5637 Appaloosa Cir · Morrow, OH 45152

$405,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,790 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2002 9,222 sqft lot Est $438k · 8% under $27/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Loaded w/extras! Widened driveway, finshd W/O bsmnt w/wet bar, half ba & tons of storage. 4'bumpout in fmly rm, deck & patio ovrlooking xtra lrg wooded lot near cmmnty playground. W/I walking dist of Loveland biketrail & dogprk. Lease Avlbl

Key facts

• 9,222 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2002

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA with an annual fee of $325 covering the play area

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas; Gas water heater; Electric service (standard)
• Home design: Traditional single-family home; Three or more levels; Poured foundation
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered deck/patio; Deck; Patio; Fire pit; Hot tub; Invisible fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen features pantry and marble/granite/ slate countertops
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom about 14 x 21 (level 2); Bedroom 2 about 11 x 12 (level 2); Bedroom 3 about 11 x 12 (level 2); Bedroom 4 about 12 x 15 (level 2)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring in the living/great room
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 2 half bathrooms; A bathroom is located on the first level (partial)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 12 total rooms; Full walkout basement; 4-season room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room about 11 x 12 (basement)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $405k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($24k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $405k).
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 4.0% in Morrow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#266 in OH, #4,231 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Little Miami Local (rural): math 67% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #140 of 656 in OH (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Little Miami Primary School (math 76% / reading 65%, grade A-, #376 of 1,584 statewide, top 24%, 855 students, 18% FRL); Little Miami Middle School (math 67% / reading 72%, grade A, #143 of 654 statewide, top 23%, 1,279 students, 16% FRL); Little Miami High School (math 52% / reading 81%, grade B, #150 of 781 statewide, top 20%, 1,445 students, 14% FRL) — zoned schools at 16% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,224 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (474 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,995/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($120k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Warren County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $113k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $405k implies a 161% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $405,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.37%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $438,030
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5185 Appaloosa Cir	0.11mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,825 (+1%)	10mo	$380,000	$135	76
5320 Man O War Dr	0.32mi	4/2.5	2,882 (+3%)	9mo	$380,000	$132	72
5209 Man O War Dr	0.17mi	4/3.0	2,518 (-10%)	8mo	$430,000	$171	67
2727 Unbridled Way	0.45mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,769 (-1%)	9mo	$440,000	$159	61
2657 Affirmed Dr	0.36mi	4/2.5	2,559 (-8%)	12mo	$403,000	$157	60
2681 Affirmed Dr	0.35mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,559 (-8%)	7mo	$395,000	$154	59
2854 Alysheba Ct	0.40mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,560 (-8%)	2mo	$420,000	$164	59
5441 Hopewell Valley Dr	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,632 (-6%)	1mo	$444,000	$169	57
5781 Montrose Ct	0.62mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,826 (+1%)	10mo	$395,000	$140	52
5976 Outlook Ct	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,423 (-13%)	2mo	$515,000	$213	45
5783 Classicway Blvd	0.63mi	4/3.5	3,195 (+14%)	0mo	$467,000	$146	42
2843 Alysheba Ct	0.41mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,148 (+13%)	11mo	$440,000	$140	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $63,021
• Equity at exit: $60,387

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $220,643
• Equity at exit: $35,017

Cash invested: $113,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45152

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Active inventory: 127
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,995 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,124
• Tax from tax record: −$397 /mo · $4,766/yr
• Insurance: −$169
• HOA: −$27
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,259
• Net cashflow: $2,019

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,439

Max offer price $405,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,249	-5% $2,134	+0% $2,019	+5% $1,905	+10% $1,790
Rent	-10% $1,546	-5% $1,782	+0% $2,019	+5% $2,256	+10% $2,493
Rate	-1.0pp $2,223	-0.5pp $2,122	base $2,019	+0.5pp $1,914	+1.0pp $1,808

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $101,250
• Closing costs: $12,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5738 Azra Ct Morrow, OH	4.0	2.5	2600	$5,995	$2.31	45d	1	0.61mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $27 · $324/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $405,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $405,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $405,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $405,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,766 · $397/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,542 · $462/mo
• Expected delta: +$776/yr (+$65/mo · 16.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $71,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,686
• − Property taxes: −$4,766
• − Insurance: −$2,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,755
• − Management: −$5,755
• − HOA: −$324
• − Depreciation: −$11,782
• Taxable income: $18,846
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,523
• After-tax cash flow: $19,708/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Little Miami Local
• NCES district ID: 3905044
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $74,949
• Composite: 60.5/100
• National rank: #844
• State rank: #140 of 656 in OH

Livability — Morrow

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #266
• US rank: #4231

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Warren · 227,646 people
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 13,577
• Household income: $120,340
• Rent vs Own: 11.8% rent · 88.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 5.6

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,603 people
• By 2030: 259,345 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 277,666 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 289,599 · +16.5%
• By 2075: 311,681 · +25.4%
• By 2100: 302,738 · +21.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.5) · D 33.8% · R 65.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: -36.1pp · 2024: -31.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.5 2020: R+30.8 2016: R+37.6 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.41%
• Current HPI: 239.7828
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+145.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $405,000 Cincy MLS
• 2016-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2011-10-31 Sold (MLS) $150,000 Cincy MLS
• 2011-07-07 Listing Removed — Cincy MLS
• 2011-07-07 Listed $159,000 Cincy MLS
• 2011-03-11 Listed $164,900 Cincy MLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,766 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.