New Haven II Plan · Edmond, OK 73007

$418,700

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,320 sqft · SingleFamily · 797 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Key facts

• Large windows
• Flex room
• Rear patio

Tags

• LARGE WINDOWS
• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• FIREPLACE
• REAR PATIO
• FLEX ROOM
• OWNER'S SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $418,700

Exterior

• Parking: 3 total parking spaces; 3-car garage
• Utilities: Natural gas; Central air (electric)
• Home design: New construction plan (New Haven II)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2320; Address: Arcadia, OK (Rivercrest Rd)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living area (plan); Plan name: New Haven II

🏗️ New construction. The $418,700 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $457,040.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $419k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-776 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $345k (17.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $302k (28.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $302k (28.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.4% in Edmond — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in OK, #2,383 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A-; Watch: health & safety C-, commute F.
• Edmond (suburban): math 38% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #11 of 270 in OK (top 4%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 192 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,365 units permitted in Oklahoma County in 2024 (569 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $49k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $46k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Oklahoma County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$79k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 797 days — a 12% lower offer ($368k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $301,525 (28.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 797 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.28%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $457,040
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3041 Cedar Spring Ct	0.25mi	4/2.5	2,380 (+3%)	6mo	$450,000	$189	79
3249 Mangrove Rd	0.36mi	4/3.0	2,300 (-1%)	2mo	$467,840	$203	78
3009 Cedar Spring Ct	0.26mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,233 (-4%)	1mo	$440,000	$197	74
8724 Beechgrove Dr	0.40mi	4/2.5	2,314 (-0%)	9mo	$450,000	$194	74
8308 Mountain Oak Dr	0.42mi	4/3.0	2,300 (-1%)	6mo	$458,840	$199	72
2832 Clover Field Dr	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,333 (+1%)	1mo	$465,000	$199	66
8400 Poplar Dr	0.36mi	4/3.0	2,440 (+5%)	8mo	$454,000	$186	66
3017 Birchwood Cir	0.20mi	4/2.0	2,027 (-13%)	7mo	$385,000	$190	62
8316 Mountain Oak Dr	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,450 (+6%)	6mo	$488,425	$199	61
3432 Rolling Park Rd	0.31mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,563 (+10%)	1mo	$510,000	$199	60
8133 Mountain Oak Dr	0.53mi	4/3.0	2,450 (+6%)	6mo	$476,840	$195	59
8809 Westlake Dr	0.36mi	4/4.0	2,668 (+15%)	4mo	$499,900	$187	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $199,509
• Equity at exit: $411,738

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.90×
• Total profit: $626,500
• Equity at exit: $887,928

Cash invested: $127,971 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73007

• Home prices YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 192
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,015 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,397
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$571 /mo · $6,856/yr
• Insurance: −$190
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$633
• Net cashflow: $-776

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,998

Max offer price $344,686

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $114,260
• Closing costs: $13,711
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2816 Oak Hill Ave Edmond, OK	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,395	$1.30	1d	1	0.57mi
7901 Behr Dr Edmond, OK	5.0	4.0	2829	$4,000	$1.41	20d	1	1.10mi
3116 Drake Crest Dr Edmond, OK	5.0	3.0	2950	$3,250	$1.10	1d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $418,700 Active 797 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $418,700 Active 796 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $418,700 Active 795 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $418,700 Active 794 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $418,700 Active 792 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $418,700 Active 788 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $418,700 Active 787 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $418,700 Active 786 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $418,700 Active 782 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $418,700 Active 781 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $418,700 Active 780 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $418,700 Active 779 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,183
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,601
• − Property taxes: −$6,856
• − Insurance: −$2,285
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,895
• − Management: −$2,895
• − Depreciation: −$13,296
• Taxable loss: −$17,644
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,235
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,083/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Edmond
• NCES district ID: 4010590
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $73,212
• Composite: 35.88/100
• National rank: #4814
• State rank: #11 of 270 in OK

Livability — Edmond

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2383

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Edmond, OK
• City population: 177,083
• Population (ZIP): 2,945

Population outlook (Oklahoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 911,875 people
• By 2030: 982,413 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,130,468 · +24.0%
• By 2050: 1,288,422 · +41.3%
• By 2075: 1,711,482 · +87.7%
• By 2100: 2,088,448 · +129.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oklahoma

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.1pp toward D · 2008: -16.8pp · 2024: -1.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.7 2020: R+1.1 2016: R+10.5 2012: R+16.7 2008: R+16.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.99%
• Current HPI: 336.6015
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B