mo	$349,490	$183	77
1213 Herring Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,827 (-5%)	1mo	$312,000	$171	77
1557 Wyler Dr	0.07mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,064 (+8%)	2mo	$325,000	$157	74
1604 Cedar Crest Dr	0.25mi	3/2.5	2,060 (+7%)	6mo	$355,000	$172	69
1276 Meridian Dr	0.21mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,162 (+13%)	0mo	$315,000	$146	60
10083 Highland Prairie Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	2,019 (+5%)	6mo	$399,000	$198	54
10128 Highland Prairie Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	2,060 (+7%)	2mo	$425,000	$206	54
1812 Lockhart Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,974 (+3%)	9mo	$319,999	$162	49
1272 Caprock Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	2,208 (+15%)	9mo	$334,990	$152	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-82,967
• Equity at exit: $46,207

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.43×
• Total profit: $-124,332
• Equity at exit: $26,794

Cash invested: $86,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2179
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,499 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,625
• Tax from tax record: −$601 /mo · $7,217/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-456

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,077

Max offer price $229,318

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-281	-5% $-368	+0% $-456	+5% $-544	+10% $-632
Rent	-10% $-654	-5% $-555	+0% $-456	+5% $-357	+10% $-259
Rate	-1.0pp $-300	-0.5pp $-377	base $-456	+0.5pp $-536	+1.0pp $-618

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,475
• Closing costs: $9,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1560 Seminole Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2020	$2,400	$1.19	13d	1	0.02mi
1557 Wyler Dr Unit 1557 Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2064	$2,850	$1.38	44d	1	0.09mi
1210 Lambert Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2338	$2,695	$1.15	24d	1	0.13mi
1253 Herring Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1906	$2,350	$1.23	44d	1	0.14mi
1282 Herring Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2344	$2,995	$1.28	24d	1	0.15mi
1237 Herring Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2338	$2,400	$1.03	44d	1	0.15mi
1246 Herring Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2338	$2,995	$1.28	15d	1	0.16mi
1238 Herring Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	1912	$2,450	$1.28	7d	1	0.17mi
1213 Herring Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1876	$2,150	$1.15	7d	1	0.18mi
1553 Sugarberry Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2348	$2,900	$1.24	15d	1	0.20mi
1593 Kessler Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1868	$2,450	$1.31	19d	1	0.21mi
1260 Meridian Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1960	$2,200	$1.12	3d	1	0.21mi
1304 Meridian Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2037	$2,269	$1.11	17d	1	0.28mi
1832 Sandlin Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2058	$2,400	$1.17	44d	1	0.49mi
1822 Sandlin Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2338	$2,076	$0.89	7d	1	0.50mi
1818 Sandlin Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2060	$2,090	$1.01	2d	1	0.50mi
1736 Everglades Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2333	$2,650	$1.14	44d	1	0.53mi
1804 Sandlin Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2338	$2,151	$0.92	21d	1	0.54mi
1817 Lockhart Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2331	$2,950	$1.27	7d	1	0.71mi
1829 Pueblo St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,350	$1.29	7d	1	0.87mi
1816 Pueblo St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2204	$2,350	$1.07	44d	1	0.89mi
1820 Pueblo St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1900	$2,245	$1.18	44d	1	0.89mi
1832 Pueblo St Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2060	$2,090	$1.01	2d	1	0.90mi
1876 Lockhart Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2058	$2,950	$1.43	44d	1	0.90mi
1888 Everglades Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1961	$3,235	$1.65	7d	1	0.92mi
1848 McCree St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,450	$1.27	44d	1	0.95mi
1300 N Gateway Blvd Forney, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1039	$2,492	$2.40	1d	22	0.98mi
1100 Alexandria Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1574	$1,895	$1.20	44d	1	1.20mi
1100 Alexandria Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1553	$1,725	$1.11	7d	1	1.20mi
1019 Chelsea Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,230	$1.21	5d	1	1.29mi
3111 Marble Falls Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1943	$2,145	$1.10	44d	1	1.30mi
3100 Marble Falls Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2124	$2,195	$1.03	44d	1	1.32mi
1123 Singletree Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1492	$1,750	$1.17	24d	1	1.36mi
1123 Singletree Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1492	$1,750	$1.17	3d	1	1.36mi
3125 Granite Rock Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2090	$2,350	$1.12	19d	1	1.41mi
3005 Guadalupe Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2169	$2,195	$1.01	44d	1	1.42mi
1111 Cumberland Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,750	$1.23	44d	1	1.42mi
1201 Cumberland Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2077	$2,100	$1.01	7d	1	1.45mi
1108 Halifax Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,835	$1.22	7d	1	1.46mi
1108 Halifax Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,835	$1.22	18d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $309,900 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $309,900 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $309,900 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $309,900 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $309,900 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $309,900 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $309,900 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $309,900 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $309,900 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $309,900 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $309,900 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $309,900 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $309,900 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $309,900 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    price $309,900 1148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1148 chars)

