Horizon Plan · Magnolia, TX 77354

$247,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,520 sqft · SingleFamily · 246 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Bedrooms | 2 Bathrooms | Approx. 1,520 Sq. Ft. Thoughtfully arranged and beautifully functional, the Horizon offers single-story living designed to feel open, connected, and easy to enjoy. From the foyer, the home opens into a bright central living space where the kitchen, dining area, and great room come together seamlessly. The kitchen features generous counter space, ample cabinetry, and an island for additional prep and gathering space. Clear sightlines across the main living areas make it easy to stay connected, while a covered patio extends the living space outdoors and can be expanded for even more room to relax or entertain. A tucked-away tech space near the entry adds practical flexibility, ideal for remote work, homework, or organization. The primary suite, privately positioned at the rear of the home, provides a peaceful retreat with a spacious bedroom, a well-appointed bath, and a large walk-in closet. Buyers may personalize the suite with options such as a shower and tub combination, an enlarged shower with seat, or additional bath cabinetry. Two secondary bedrooms are centrally located near a shared full bath, offering comfortable and flexible space for family members, guests, or hobbies. A centrally placed laundry room enhances everyday convenience and keeps household routines running smoothly. With its light-filled rooms, efficient layout, and thoughtful options, the Horizon delivers a home that feels comfortable, functional, and perfectly suited to modern l

Key facts

• Private office
• Walk-in closet
• Enlarged shower

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• PRIVATE OFFICE
• GREAT ROOM
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• ENLARGED SHOWER
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $247,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $264,256.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $248k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-192 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 246 days — a 12% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $206,881 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 246 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.11%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $264,256
• List price: $247,990
• Delta: -6.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13082 Sarah Springs Way	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,518 (-0%)	5mo	$244,990	$161	87
40635 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,479 (-3%)	6mo	$267,990	$181	86
12975 Daniel Springs Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,479 (-3%)	4mo	$267,990	$181	86
40723 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,518 (-0%)	6mo	$252,990	$167	85
12759 Dina Springs Ln	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,597 (+5%)	1mo	$268,990	$168	85
13070 Sarah Springs Way	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,518 (-0%)	8mo	$239,990	$158	84
12739 Dina Springs Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,606 (+6%)	6mo	$267,990	$167	82
40769 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,518 (-0%)	11mo	$239,990	$158	79
40608 Pessi Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,605 (+6%)	8mo	$259,990	$162	74
40494 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,640 (+8%)	6mo	$269,000	$164	71
40784 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,598 (+5%)	8mo	$264,990	$166	66
40656 Pessi Rd	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,676 (+10%)	8mo	$249,990	$149	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $126,300
• Equity at exit: $238,063

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.02×
• Total profit: $371,741
• Equity at exit: $513,392

Cash invested: $73,992 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,069 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,386
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$330 /mo · $3,964/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $-192

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,312

Max offer price $236,494

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,064
• Closing costs: $7,928
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40700 Pessi Rd Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1240	$2,100	$1.69	43d	1	0.24mi
4255 Magnolia Village Dr Unit 2228 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1131	$1,792	$1.58	2d	1	1.11mi
4255 Magnolia Village Dr Unit 4292 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1131	$1,824	$1.61	10d	1	1.11mi
4225 Magnolia Village Dr Magnolia, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	994	$1,992	$2.00	1d	31	1.16mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $247,990 Active 246 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $247,990 Active 245 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $247,990 Active 244 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $247,990 Active 243 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $247,990 Active 241 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $247,990 Active 237 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $247,990 Active 236 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $247,990 Active 235 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $247,990 Active 232 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $247,990 Active 231 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $247,990 Active 230 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $237,990 Active 229 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $237,990 Active 228 DOM
14. 2026-03-22
    price $237,990 1500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    3 Bedrooms | 2 Bathrooms | Approx. 1,520 Sq. Ft. Thoughtfully arranged and beautifully functional, the Horizon offers single-story living designed to feel open, connected, and easy to enjoy. From the foyer, the home opens into a bright central living space where the kitchen, dining area, and great room come together seamlessly. The kitchen features generous counter space, ample cabinetry, and an island for additional prep and gathering space. Clear sightlines across the main living areas make it easy to stay connected, while a covered patio extends the living space outdoors and can be expanded for even more room to relax or entertain. A tucked-away tech space near the entry adds practical flexibility, ideal for remote work, homework, or organization. The primary suite, privately positioned at the rear of the home, provides a peaceful retreat with a spacious bedroom, a well-appointed bath, and a large walk-in closet. Buyers may personalize the suite with options such as a shower and tub combination, an enlarged shower with seat, or additional bath cabinetry. Two secondary bedrooms are centrally located near a shared full bath, offering comfortable and flexible space for family members, guests, or hobbies. A centrally placed laundry room enhances everyday convenience and keeps household routines running smoothly. With its light-filled rooms, efficient layout, and thoughtful options, the Horizon delivers a home that feels comfortable, functional, and perfectly suited to modern l

