535 Jeff Davis Dr · Sugar Land, TX 77469

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,419 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 188 Days on market

Built 1982 6,194 sqft lot $141/sqft · 15% below area Est $236k · 15% under $22/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Newly priced, this charming Single-Family home boasts recent updates to the roof, driveway, paint, flooring, and appliances. Featuring granite counters, a bookshelf in the living area, and 2in blinds, this 3 bed, 2 bath property is a great find. Situated near schools and a neighborhood park, and adjacent to Greatwood, it offers convenience and comfort. Built in 1982 with 1419 sqft of living space on a 6196 sqft lot, this home is a must-see.

Key facts

• Recent driveway
• Book shelf in living
• Close to schools

Tags

• RECENT ROOF
• RECENT DRIVEWAY
• RECENT CARPET
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• BOOK SHELF IN LIVING
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $132 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.6% in Sugar Land — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#38 in TX, #1,758 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1332 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.82%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,506
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -15.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
627 Stonewall Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,419 (0%)	2mo	$235,000	$166	94
535 Shenandoah Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,470 (+4%)	2mo	$225,000	$153	86
6724 Pickett Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,459 (+3%)	2mo	$250,000	$171	82
531 Tara Plantation Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,515 (+7%)	4mo	$260,000	$172	82
6930 Kearney Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,303 (-8%)	1mo	$219,999	$169	70
6915 Kearney Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,517 (+7%)	2mo	$250,000	$165	68
6918 Gettysburg Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,628 (+15%)	1mo	$239,000	$147	67
213 Willoughby Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,470 (+4%)	1mo	$244,880	$167	64
6731 Gettysburg Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,628 (+15%)	1mo	$254,900	$157	64
7126 Sharpsburg Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,580 (+11%)	4mo	$242,000	$153	64
218 Tara Plantation Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,580 (+11%)	3mo	$235,000	$149	60
222 Tara Plantation Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,210 (-15%)	3mo	$200,000	$165	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-29,992
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-38,418
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77469

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 1332
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,079 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$357 /mo · $4,286/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$22
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,912

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $245	-5% $188	+0% $132	+5% $75	+10% $18
Rent	-10% $-33	-5% $49	+0% $132	+5% $214	+10% $296
Rate	-1.0pp $232	-0.5pp $182	base $132	+0.5pp $80	+1.0pp $27

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6826 Blue Ridge Dr Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$1,769	$1.12	44d	1	0.29mi
6915 Renfro Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	1517	$1,745	$1.15	21d	1	0.44mi
1601 Crabb River Rd Richmond, TX	2.0	2.0	1149	$1,939	$1.69	19d	1	0.63mi
5200 Pointe West Cir Richmond, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1125	$2,550	$2.27	2d	16	1.20mi
5200 Pointe West Cir Richmond, TX	2.0	2.0	1149	$1,939	$1.69	44d	1	1.20mi
5200 Pointe West Cir Richmond, TX	2.0	2.0	1149	$1,939	$1.69	25d	1	1.20mi
5200 Pointe West Cir Unit 5233 Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1507	$2,429	$1.61	44d	1	1.23mi
5200 Pointe West Cir Unit 2174 Richmond, TX	2.0	2.0	1149	$1,943	$1.69	17d	1	1.23mi
5200 Pointe West Cir Unit 5237 Richmond, TX	2.0	2.0	1244	$2,152	$1.73	44d	1	1.23mi
5200 Pointe West Cir Unit 3174 Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1507	$2,306	$1.53	17d	1	1.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $22 · $264/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 188 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $199,900 Active 185 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $199,900 Active 184 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,900 Active 183 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,900 Active 182 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,900 Active 181 DOM
7. 2026-05-15
   price $199,900 444-char remark

   Show marketing remark (444 chars)

   Newly priced, this charming Single-Family home boasts recent updates to the roof, driveway, paint, flooring, and appliances. Featuring granite counters, a bookshelf in the living area, and 2in blinds, this 3 bed, 2 bath property is a great find. Situated near schools and a neighborhood park, and adjacent to Greatwood, it offers convenience and comfort. Built in 1982 with 1419 sqft of living space on a 6196 sqft lot, this home is a must-see.

