4944 Alexa Rd · Brownsville, TX 78521

$175,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,124 sqft · Townhouse · 230 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 4,526 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 2-story townhome featuring 2 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, and 1,124 sqft of comfortable living space. Located in a secure gated community with security cameras at the entrance. Enjoy a spacious backyard—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Just 5 minutes from the airport and conveniently close to HEB, Brownsville Public Library, and Morning Side Park. Situated in the Southmost area with easy access to local amenities.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Security cameras
• Spacious backyard

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• SECURITY CAMERAS
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• CLOSE TO HEB
• CLOSE TO MORNING SIDE PARK
• EASY ACCESS TO LOCAL AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $175k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-73 ($-875/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#62 in TX, #2,311 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities D, crime D-.
• Brownsville ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #710 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 365 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 230 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,861 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 230 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.78%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-25,375
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $6,618
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78521

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 365
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,439 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $-73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $164,454

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4995 Alexa Rd Unit B Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1063	$1,750	$1.65	43d	1	0.06mi
4711 Morningside Rd Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1288	$1,450	$1.13	21d	1	0.31mi
1570 Los Alamos St Unit A Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,700	$1.33	13d	1	0.44mi
1898 Morningside Rd Unit 4 Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.0	756	$800	$1.06	43d	1	0.48mi
2150 Minnesota Ave Brownsville, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	782	$990	$1.27	43d	1	0.51mi
5824 Southmost Rd Unit 132 Brownsville, TX	3.0	1.5	1100	$995	$0.90	43d	1	0.56mi
1010 Apollo Ave Unit 13 Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$795	$0.99	43d	1	0.86mi
1919 Taxco Dr Brownsville, TX	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,300	$1.27	21d	1	0.91mi
4318 Waco Rd Unit 1 Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,400	$0.97	43d	1	1.07mi
2954 Impala Dr Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	43d	1	1.29mi
765 Billy Mitchell Blvd Ste 11 Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$825	$1.03	21d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 230 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 229 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 228 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 227 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 225 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 224 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 222 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 221 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 220 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 219 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 216 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 215 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 214 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 213 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 212 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 211 DOM
17. 2025-12-09
    price $175,000 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    Charming 2-story townhome featuring 2 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, and 1,124 sqft of comfortable living space. Located in a secure gated community with security cameras at the entrance. Enjoy a spacious backyard—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Just 5 minutes from the airport and conveniently close to HEB, Brownsville Public Library, and Morning Side Park. Situated in the Southmost area with easy access to local amenities.

18. 2025-12-03
    status Active 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    Charming 2-story townhome featuring 2 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, and 1,124 sqft of comfortable living space. Located in a secure gated community with security cameras at the entrance. Enjoy a spacious backyard—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Just 5 minutes from the airport and conveniently close to HEB, Brownsville Public Library, and Morning Side Park. Situated in the Southmost area with easy access to local amenities.

19. 2025-11-24
    historical 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    Charming 2-story townhome featuring 2 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, and 1,124 sqft of comfortable living space. Located in a secure gated community with security cameras at the entrance. Enjoy a spacious backyard—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Just 5 minutes from the airport and conveniently close to HEB, Brownsville Public Library, and Morning Side Park. Situated in the Southmost area with easy access to local amenities.

20. 2025-10-22
    listed $176,500 Active 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    Charming 2-story townhome featuring 2 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, and 1,124 sqft of comfortable living space. Located in a secure gated community with security cameras at the entrance. Enjoy a spacious backyard—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Just 5 minutes from the airport and conveniently close to HEB, Brownsville Public Library, and Morning Side Park. Situated in the Southmost area with easy access to local amenities.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,263
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,625
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,381
• − Management: −$1,381
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$3,892
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$934
• After-tax cash flow: $60/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming 2-story townhome is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good return on investment with minimal updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and reduce energy costs, attracting more buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and reduce energy costs, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811680
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $30,490
• Composite: 21.8/100
• National rank: #8249
• State rank: #710 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brownsville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #2311

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brownsville, TX
• County: Cameron County · 310,734 people
• City population: 212,132
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 87,380
• Household income: $44,509
• Rent vs Own: 39.7% rent · 60.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2682.0

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 45% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 12% English-only · Spanish 88%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.45%
• Current HPI: 232.1072
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.19%
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $175,000 RGVMLS
• 2025-12-03 Relisted — RGVMLS
• 2025-11-24 Delisted — RGVMLS
• 2025-10-22 Listed $176,500 RGVMLS