4108 Belmont Dr · Providence Village, TX 76227

$218,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,191 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 123 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 3,398 sqft lot $183/sqft · at area comps Est $229k · at est. $94/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Assumable loan available at 4.15% a rare opportunity in today’s market. This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2.5 bath home offers approximately 1,200 square feet in the desirable Providence Village community, zoned to Aubrey ISD. The open-concept layout connects the living, kitchen, and dining areas, creating a functional space for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite is privately located on the main level, with two additional bedrooms upstairs for guests, office space, or flexibility. The home also features smart home upgrades, a tankless water heater, irrigation system, and included fiber internet through the HOA. Conveniently located near US 380 with easy access to shopping, dining, and surrounding areas.

Key facts

• Private backyard
• Full guttering
• 3,398 sq ft lot

Tags

• LIGHT FILLED LIVING AREA
• BREAKFAST BAR WITH SEATING
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• MODERN SMART HOME FEATURES
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• FULL GUTTERING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $218k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-123 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (15.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.8% in Providence Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#567 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Aubrey ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #119 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 1885 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $183,866 (15.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.42%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $228,974
• List price: $218,000
• Delta: -4.79%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4228 Haflinger Rd	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,206 (+1%)	2mo	$222,900	$185	92
12160 Steeplechase Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,189 (-0%)	2mo	$207,149	$174	90
12137 Steeplechase Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,189 (-0%)	2mo	$202,349	$170	90
12136 Steeplechase Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,189 (-0%)	2mo	$218,699	$184	89
12113 Steeplechase Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,189 (-0%)	2mo	$206,249	$173	88
12101 Steeplechase Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,189 (-0%)	2mo	$212,999	$179	88
12129 Steeplechase Dr	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+14%)	1mo	$216,999	$160	69
3156 Burmese St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+6%)	2mo	$245,999	$194	68
3172 Burmese St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+6%)	2mo	$231,199	$183	67
10208 Barron Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,352 (+14%)	2mo	$285,050	$211	43
10325 Barron Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,352 (+14%)	3mo	$349,990	$259	42
10412 Barron Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,352 (+14%)	3mo	$273,990	$203	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-48,470
• Equity at exit: $32,505

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-72,824
• Equity at exit: $18,849

Cash invested: $61,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76227

• Home prices YoY: -19.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 1885
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,839 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,143
• Tax from tax record: −$247 /mo · $2,968/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$94
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,994

Max offer price $196,293

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,500
• Closing costs: $6,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12176 Morgan Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1360	$1,695	$1.25	43d	1	0.04mi
12161 Morgan Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1360	$1,695	$1.25	43d	1	0.05mi
12156 Morgan Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,595	$1.34	43d	1	0.07mi
4217 Belmont Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1203	$1,695	$1.41	7d	1	0.09mi
12132 Thoroughbred Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1361	$1,835	$1.35	43d	1	0.09mi
12145 Falabella Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1202	$1,695	$1.41	43d	1	0.15mi
12112 Steeplechase Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1204	$1,690	$1.40	24d	1	0.18mi
4049 Criollo Ct Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,825	$1.27	43d	1	0.23mi
3160 Burmese St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,795	$1.27	43d	1	0.38mi
3133 Campeiro Ave Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,850	$1.32	24d	1	0.38mi
3132 Burmese St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,775	$1.27	7d	1	0.40mi
3117 Campeiro Ave Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,895	$1.35	7d	1	0.41mi
3141 Burmese St Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1402	$1,945	$1.39	43d	1	0.41mi
3040 Campeiro Ave Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,695	$1.21	18d	1	0.42mi
13109 Don Fisher Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,195	$1.55	43d	1	0.46mi
3112 Tokara St Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,045	$1.45	43d	1	0.46mi
3009 Tokara St Krugerville, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,900	$1.35	43d	1	0.57mi
13136 Hideaway Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,000	$1.41	18d	1	0.65mi
10325 Baron Dr , TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$2,250	$1.69	43d	1	0.67mi
13173 Enclave Pkwy Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1489	$2,100	$1.41	11d	1	0.87mi
11616 Roaring Fork Trl Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,100	$1.45	11d	1	0.91mi
11136 Canyon Mine Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1496	$2,099	$1.40	19d	1	1.04mi
1821 Pentro Pkwy Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,825	$1.23	24d	1	1.09mi
1221 Bristol Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,950	$1.50	43d	1	1.32mi
10200 Cedar Lake Dr Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.5	1493	$1,900	$1.27	43d	1	1.35mi
724 Glover Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,200	$1.52	43d	1	1.43mi
5037 FM 2931 Aubrey, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1008	$1,320	$1.31	24d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $94 · $1,128/yr
• Likely covers: waterinternet

