365 Morgan Creek Rd · Pendergrass, GA 30567

$391,490

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,479 sqft · Other · 18 Days on market

Built 2026 0.35 ac lot $158/sqft · at area comps Est $390k · at est. $69/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brand new, energy-efficient home available by Jun 2026! Outfit the Dakota's main-level flex space as a home office and skip your commute. In the kitchen, the island overlooks the open living space. Upstairs, sip coffee from your own private sitting room in the primary suite. New energy-efficient move-in ready homes in Pendergrass include a washer, dryer, fridge, and whole home blinds, plus they can be closing-ready in 60 days or less-guaranteed. (You'll be reimbursed up to $5,000 in expenses related to delays we cause.) Have it all: Relax in your primary bedroom, enjoy your back patio, and experience the community pool and cabana, all with easy access to I-85 and nearby Lake Lanier. Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health, real comfort and peace of mind.

Key facts

• Private sitting room
• Community pool
• Easy access to i-85

Tags

• ENERGY EFFICIENT HOME
• MAIN LEVEL FLEX SPACE
• PRIVATE SITTING ROOM
• COMMUNITY POOL
• BACK PATIO
• EASY ACCESS TO I-85

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $391k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-514 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $301k (23.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (40.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (40.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.6% in Pendergrass — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#174 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Jackson County (rural): math 38% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #50 of 174 in GA (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Jackson Elementary School (math 36% / reading 30%, grade F, #567 of 1,228 statewide, top 47%, 687 students, 43% FRL); West Jackson Middle School (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #135 of 470 statewide, top 29%, 1,502 students, 28% FRL); Jackson County High School (math 20% / reading 17%, grade F, #254 of 424 statewide, top 61%, 1,833 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,167 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (59 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $39k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jackson County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$67k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($386k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $234,260 (40.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.63%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 13.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $389,699
• List price: $391,490
• Delta: 0.46%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $180,296
• Equity at exit: $352,685

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.08×
• Total profit: $556,347
• Equity at exit: $760,579

Cash invested: $109,617 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30567

• Home prices YoY: 14.7%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 13.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,343 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,053
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $956/yr
• Insurance: −$163
• HOA: −$69
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $-514

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,993

Max offer price $300,665

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-293	-5% $-403	+0% $-514	+5% $-625	+10% $-736
Rent	-10% $-699	-5% $-607	+0% $-514	+5% $-422	+10% $-329
Rate	-1.0pp $-317	-0.5pp $-415	base $-514	+0.5pp $-616	+1.0pp $-719

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,872
• Closing costs: $11,745
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
250 Sope Creek Cir Pendergrass, GA	4.0	3.0	2479	$2,200	$0.89	45d	1	0.13mi
653 Glenn Gee Rd Pendergrass, GA	3.0	2.5	2529	$2,350	$0.93	23d	1	0.48mi
63 Steel Trl Pendergrass, GA	4.0	2.5	2156	$2,160	$1.00	45d	1	0.64mi
112 Russell Rd Pendergrass, GA	5.0	3.0	2933	$2,600	$0.89	23d	1	0.67mi
59 Constitution Ave Pendergrass, GA	3.0	3.5	2265	$2,200	$0.97	23d	1	0.70mi
15 Constitution Ave Pendergrass, GA	3.0	3.5	2265	$2,250	$0.99	23d	1	0.70mi
306 Walnut Grove Way Pendergrass, GA	5.0	3.0	2449	$2,400	$0.98	45d	1	0.75mi
25 Blue River Ct Pendergrass, GA	4.0	2.5	1928	$1,899	$0.98	45d	1	0.76mi
274 Walnut Grove Way Pendergrass, GA	5.0	3.0	2449	$2,300	$0.94	45d	1	0.76mi
100 Mission Blvd Pendergrass, GA	3.0	2.5	1831	$1,950	$1.06	15d	1	0.79mi
107 Wynn Way Pendergrass, GA	4.0	2.5	1928	$2,300	$1.19	23d	1	0.82mi
916 Independence Ave Pendergrass, GA	4.0	2.5	1904	$1,995	$1.05	15d	1	1.02mi
929 Independence Ave Pendergrass, GA	4.0	2.5	2000	$1,901	$0.95	15d	1	1.03mi
960 Walnut Creek Cir Pendergrass, GA	4.0	2.5	2000	$1,850	$0.93	23d	1	1.16mi
960 Walnut Creek Cir Pendergrass, GA	4.0	2.5	2000	$1,850	$0.93	45d	1	1.16mi
732 Independence Ave Pendergrass, GA	4.0	2.5	1829	$1,910	$1.04	15d	1	1.21mi
731 Independence Ave Pendergrass, GA	3.0	2.0	1615	$1,799	$1.11	45d	1	1.21mi
706 Independence Ave Pendergrass, GA	4.0	2.5	1829	$1,900	$1.04	45d	1	1.27mi
11 Darling Ln Pendergrass, GA	4.0	2.5	1837	$1,900	$1.03	45d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $69 · $828/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Under Contract 850-char remark

   Show marketing remark (856 chars)

   Brand new, energy-efficient home available by Jun 2026! Outfit the Dakota's main-level flex space as a home office and skip your commute. In the kitchen, the island overlooks the open living space. Upstairs, sip coffee from your own private sitting room in the primary suite. New energy-efficient move-in ready homes in Pendergrass include a washer, dryer, fridge, and whole home blinds, plus they can be closing-ready in 60 days or less—guaranteed. (You'll be reimbursed up to $5,000 in expenses related to delays we cause.) Have it all: Relax in your primary bedroom, enjoy your back patio, and experience the community pool and cabana, all with easy access to I-85 and nearby Lake Lanier. Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health, real comfort and peace of mind.

2. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 856-char remark

   Show marketing remark (856 chars)

   Brand new, energy-efficient home available by Jun 2026! Outfit the Dakota's main-level flex space as a home office and skip your commute. In the kitchen, the island overlooks the open living space. Upstairs, sip coffee from your own private sitting room in the primary suite. New energy-efficient move-in ready homes in Pendergrass include a washer, dryer, fridge, and whole home blinds, plus they can be closing-ready in 60 days or less—guaranteed. (You'll be reimbursed up to $5,000 in expenses related to delays we cause.) Have it all: Relax in your primary bedroom, enjoy your back patio, and experience the community pool and cabana, all with easy access to I-85 and nearby Lake Lanier. Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health, real comfort and peace of mind.

3. 2026-04-22
   price $391,490 850-char remark

   Show marketing remark (856 chars)

   Brand new, energy-efficient home available by Jun 2026! Outfit the Dakota's main-level flex space as a home office and skip your commute. In the kitchen, the island overlooks the open living space. Upstairs, sip coffee from your own private sitting room in the primary suite. New energy-efficient move-in ready homes in Pendergrass include a washer, dryer, fridge, and whole home blinds, plus they can be closing-ready in 60 days or less—guaranteed. (You'll be reimbursed up to $5,000 in expenses related to delays we cause.) Have it all: Relax in your primary bedroom, enjoy your back patio, and experience the community pool and cabana, all with easy access to I-85 and nearby Lake Lanier. Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health, real comfort and peace of mind.

4. 2026-04-22
   price $391,490 856-char remark

   Show marketing remark (856 chars)

   Brand new, energy-efficient home available by Jun 2026! Outfit the Dakota's main-level flex space as a home office and skip your commute. In the kitchen, the island overlooks the open living space. Upstairs, sip coffee from your own private sitting room in the primary suite. New energy-efficient move-in ready homes in Pendergrass include a washer, dryer, fridge, and whole home blinds, plus they can be closing-ready in 60 days or less—guaranteed. (You'll be reimbursed up to $5,000 in expenses related to delays we cause.) Have it all: Relax in your primary bedroom, enjoy your back patio, and experience the community pool and cabana, all with easy access to I-85 and nearby Lake Lanier. Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health, real comfort and peace of mind.

5. 2026-04-15
   listed $431,480 New 850-char remark

   Show marketing remark (856 chars)

   Brand new, energy-efficient home available by Jun 2026! Outfit the Dakota's main-level flex space as a home office and skip your commute. In the kitchen, the island overlooks the open living space. Upstairs, sip coffee from your own private sitting room in the primary suite. New energy-efficient move-in ready homes in Pendergrass include a washer, dryer, fridge, and whole home blinds, plus they can be closing-ready in 60 days or less—guaranteed. (You'll be reimbursed up to $5,000 in expenses related to delays we cause.) Have it all: Relax in your primary bedroom, enjoy your back patio, and experience the community pool and cabana, all with easy access to I-85 and nearby Lake Lanier. Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health, real comfort and peace of mind.

6. 2026-04-15
   listed $431,480 Active 856-char remark

   Show marketing remark (856 chars)

   Brand new, energy-efficient home available by Jun 2026! Outfit the Dakota's main-level flex space as a home office and skip your commute. In the kitchen, the island overlooks the open living space. Upstairs, sip coffee from your own private sitting room in the primary suite. New energy-efficient move-in ready homes in Pendergrass include a washer, dryer, fridge, and whole home blinds, plus they can be closing-ready in 60 days or less—guaranteed. (You'll be reimbursed up to $5,000 in expenses related to delays we cause.) Have it all: Relax in your primary bedroom, enjoy your back patio, and experience the community pool and cabana, all with easy access to I-85 and nearby Lake Lanier. Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health, real comfort and peace of mind.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $956 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,602 · $300/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,646/yr (+$220/mo · 276.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,111
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,930
• − Property taxes: −$956
• − Insurance: −$1,957
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,249
• − Management: −$2,249
• − HOA: −$828
• − Depreciation: −$11,389
• Taxable loss: −$13,446
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,227
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,943/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson County
• NCES district ID: 1302940
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,773
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5566
• State rank: #50 of 174 in GA

Livability — Pendergrass

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #174
• US rank: #10962

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pendergrass, GA
• County: Jackson County · 50,436 people
• City population: 5,487
• Metro: Jefferson, GA
• Population (ZIP): 5,487
• Household income: $97,181
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 115.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,403 people
• By 2030: 70,771 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 75,050 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 78,022 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 82,646 · +20.8%
• By 2100: 80,701 · +18.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 8% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.1) · D 22.2% · R 77.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.8pp no change · 2008: -55.9pp · 2024: -55.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.1 2020: R+58.0 2016: R+63.9 2012: R+62.9 2008: R+55.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.83%
• Current HPI: 364.4902
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Jefferson, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-9.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-05-04 Pending — FMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $391,490 GAMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $391,490 FMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $431,480 FMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $431,480 GAMLS