3 Jefferson St · Woodbury, NY 10930

$325,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,488 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1940 0.32 ac lot Est $427k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home situated on a level lot in the desirable Woodbury community of Highland Mills. Features include spacious living areas, a country kitchen, 4 bedrooms, and a private wooded yard perfect for outdoor enjoyment. Conveniently located near shopping, parks, major commuter routes, and within the Monroe-Woodbury School District. Great opportunity to own a home in a sought-after location. Solar panels are leased at $55/month

Key facts

• Country kitchen
• Private wooded yard
• 0.32 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVATE WOODED YARD
• COUNTRY KITCHEN
• SOUGHT-AFTER LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public sewer; Electric service by Orange & Rockland
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Asbestos exterior construction; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Wooded lot; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Range
• Bedrooms: Includes a bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Oil heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; 7 total rooms; Crawl space/attic
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $325,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$427,056) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $523 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $325k).
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 1.9% in Woodbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#663 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Monroe-Woodbury Central School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #250 of 590 in NY (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Central Valley Elementary School (math 31% / reading 53%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 448 students, 43% FRL); Monroe-Woodbury Middle School (math 28% / reading 50%, grade F, #433 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 1,584 students, 40% FRL); Monroe-Woodbury High School (math 98% / reading 95%, grade A+, #56 of 1,100 statewide, top 5%, 2,353 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 15% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($120k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $325,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.90%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $427,056
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
93 Weygant Hl	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (+2%)	3mo	$445,000	$294	81
17 Hickory St	0.39mi	4/1.5	1,546 (+4%)	2mo	$399,000	$258	74
7 Sycamore Ct	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,518 (+2%)	4mo	$455,000	$300	70
8 Ledger View Ct	0.25mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,569 (+5%)	6mo	$500,000	$319	65
3 Laurel Ct	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,575 (+6%)	3mo	$429,900	$273	64
10 Cliffside Ct	0.35mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,569 (+5%)	10mo	$485,000	$309	57
4 Cliffside Ct	0.38mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,569 (+5%)	10mo	$450,000	$287	56
10 Ironwood Dr	0.38mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,614 (+8%)	5mo	$420,000	$260	56
13 Butternut Ct	0.28mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,704 (+14%)	2mo	$435,000	$255	52
183 Ridge Rd	0.59mi	4/2.5	1,644 (+10%)	19mo	$545,000	$332	35
10 Park Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,348 (-9%)	15mo	$321,000	$238	34
6 Lilac Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,587 (+7%)	20mo	$160,000	$101	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-19,199
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $26,775
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10930

• Home prices YoY: -15.8%
• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,689 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$552 /mo · $6,620/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$775
• Net cashflow: $523

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,027

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8 Fillmore Ct Highland Mills, NY	3.0	1.5	1836	$3,300	$1.80	21d	1	0.11mi
19 Mountainview Dr Highland Mills, NY	4.0	1.5	1622	$3,500	$2.16	23d	1	0.34mi
468 State Route 32 Highland Mills, NY	3.0	2.5	1722	$2,250	$1.31	21d	1	0.72mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $325,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $325,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $325,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    remarks 452-char remark
11. 2026-06-05
    listed $325,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,620 · $552/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,620 · $552/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,271
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$6,620
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,542
• − Management: −$3,542
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable income: $1,284
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$308
• After-tax cash flow: $5,970/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monroe-Woodbury Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619650
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $104,681
• Composite: 50.48/100
• National rank: #1855
• State rank: #250 of 590 in NY

Livability — Woodbury

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #663
• US rank: #11975

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Woodbury, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• City population: 9,402
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 9,569
• Household income: $120,098
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 104.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 16% Black 10% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 14% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Scandinavian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 11% German/W. Germanic 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.76%
• Current HPI: 271.431
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $325,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,620 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.