21926 Vernazza Bend Dr · Hockley, TX 77447

$280,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,655 sqft · SingleFamily · 75 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 7,066 sqft lot 2-car garage $135/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this new D. R. Horton home in Cypress Green! Situated on a desirable corner homesite, this one-story floorplan offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,655 square feet of living space. The open-concept layout features an island kitchen with quartz countertops, abundant cabinetry, pantry, and seamless flow into the family and dining areas. The private primary suite includes an oversized shower and walk-in closet, while spacious secondary bedrooms provide flexibility for family or guests. Additional highlights include a sprinkler system, tankless water heater, energy-efficient construction, and Smart Home features.

Key facts

• Pantry
• Quartz countertops
• Island kitchen

Tags

• ISLAND KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• PANTRY
• OVERSIZED SHOWER
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $280,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $325,291.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-484 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 2407 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 83d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,417 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.37%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $325,291
• List price: $280,000
• Delta: -13.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22011 Vernazza Bend Dr	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,692 (+2%)	1mo	$299,990	$177	94
19070 Cetara Villa Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,642 (-1%)	3mo	$279,990	$171	73
19071 Cetara Villa Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,582 (-4%)	3mo	$249,990	$158	67
21803 Paphos Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,868 (+13%)	5mo	$319,990	$171	61
21702 Piazza Maggiore Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,489 (-10%)	1mo	$279,740	$188	60
19231 Saint Green Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,880 (+14%)	5mo	$328,990	$175	59
22211 Senoma Ridge Dr	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,820 (+10%)	2mo	$298,000	$164	58
22022 Matera Vista Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,642 (-1%)	3mo	$264,990	$161	58
22034 Matera Vista Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,642 (-1%)	4mo	$284,990	$174	57
22038 Matera Vista Ln	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,759 (+6%)	3mo	$269,990	$153	54
19930 Palermo Shores Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,535 (-7%)	2mo	$279,990	$182	53
22026 Matera Vista Ln	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,759 (+6%)	4mo	$299,990	$171	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-90,446
• Equity at exit: $48,502

10-year hold

• IRR: -55.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.59×
• Total profit: $-145,173
• Equity at exit: $28,125

Cash invested: $91,082 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 194 active · 120 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $289,490 ($168/sqft)
• Median days on market: 92 d
• This list price: 44% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +17.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 2407
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,404 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,706
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$407 /mo · $4,879/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$135
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $-484

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,016

Max offer price $255,297

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-259	-5% $-371	+0% $-484	+5% $-596	+10% $-709
Rent	-10% $-674	-5% $-579	+0% $-484	+5% $-389	+10% $-294
Rate	-1.0pp $-320	-0.5pp $-401	base $-484	+0.5pp $-568	+1.0pp $-654

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,323
• Closing costs: $9,759
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22211 Senoma Ridge Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,300	$1.26	38d	1	0.48mi
22215 Scarlino Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	2099	$2,300	$1.10	89d	1	0.62mi
20703 Solstice Point Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1912	$1,766	$0.92	82d	1	1.21mi
22154 Lost Lantern Dr Hockley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1601	$2,079	$1.30	4d	7	1.22mi
20313 Evergreen Cypress Dr Hockley, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2051	$2,712	$1.32	0d	1	1.25mi
20802 Echo Manor Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1576	$1,666	$1.06	89d	1	1.29mi
20718 Round Key Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2133	$1,806	$0.85	94d	1	1.35mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community pool
• HOA & community: Has association (Real Manage Onsite Elevated)Annual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: PrewiredSmoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyNew construction (2026)Slab foundationComposition roof
• Construction: Built by DR HortonBrick, cement siding and stone exterior
• Exterior features: DeckPatioPorchPrivate yardBack yard fencingSprinkler/irrigation

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGarbage disposalGas rangeMicrowave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floorThree additional bedrooms on the first floorTotal of 5 rooms
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (electric)Attic fan
• Interior features: High ceilingsQuartz countersProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupTankless water heater

HOA detail $135/mo · $1,620/yr

• Likely covers: water

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $280,000 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $280,000 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $280,000 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $280,000 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $280,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $280,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $280,000 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $280,000 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $280,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $280,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $280,000 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $280,000 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $280,000 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $280,000 Active 56 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $280,000 Active 55 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $280,000 Active 52 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $280,000 Active 51 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $280,000 Active 50 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $280,000 Active 49 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $280,000 Active 48 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $280,000 Active 46 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $280,000 Active 45 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $280,000 Active 44 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $280,000 Active 43 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $280,000 Active 42 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $280,000 Active 41 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $280,000 Active 40 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $280,000 Active 39 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $280,000 Active 38 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $280,000 Active 37 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $280,000 Active 36 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $280,000 Active 35 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $280,000 Active 34 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $280,000 Active 33 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $280,000 Active 32 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $280,000 Active 31 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $280,000 Active 30 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $280,000 Active 29 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $280,000 Active 27 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $280,000 Active 26 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $280,000 Active 25 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $280,000 Active 24 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $280,000 Active 21 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $280,000 Active 19 DOM
45. 2026-07-28
    days on market $280,000 Active 18 DOM
46. 2026-07-26
    days on market $280,000 Active 16 DOM
47. 2026-07-24
    days on market $280,000 Active 14 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $280,000 Active 13 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $280,000 Active 12 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $280,000 Active 11 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,850
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,221
• − Property taxes: −$4,879
• − Insurance: −$1,626
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,308
• − Management: −$2,308
• − HOA: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$9,463
• Taxable loss: −$11,576
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,778
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,026/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story home in Cypress Green is move-in ready with a modern design and excellent condition. It offers a spacious layout, two bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. The property is located in a desirable community with a pool and playground.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves convenience and energy efficiency, appealing to tech-savvy buyers ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Evelyn Turlington El D- TX #1,112/4,322 Nat'l #15,746/41,679 Middle Schultz J H F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009 High Waller H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hockley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 25,231
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community pool
• HOA & community: Has association (Real Manage Onsite Elevated)Annual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: PrewiredSmoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyNew construction (2026)Slab foundationComposition roof
• Construction: Built by DR HortonBrick, cement siding and stone exterior
• Exterior features: DeckPatioPorchPrivate yardBack yard fencingSprinkler/irrigation

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGarbage disposalGas rangeMicrowave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floorThree additional bedrooms on the first floorTotal of 5 rooms
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (electric)Attic fan
• Interior features: High ceilingsQuartz countersProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupTankless water heater

Price history

-8.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-10 Listed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $279,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $286,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $279,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $277,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $279,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $259,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $279,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $310,990 HARMLS