2619 E Bard Rd · Twin Lake, MI 49445

$325,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,316 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1968 8.43 ac lot $247/sqft · 79% above area Est $376k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

More photos coming after the estate sale. Sitting on over 8 beautiful acres in Reeths-Puffer School District, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers endless potential. The property features Ribe Creek frontage, a large barn, a greenhouse, fruit trees, and an area of raised garden beds-perfect for anyone dreaming of hobby farming, gardening, and country living. While the bushes and gardens have become overgrown over the years, the landscape is ready to be restored to its former beauty and charm. The main level offers functional living space with main level laundry, a three season room and an overall great layout. The finished walk-out lower level includes a second kitchen, dining area, family room with fireplace, bathroom, and 2 non-conforming bedrooms-ideal for a separate living area, guests, or extra room to spread out. There's a 2-stall attached garage plus plenty of outdoor space for recreation and storage. Buyer and buyers agent to verify all information. Creek frontage measured on GIS

Key facts

• 8.43 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1968

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Well water; Natural gas connected
• Home design: Ranch-style single family residence; Living area approximately 2,734; Built in 1968; Shingle roof
• Construction: Brick construction; Built in 1968
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Barn(s) and greenhouse on the property; Waterfront on Ribe Creek; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Two kitchens (one 13 x 9.75, another 14.5 x 9); Oven, Range, Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 2 (13 x 11); Bedroom 3 (11.5 x 11); Two additional non-conforming bedrooms (16 x 9.5 and 14 x 8.5)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Primary bathroom (15 x 11); Second bathroom (7.5 x 4)
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating
• Interior features: Fireplace; Total of 7 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room (9 x 5); Washer and Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-515 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (28.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (39.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (39.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#307 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Reeths-Puffer Schools (suburban): math 28% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #254 of 540 in MI (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Twin Lake School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #685 of 1,397 statewide, top 51%, 212 students, 57% FRL); Reethspuffer Middle School (math 29% / reading 54%, grade F, #192 of 493 statewide, top 39%, 542 students, 55% FRL); Reethspuffer High School (math 25% / reading 54%, grade F, #304 of 713 statewide, top 46%, 1,177 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 40% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 438 units permitted in Muskegon County in 2024 (115 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Muskegon County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $325k implies a 287% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $195,842 (39.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.80%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $376,366
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: -13.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3986 Holton Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-3%)	4mo	$205,000	$160	66
3701 Holton Rd	0.45mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,256 (-5%)	15mo	$191,000	$152	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $144,092
• Equity at exit: $292,786

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.94×
• Total profit: $449,977
• Equity at exit: $631,404

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49445

• Home prices YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 13.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,958 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$223 /mo · $2,674/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $-515

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,611

Max offer price $233,945

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-331	-5% $-423	+0% $-515	+5% $-607	+10% $-699
Rent	-10% $-670	-5% $-593	+0% $-515	+5% $-438	+10% $-361
Rate	-1.0pp $-352	-0.5pp $-433	base $-515	+0.5pp $-600	+1.0pp $-685

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $325,000 Pending 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $325,000 Active 19 DOM

   Show marketing remark (1000 chars)

   More photos coming after the estate sale. Sitting on over 8 beautiful acres in Reeths-Puffer School District, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers endless potential. The property features Ribe Creek frontage, a large barn, a greenhouse, fruit trees, and an area of raised garden beds-perfect for anyone dreaming of hobby farming, gardening, and country living. While the bushes and gardens have become overgrown over the years, the landscape is ready to be restored to its former beauty and charm. The main level offers functional living space with main level laundry, a three season room and an overall great layout. The finished walk-out lower level includes a second kitchen, dining area, family room with fireplace, bathroom, and 2 non-conforming bedrooms-ideal for a separate living area, guests, or extra room to spread out. There's a 2-stall attached garage plus plenty of outdoor space for recreation and storage. Buyer and buyers agent to verify all information. Creek frontage measured on GIS

3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $325,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $350,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $350,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $350,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $350,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-05-15
    historical $350,000 1000-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1000 chars)

    More photos coming after the estate sale. Sitting on over 8 beautiful acres in Reeths-Puffer School District, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers endless potential. The property features Ribe Creek frontage, a large barn, a greenhouse, fruit trees, and an area of raised garden beds-perfect for anyone dreaming of hobby farming, gardening, and country living. While the bushes and gardens have become overgrown over the years, the landscape is ready to be restored to its former beauty and charm. The main level offers functional living space with main level laundry, a three season room and an overall great layout. The finished walk-out lower level includes a second kitchen, dining area, family room with fireplace, bathroom, and 2 non-conforming bedrooms-ideal for a separate living area, guests, or extra room to spread out. There's a 2-stall attached garage plus plenty of outdoor space for recreation and storage. Buyer and buyers agent to verify all information. Creek frontage measured on GIS

11. 2026-05-15
    historical $350,000

    Show marketing remark (1000 chars)

    More photos coming after the estate sale. Sitting on over 8 beautiful acres in Reeths-Puffer School District, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers endless potential. The property features Ribe Creek frontage, a large barn, a greenhouse, fruit trees, and an area of raised garden beds-perfect for anyone dreaming of hobby farming, gardening, and country living. While the bushes and gardens have become overgrown over the years, the landscape is ready to be restored to its former beauty and charm. The main level offers functional living space with main level laundry, a three season room and an overall great layout. The finished walk-out lower level includes a second kitchen, dining area, family room with fireplace, bathroom, and 2 non-conforming bedrooms-ideal for a separate living area, guests, or extra room to spread out. There's a 2-stall attached garage plus plenty of outdoor space for recreation and storage. Buyer and buyers agent to verify all information. Creek frontage measured on GIS

12. 1993-07-30
    soldstatus $83,999

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,674 · $223/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,840 · $320/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,165/yr (+$97/mo · 43.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,501
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$2,674
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,880
• − Management: −$1,880
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$12,218
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,932
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,253/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Reeths-Puffer Schools
• NCES district ID: 2629540
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,223
• Composite: 31.62/100
• National rank: #5942
• State rank: #254 of 540 in MI

Livability — Twin Lake

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #7611

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 21,090

Population outlook (Muskegon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 174,032 people
• By 2030: 173,365 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 168,877 · -3.0%
• By 2050: 160,306 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 134,426 · -22.8%
• By 2100: 98,836 · -43.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 10% Romanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Muskegon

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.4% · R 50.2% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.1pp toward R · 2008: 29.3pp · 2024: -1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.8 2020: D+0.6 2016: D+0.9 2012: D+17.8 2008: D+29.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 40.82%
• Current HPI: 605.31
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+286.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-10 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-06-10 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $325,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $325,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $325,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-22 Listed $350,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-22 Listed $350,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-22 Listed $350,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-15 Coming Soon $350,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-15 Coming Soon $350,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 1993-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $83,999 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,674 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.