Horizon Plan · Magnolia, TX 77354

$237,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,520 sqft · SingleFamily · 377 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 5% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Bedrooms | 2 Bathrooms | Approx. 1,520 Sq. Ft. Thoughtfully arranged and beautifully functional, the Horizon offers single-story living designed to feel open, connected, and easy to enjoy. From the foyer, the home opens into a bright central living space where the kitchen, dining area, and great room come together seamlessly. The kitchen features generous counter space, ample cabinetry, and an island for additional prep and gathering space. Clear sightlines across the main living areas make it easy to stay connected, while a covered patio extends the living space outdoors and can be expanded for even more room to relax or entertain. A tucked-away tech space near the entry adds practical flexibility, ideal for remote work, homework, or organization. The primary suite, privately positioned at the rear of the home, provides a peaceful retreat with a spacious bedroom, a well-appointed bath, and a large walk-in closet. Buyers may personalize the suite with options such as a shower and tub combination, an enlarged shower with seat, or additional bath cabinetry. Two secondary bedrooms are centrally located near a shared full bath, offering comfortable and flexible space for family members, guests, or hobbies. A centrally placed laundry room enhances everyday convenience and keeps household routines running smoothly.

Key facts

• Private office
• Walk-in closet
• Enlarged shower

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• PRIVATE OFFICE
• GREAT ROOM
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• ENLARGED SHOWER
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $237,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $263,458.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $238k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-243 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (16.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.6% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia Parkway El (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 776 students, 45% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2366 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 94d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 377 days — a 12% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $199,725 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 377 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.95%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $263,458
• List price: $237,990
• Delta: -9.67%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40839 Mostyn Hill Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,510 (-1%)	3mo	$233,000	$154	93
13042 Sarah Springs Way	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,518 (-0%)	0mo	$247,990	$163	88
40776 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,518 (-0%)	4mo	$254,990	$168	84
12730 Dina Springs Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,605 (+6%)	3mo	$280,990	$175	84
13082 Sarah Springs Way	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,518 (-0%)	10mo	$244,990	$161	83
40635 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,479 (-3%)	11mo	$267,990	$181	82
12975 Daniel Springs Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,479 (-3%)	9mo	$267,990	$181	82
40723 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,518 (-0%)	10mo	$252,990	$167	81
12759 Dina Springs Ln	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,597 (+5%)	5mo	$268,990	$168	81
12408 Southern Trail Ct	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,606 (+6%)	2mo	$249,900	$156	74
40741 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-8%)	5mo	$242,135	$174	72
40494 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,640 (+8%)	10mo	$269,000	$164	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $122,802
• Equity at exit: $237,344

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.94×
• Total profit: $364,336
• Equity at exit: $511,840

Cash invested: $73,768 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 40 active · 8 under contract
• Months of supply: 24.0 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $268,990 ($174/sqft)
• Median days on market: 501 d
• This list price: 2% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -0.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 2366
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,997 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,382
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$329 /mo · $3,952/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $-243

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,305

Max offer price $228,314

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-61	-5% $-152	+0% $-243	+5% $-334	+10% $-425
Rent	-10% $-401	-5% $-322	+0% $-243	+5% $-164	+10% $-85
Rate	-1.0pp $-110	-0.5pp $-176	base $-243	+0.5pp $-311	+1.0pp $-381

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,864
• Closing costs: $7,904
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12650 Alta Vis Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.5	1837	$2,150	$1.17	123d	1	0.08mi
40700 Pessi Rd Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1240	$2,100	$1.69	10d	1	0.24mi
4319 Magnolia Village Dr Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1226	$1,254	$1.02	1d	1	1.05mi
4287 Magnolia Village Dr Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1226	$1,254	$1.02	10d	1	1.05mi
4255 Magnolia Village Dr Unit 2228 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1131	$1,675	$1.48	93d	1	1.11mi
4255 Magnolia Village Dr Unit 4292 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1131	$1,698	$1.50	115d	1	1.11mi
4255 Magnolia Village Dr Unit 2228 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1131	$1,749	$1.55	114d	1	1.11mi
4255 Magnolia Village Dr Unit 209 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1131	$1,788	$1.58	69d	1	1.11mi
4255 Magnolia Village Dr Apt 426 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1131	$1,800	$1.59	125d	1	1.11mi
4255 Magnolia Village Dr Apt 217 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1131	$1,714	$1.52	95d	1	1.11mi
4351 Magnolia Village Dr #233 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1226	$1,653	$1.35	0d	1	1.14mi
4255 Magnolia Village Dr Magnolia, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	994	$1,837	$1.85	1d	20	1.14mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $237,990 Active 377 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $237,990 Active 376 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $237,990 Active 375 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $237,990 Active 374 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $237,990 Active 373 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $237,990 Active 371 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $237,990 Active 370 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $237,990 Active 369 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $237,990 Active 368 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $237,990 Active 367 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $237,990 Active 366 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $237,990 Active 365 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $237,990 Active 364 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $237,990 Active 363 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $237,990 Active 362 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $237,990 Active 361 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $237,990 Active 360 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $237,990 Active 359 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $237,990 Active 358 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $237,990 Active 357 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $237,990 Active 356 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $237,990 Active 355 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $237,990 Active 354 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $237,990 Active 353 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $237,990 Active 352 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $237,990 Active 351 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $237,990 Active 350 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $237,990 Active 349 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $237,990 Active 348 DOM
30. 2026-09-26
    days on market $237,990 Active 346 DOM
31. 2026-09-25
    days on market $237,990 Active 345 DOM
32. 2026-09-24
    days on market $237,990 Active 344 DOM
33. 2026-09-23
    pricedays on market $237,990 Active 343 DOM
34. 2026-09-22
    days on market $247,990 Active 342 DOM
35. 2026-09-21
    days on market $247,990 Active 341 DOM
36. 2026-09-20
    days on market $247,990 Active 340 DOM
37. 2026-09-19
    days on market $247,990 Active 339 DOM
38. 2026-09-17
    days on market $247,990 Active 337 DOM
39. 2026-09-16
    days on market $247,990 Active 336 DOM
40. 2026-09-15
    days on market $247,990 Active 335 DOM
41. 2026-09-14
    days on market $247,990 Active 334 DOM
42. 2026-09-13
    days on market $247,990 Active 333 DOM
43. 2026-09-12
    days on market $247,990 Active 332 DOM
44. 2026-09-11
    days on market $247,990 Active 331 DOM
45. 2026-09-05
    days on market $247,990 Active 325 DOM
46. 2026-09-04
    days on market $247,990 Active 324 DOM
47. 2026-09-02
    days on market $247,990 Active 322 DOM
48. 2026-08-31
    days on market $247,990 Active 320 DOM
49. 2026-08-30
    days on market $247,990 Active 319 DOM
50. 2026-08-29
    days on market $247,990 Active 318 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,967
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,758
• − Property taxes: −$3,952
• − Insurance: −$1,317
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,917
• − Management: −$1,917
• − Depreciation: −$7,664
• Taxable loss: −$7,559
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,814
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,100/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New kitchen backsplash — Enhances kitchen functionality and aesthetics ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 47/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Magnolia Parkway El F TX #1,335/4,322 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Bear Branch J H D TX #479/1,662 Nat'l #4,622/14,009 High Magnolia H S C- TX #379/1,632 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

---

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $237,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $247,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $245,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $242,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-15 Listed $249,990 Zillow