🏷️ Likely Rental
409 Quaker Ct · Pocono Pines, PA
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $511 – $949
Heat risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Hot days now (above 89°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 16 days/yr
Wind risk 3/10 · Minor
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 7.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 2 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- Cash flow +7.9/30.0
- Appreciation +4.3/10.0
- Schools +4.0/10.0
- Livability +3.7/5.0
- 1% rule +2.9/10.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- DSCR +1.9/10.0
$269,000
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Today is your day. Spacious, ready to move in or send your favorite tenant. Two story, functions perfectly for a crowd, light, bright and up-dated. Four Bedrooms, three baths and an surprising amount of ''Space to Play''. Large decking for your outside fun. Located in Arrowhead Lake, a four season recreational development. That plan for rental success you have in your head, Arrowhead is actually ready to impliment that plan you have. Go directly ''#Up The Poconos'' ! I'll see you there.
Key facts
- Large decking
- Arrowhead lake
- Two story
Tags
Property features AI
Finance
- Other: Property listed for residential and investment use; Lot approximately 0.33 acres (68' x 195' x 74' x 204'); Subdivision: Arrowhead Lakes
- HOA & community: Part of a homeowners association (Arrowhead Lakes); Annual association fee; Association amenities include security, gated entry, clubhouse, playground, fitness center, tennis courts, basketball court, other game courts, and a pool; Association fee covers trash, snow removal, and grounds maintenance
Exterior
- Parking: 1-car garage; Open parking with approximately 45 spaces; Driveway; Gravel parking; Off-street, private parking; Garage faces front
- Utilities: Well water; Propane service; 200+ amp electric service
- Home design: Single-family house; 2 stories; Ground-level entry; Residential property used as residential and investment; No common walls; Central living area accessibility feature
- Construction: Asbestos shingle roof; Slab foundation; Construction materials: Unknown; Built as a house (structure type)
- Exterior features: Deck; Sliding doors; Level, wooded lot; Gravel road frontage on a private maintained road; Private road access
Interior
- Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Eat-in kitchen
- Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
- Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
- Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Has heating
- Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Laminate countertops; Partially furnished; Double-pane, insulated windows; Living room fireplace (1)
- Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry located in bathroom
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $269k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-289 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (19.0% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (21.0% below list).
- Recommended offer: $212k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
- Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 4.0% in Pocono Pines — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 74/100 on livability (#532 in PA, #4,925 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
- Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Market conditions: 247 active listings in the ZIP; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($265k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- Current owner paid $172k; list at $269k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.79% ✗
- Cap rate
- 5.00%
- Cash-on-cash
- -4.61%
- DSCR
- 0.79
- GRM
- 10.6
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $372,712
- List price
- $269,000
- Delta
- -27.83%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5345 Conoquenissing Dr | 0.02mi | 3/1.5 | 864 (-10%) | 2mo | $224,500 | $260 | 81 |
| 162 Safro Ct | 0.37mi | 3/1.0 | 960 (0%) | 8mo | $245,000 | $255 | 74 |
| 169 Minisink Dr | 0.21mi | 3/1.0 | 1,044 (+9%) | 3mo | $260,000 | $249 | 71 |
| 192 Wyalusing Dr | 0.42mi | 3/1.0 | 992 (+3%) | 6mo | $237,000 | $239 | 68 |
| 146 Outer Dr | 0.32mi | 3/1.0 | 912 (-5%) | 9mo | $225,000 | $247 | 67 |
| 272 Wyalusing Dr | 0.24mi | 3/1.0 | 865 (-10%) | 5mo | $215,000 | $249 | 66 |
| 433 Orono Dr | 0.53mi | 3/1.0 | 1,008 (+5%) | 9mo | $190,000 | $188 | 58 |
| 1119 Shasta Dr | 0.65mi | 2/1.0 (-1) | 941 (-2%) | 6mo | $225,000 | $239 | 54 |
| 5110 Tenicum Dr | 0.60mi | 3/1.0 | 864 (-10%) | 1mo | $230,000 | $266 | 53 |
| 201 Pontiac Path | 0.53mi | 3/2.0 | 1,092 (+14%) | 5mo | $255,000 | $234 | 46 |
| 323 Orono Dr | 0.50mi | 2/1.0 (-1) | 1,100 (+15%) | 5mo | $212,000 | $193 | 41 |
| 202 Choctaw Dr | 0.70mi | 3/1.5 | 1,100 (+15%) | 7mo | $270,000 | $245 | 37 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-1.47% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -14.3%
- Equity multiple
- 0.41×
- Total profit
- $-44,263
- Equity at exit
- $58,889
- IRR
- -7.3%
- Equity multiple
- 0.39×
- Total profit
- $-45,689
- Equity at exit
- $56,824
Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 62 Landlord-Friendly
- State Pennsylvania
- 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 18347
- Home prices YoY
- -0.7%
- Active inventory
- 247
- Price-to-rent
- 10.6×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,124 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,411
- Tax from tax record
- −$271 /mo · $3,258/yr
- Insurance
- −$112
- HOA
- −$173
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$446
- Net cashflow
- $-289
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $67,250
- Closing costs
- $8,070
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
HOA detail
- Monthly dues
- $173 · $2,076/yr
Listing history 8 events
-
2026-06-03status $269,000 Pending 20 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $269,000 Active 20 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $269,000 Active 19 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $269,000 Active 18 DOM
-
2026-05-30days on market $269,000 Active 17 DOM
-
2026-05-13$269,000 Active 492-char remark
-
2007-03-30soldstatus $172,000
-
2002-12-03soldstatus $115,000
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $3,258 · $271/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $3,754 · $313/mo
- Expected delta
- +$496/yr (+$41/mo · 15.2%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 2/10 Low
- Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $25,488
- − Mortgage interest
- −$15,068
- − Property taxes
- −$3,258
- − Insurance
- −$1,345
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,039
- − Management
- −$2,039
- − HOA
- −$2,076
- − Depreciation
- −$7,825
- Taxable loss
- −$8,163
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$1,959
- After-tax cash flow
- $-1,512/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Pocono Mountain SD
- NCES district ID
- 4219500
- Math proficiency
- 37% ▼ -5.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 55% ▲ 1.00%
- Median HH income
- $55,317
- Composite
- 39.91/100
- National rank
- #3856
- State rank
- #245 of 539 in PA
Livability — Pocono Pines
- Score
- 74/100
- State rank
- #532
- US rank
- #4925
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- City population
- 595
- Population (ZIP)
- 3,535
Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 164,099 people
- By 2030
- 161,412 · -1.6%
- By 2040
- 154,616 · -5.8%
- By 2050
- 146,710 · -10.6%
- By 2075
- 140,830 · -14.2%
- By 2100
- 138,472 · -15.6%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (87%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 87% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 2% Two or more races 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 16% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
- Foreign-born
- 3% · Canada, Jamaica
- Languages at home
- 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Monroe
- 2024 margin
- Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -1.47%
- Current HPI
- 202.3693
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.68%
- F500 in state
- 34
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Healthcare | 2 | $309B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $27B |
|
||
| Telecommunications / Media | 1 | $124B |
|
||
| Industrial Distribution | 1 | $22B |
|
||
| Financial Services | 1 | $20B |
|
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| Chemicals / Materials | 1 | $18B |
|
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Price history
+133.9% since first listed4 events — show timeline
- 2026-06-02 Pending — PMAR
- 2026-05-13 Listed $269,000 PMAR
- 2007-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $172,000 Public Records
- 2002-12-03 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
Property tax history
-0.2%/yrLatest (2026): $3,258 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…