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $218,000 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $218,000 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $218,000 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $218,000 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $218,000 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $218,000 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $218,000 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $218,000 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-04-23
   price $218,000 742-char remark

   Show marketing remark (742 chars)

   Assumable loan available at 4.15% a rare opportunity in today’s market. This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2.5 bath home offers approximately 1,200 square feet in the desirable Providence Village community, zoned to Aubrey ISD. The open-concept layout connects the living, kitchen, and dining areas, creating a functional space for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite is privately located on the main level, with two additional bedrooms upstairs for guests, office space, or flexibility. The home also features smart home upgrades, a tankless water heater, irrigation system, and included fiber internet through the HOA. Conveniently located near US 380 with easy access to shopping, dining, and surrounding areas.

10. 2026-02-13
    price $220,000 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    Assumable loan available at 4.15% a rare opportunity in today’s market. This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2.5 bath home offers approximately 1,200 square feet in the desirable Providence Village community, zoned to Aubrey ISD. The open-concept layout connects the living, kitchen, and dining areas, creating a functional space for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite is privately located on the main level, with two additional bedrooms upstairs for guests, office space, or flexibility. The home also features smart home upgrades, a tankless water heater, irrigation system, and included fiber internet through the HOA. Conveniently located near US 380 with easy access to shopping, dining, and surrounding areas.

11. 2026-02-06
    listed $224,000 Active 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    Assumable loan available at 4.15% a rare opportunity in today’s market. This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2.5 bath home offers approximately 1,200 square feet in the desirable Providence Village community, zoned to Aubrey ISD. The open-concept layout connects the living, kitchen, and dining areas, creating a functional space for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite is privately located on the main level, with two additional bedrooms upstairs for guests, office space, or flexibility. The home also features smart home upgrades, a tankless water heater, irrigation system, and included fiber internet through the HOA. Conveniently located near US 380 with easy access to shopping, dining, and surrounding areas.

12. 2026-02-04
    historical
13. 2025-12-10
    listed $225,000 Active
14. 2025-02-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,968 · $247/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,989 · $332/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,021/yr (+$85/mo · 34.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,064
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,211
• − Property taxes: −$2,968
• − Insurance: −$1,090
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,765
• − Management: −$1,765
• − HOA: −$1,128
• − Depreciation: −$6,342
• Taxable loss: −$5,206
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,249
• After-tax cash flow: $-225/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2.5 bath home in Providence Village offers a good condition with minimal repairs needed. The smart home upgrades and landscaping improvements can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale landscaping — enhances curb appeal
• Both smart home upgrades — increases home value and convenience

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale landscaping — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both smart home upgrades — increases home value and convenience ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aubrey ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808910
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $77,154
• Composite: 46.21/100
• National rank: #2492
• State rank: #119 of 826 in TX

Livability — Providence Village

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #567
• US rank: #10856

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Providence Village, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 62,127
• Household income: $111,402
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 959.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.76%
• Current HPI: 254.2895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.88%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $218,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $220,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $224,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-04 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-12-10 Listed $225,000 NTREIS
• 2025-02-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+144.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,968 · +409.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.