8. 2026-03-05
   price $219,900 444-char remark

   Show marketing remark (444 chars)

   Newly priced, this charming Single-Family home boasts recent updates to the roof, driveway, paint, flooring, and appliances. Featuring granite counters, a bookshelf in the living area, and 2in blinds, this 3 bed, 2 bath property is a great find. Situated near schools and a neighborhood park, and adjacent to Greatwood, it offers convenience and comfort. Built in 1982 with 1419 sqft of living space on a 6196 sqft lot, this home is a must-see.

9. 2026-02-06
   price $227,900 444-char remark

   Show marketing remark (444 chars)

   Newly priced, this charming Single-Family home boasts recent updates to the roof, driveway, paint, flooring, and appliances. Featuring granite counters, a bookshelf in the living area, and 2in blinds, this 3 bed, 2 bath property is a great find. Situated near schools and a neighborhood park, and adjacent to Greatwood, it offers convenience and comfort. Built in 1982 with 1419 sqft of living space on a 6196 sqft lot, this home is a must-see.

10. 2025-12-01
    listed $235,000 Active 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    Newly priced, this charming Single-Family home boasts recent updates to the roof, driveway, paint, flooring, and appliances. Featuring granite counters, a bookshelf in the living area, and 2in blinds, this 3 bed, 2 bath property is a great find. Situated near schools and a neighborhood park, and adjacent to Greatwood, it offers convenience and comfort. Built in 1982 with 1419 sqft of living space on a 6196 sqft lot, this home is a must-see.

11. 2011-08-01
    soldstatus 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    FORECLOSURE--- CHECK THIS PRICE!!!! 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH AND 2 CAR GARAGE HOME BUILT IN 1982!!! THIS COULD BE THE FORECLOSURE YOU ARE LOOKING FOR!!! BUYER OR BUYER S AGENT TO VERIFY ALL INFORMATION: SCHOOLS, TAXES, RESTRICTIONS AND ROOM SIZES, ETC. SOLD AS IS

12. 2011-06-14
    historical 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    FORECLOSURE--- CHECK THIS PRICE!!!! 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH AND 2 CAR GARAGE HOME BUILT IN 1982!!! THIS COULD BE THE FORECLOSURE YOU ARE LOOKING FOR!!! BUYER OR BUYER S AGENT TO VERIFY ALL INFORMATION: SCHOOLS, TAXES, RESTRICTIONS AND ROOM SIZES, ETC. SOLD AS IS

13. 2011-05-08
    listed $48,000 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    FORECLOSURE--- CHECK THIS PRICE!!!! 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH AND 2 CAR GARAGE HOME BUILT IN 1982!!! THIS COULD BE THE FORECLOSURE YOU ARE LOOKING FOR!!! BUYER OR BUYER S AGENT TO VERIFY ALL INFORMATION: SCHOOLS, TAXES, RESTRICTIONS AND ROOM SIZES, ETC. SOLD AS IS

14. 2010-11-16
    historical
15. 2010-06-03
    listed $95,900
16. 2005-02-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,286 · $357/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,286 · $357/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,948
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$4,286
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,996
• − Management: −$1,996
• − HOA: −$264
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$1,606
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$386
• After-tax cash flow: $1,965/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sugar Land

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #1758

Category grades

Amenities A Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 168,209
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,826
• Household income: $102,125
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1292.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 29% White 27% Black 25% Two or more races 15% Asian 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.66%
• Current HPI: 234.9892
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.81%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+108.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $219,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $227,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-01 Listed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2011-08-01 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2011-06-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-05-08 Listed $48,000 HARMLS
• 2010-11-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-06-03 Listed $95,900 HARMLS
• 2005-02-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,286 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.