    Seller willing to pay towards concessions! Beautifully maintained 3 bedroom 2 bath home with outstanding curb appeal and open layout. Interior features include luxury vinyl plank flooring and a neutral color palette,. The kitchen serves as the heart of the home, showcasing granite countertops, ample counterspace, and cabinetry with modern hardware. Designed with both style and functionality in mind, kitchen overlooks the living and dining area, creating an inviting, open concept layout that’s perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The versatile floor plan offers a spacious flex room ideal for a home office, media room, or additional living area. The private primary suite includes a garden tub, dual sinks, and a large walk-in closet. Split secondary bedrooms provide privacy and share a full bath. Enjoy outdoor living year round with a covered back porch, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The spacious backyard offers plenty of room for gatherings and play. Gateway Parks amenities include two pools, a splash pad, workout facility, ample amount of green spaces, walking trails, and BBQ and picnic area. No PID or MUD

16. 2026-05-03
    price $319,900 1148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1148 chars)

    Seller willing to pay towards concessions! Beautifully maintained 3 bedroom 2 bath home with outstanding curb appeal and open layout. Interior features include luxury vinyl plank flooring and a neutral color palette,. The kitchen serves as the heart of the home, showcasing granite countertops, ample counterspace, and cabinetry with modern hardware. Designed with both style and functionality in mind, kitchen overlooks the living and dining area, creating an inviting, open concept layout that’s perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The versatile floor plan offers a spacious flex room ideal for a home office, media room, or additional living area. The private primary suite includes a garden tub, dual sinks, and a large walk-in closet. Split secondary bedrooms provide privacy and share a full bath. Enjoy outdoor living year round with a covered back porch, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The spacious backyard offers plenty of room for gatherings and play. Gateway Parks amenities include two pools, a splash pad, workout facility, ample amount of green spaces, walking trails, and BBQ and picnic area. No PID or MUD

17. 2026-04-21
    listed $324,900 Active 1148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1148 chars)

    Seller willing to pay towards concessions! Beautifully maintained 3 bedroom 2 bath home with outstanding curb appeal and open layout. Interior features include luxury vinyl plank flooring and a neutral color palette,. The kitchen serves as the heart of the home, showcasing granite countertops, ample counterspace, and cabinetry with modern hardware. Designed with both style and functionality in mind, kitchen overlooks the living and dining area, creating an inviting, open concept layout that’s perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The versatile floor plan offers a spacious flex room ideal for a home office, media room, or additional living area. The private primary suite includes a garden tub, dual sinks, and a large walk-in closet. Split secondary bedrooms provide privacy and share a full bath. Enjoy outdoor living year round with a covered back porch, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The spacious backyard offers plenty of room for gatherings and play. Gateway Parks amenities include two pools, a splash pad, workout facility, ample amount of green spaces, walking trails, and BBQ and picnic area. No PID or MUD

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,217 · $601/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,217 · $601/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,993
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,359
• − Property taxes: −$7,217
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,399
• − Management: −$2,399
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$9,015
• Taxable loss: −$10,847
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,603
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,871/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forney, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $309,900 NTREIS
• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $319,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $324,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+26.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,217 · -1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.