125-131 Bradford Dr · Paris, KY 40361

$450,000

12 bd · 6.0 ba · 4,704 sqft · MultiFamily · 4 Days on market

Average condition 0.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• Listed 4 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 12-bed/6.0-bath multifamily listed at $450k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $164 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $423k (6.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $423k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.0% in Paris — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#218 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Bourbon County (town): math 26% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #108 of 165 in KY (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Bourbon Central Elementary School (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #393 of 676 statewide, top 63%, 483 students, 70% FRL); Bourbon County Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #125 of 217 statewide, top 63%, 593 students, 63% FRL); Bourbon County High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 790 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 128 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Bourbon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,228/mo this rent would consume 80% of the median local household income ($63k/yr) (locally 509% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $422,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.19%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-62,381
• Equity at exit: $67,096

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-40,461
• Equity at exit: $38,908

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40361

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 35.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,228 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$562 /mo · $6,750/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$888
• Net cashflow: $164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,021

Max offer price $450,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $475	-5% $319	+0% $164	+5% $8	+10% $-147
Rent	-10% $-170	-5% $-3	+0% $164	+5% $331	+10% $498
Rate	-1.0pp $390	-0.5pp $278	base $164	+0.5pp $47	+1.0pp $-71

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	2	1	$4,228
Total (4 units)			$4,228

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   listed $450,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,736
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$6,750
• − Insurance: −$3,048
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,059
• − Management: −$4,059
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$5,477
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,315
• After-tax cash flow: $3,280/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

A multi-family property with average condition, requiring minor repairs and maintenance to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Exterior paint — Slight discoloration visible on siding.
• Minor Landscaping — Some areas could use trimming and additional plants.
• Minor Interior paint — Slight wear visible on walls and trim.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and property value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Improves curb appeal and adds value.
• Both Interior paint refresh — Enhances interior appearance and value.
• Both HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency, boosting value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior paint · Slight discoloration visible on siding.	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Some areas could use trimming and additional plants.	Minor	$500–3,000
Interior paint · Slight wear visible on walls and trim.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Improves curb appeal and adds value. ↑
• Both Interior paint refresh — Enhances interior appearance and value. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency, boosting value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bourbon County
• NCES district ID: 2100540
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -21.00%
• Median HH income: $47,654
• Composite: 25.13/100
• National rank: #7523
• State rank: #108 of 165 in KY

Livability — Paris

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #10589

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paris, KY
• County: Bourbon County · 18,361 people
• City population: 18,361
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• Population (ZIP): 18,361
• Household income: $63,333
• Rent vs Own: 35.7% rent · 64.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 509.0

Population outlook (Bourbon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,485 people
• By 2030: 20,559 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 20,491 · +0.0%
• By 2050: 20,065 · -2.1%
• By 2075: 19,173 · -6.4%
• By 2100: 16,646 · -18.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bourbon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.5) · D 32.4% · R 65.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.2pp · 2024: -33.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.5 2020: R+30.0 2016: R+31.6 2012: R+20.4 2008: R+17.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.90%
• Current HPI: 241.9393
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $450,000 ImagineMLS