15. 2026-01-31
    price $247,990 1500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    3 Bedrooms | 2 Bathrooms | Approx. 1,520 Sq. Ft. Thoughtfully arranged and beautifully functional, the Horizon offers single-story living designed to feel open, connected, and easy to enjoy. From the foyer, the home opens into a bright central living space where the kitchen, dining area, and great room come together seamlessly. The kitchen features generous counter space, ample cabinetry, and an island for additional prep and gathering space. Clear sightlines across the main living areas make it easy to stay connected, while a covered patio extends the living space outdoors and can be expanded for even more room to relax or entertain. A tucked-away tech space near the entry adds practical flexibility, ideal for remote work, homework, or organization. The primary suite, privately positioned at the rear of the home, provides a peaceful retreat with a spacious bedroom, a well-appointed bath, and a large walk-in closet. Buyers may personalize the suite with options such as a shower and tub combination, an enlarged shower with seat, or additional bath cabinetry. Two secondary bedrooms are centrally located near a shared full bath, offering comfortable and flexible space for family members, guests, or hobbies. A centrally placed laundry room enhances everyday convenience and keeps household routines running smoothly. With its light-filled rooms, efficient layout, and thoughtful options, the Horizon delivers a home that feels comfortable, functional, and perfectly suited to modern l

16. 2026-01-09
    price $245,990 1500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    3 Bedrooms | 2 Bathrooms | Approx. 1,520 Sq. Ft. Thoughtfully arranged and beautifully functional, the Horizon offers single-story living designed to feel open, connected, and easy to enjoy. From the foyer, the home opens into a bright central living space where the kitchen, dining area, and great room come together seamlessly. The kitchen features generous counter space, ample cabinetry, and an island for additional prep and gathering space. Clear sightlines across the main living areas make it easy to stay connected, while a covered patio extends the living space outdoors and can be expanded for even more room to relax or entertain. A tucked-away tech space near the entry adds practical flexibility, ideal for remote work, homework, or organization. The primary suite, privately positioned at the rear of the home, provides a peaceful retreat with a spacious bedroom, a well-appointed bath, and a large walk-in closet. Buyers may personalize the suite with options such as a shower and tub combination, an enlarged shower with seat, or additional bath cabinetry. Two secondary bedrooms are centrally located near a shared full bath, offering comfortable and flexible space for family members, guests, or hobbies. A centrally placed laundry room enhances everyday convenience and keeps household routines running smoothly. With its light-filled rooms, efficient layout, and thoughtful options, the Horizon delivers a home that feels comfortable, functional, and perfectly suited to modern l

17. 2025-11-04
    price $242,990 1500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    3 Bedrooms | 2 Bathrooms | Approx. 1,520 Sq. Ft. Thoughtfully arranged and beautifully functional, the Horizon offers single-story living designed to feel open, connected, and easy to enjoy. From the foyer, the home opens into a bright central living space where the kitchen, dining area, and great room come together seamlessly. The kitchen features generous counter space, ample cabinetry, and an island for additional prep and gathering space. Clear sightlines across the main living areas make it easy to stay connected, while a covered patio extends the living space outdoors and can be expanded for even more room to relax or entertain. A tucked-away tech space near the entry adds practical flexibility, ideal for remote work, homework, or organization. The primary suite, privately positioned at the rear of the home, provides a peaceful retreat with a spacious bedroom, a well-appointed bath, and a large walk-in closet. Buyers may personalize the suite with options such as a shower and tub combination, an enlarged shower with seat, or additional bath cabinetry. Two secondary bedrooms are centrally located near a shared full bath, offering comfortable and flexible space for family members, guests, or hobbies. A centrally placed laundry room enhances everyday convenience and keeps household routines running smoothly. With its light-filled rooms, efficient layout, and thoughtful options, the Horizon delivers a home that feels comfortable, functional, and perfectly suited to modern l

18. 2025-10-15
    listed $249,990 Active 1500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    3 Bedrooms | 2 Bathrooms | Approx. 1,520 Sq. Ft. Thoughtfully arranged and beautifully functional, the Horizon offers single-story living designed to feel open, connected, and easy to enjoy. From the foyer, the home opens into a bright central living space where the kitchen, dining area, and great room come together seamlessly. The kitchen features generous counter space, ample cabinetry, and an island for additional prep and gathering space. Clear sightlines across the main living areas make it easy to stay connected, while a covered patio extends the living space outdoors and can be expanded for even more room to relax or entertain. A tucked-away tech space near the entry adds practical flexibility, ideal for remote work, homework, or organization. The primary suite, privately positioned at the rear of the home, provides a peaceful retreat with a spacious bedroom, a well-appointed bath, and a large walk-in closet. Buyers may personalize the suite with options such as a shower and tub combination, an enlarged shower with seat, or additional bath cabinetry. Two secondary bedrooms are centrally located near a shared full bath, offering comfortable and flexible space for family members, guests, or hobbies. A centrally placed laundry room enhances everyday convenience and keeps household routines running smoothly. With its light-filled rooms, efficient layout, and thoughtful options, the Horizon delivers a home that feels comfortable, functional, and perfectly suited to modern l

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,826
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,802
• − Property taxes: −$3,964
• − Insurance: −$1,321
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,986
• − Management: −$1,986
• − Depreciation: −$7,687
• Taxable loss: −$6,921
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,661
• After-tax cash flow: $-641/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both New kitchen backsplash — Enhances kitchen functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New kitchen backsplash — Enhances kitchen functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $237,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $247,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $245,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $242,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-15 Listed $249,990 Zillow