21926 Vernazza Bend Dr · Hockley, TX 77447

$280,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,655 sqft · SingleFamily · 29 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 7,066 sqft lot 2-car garage $135/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this new D. R. Horton home in Cypress Green! Situated on a desirable corner homesite, this one-story floorplan offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,655 square feet of living space. The open-concept layout features an island kitchen with quartz countertops, abundant cabinetry, pantry, and seamless flow into the family and dining areas. The private primary suite includes an oversized shower and walk-in closet, while spacious secondary bedrooms provide flexibility for family or guests. Additional highlights include a sprinkler system, tankless water heater, energy-efficient construction, and Smart Home features.

Key facts

• Pantry
• Quartz countertops
• Island kitchen

Tags

• ISLAND KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• PANTRY
• OVERSIZED SHOWER
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $280,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $328,464.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-531 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (10.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 2097 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 43d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,210 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.93%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $328,464
• List price: $280,000
• Delta: -14.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21907 Vernazza Bend Dr	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,750 (+6%)	4mo	$310,740	$178	84
19070 Cetara Villa Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,642 (-1%)	1mo	$279,990	$171	74
19071 Cetara Villa Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,582 (-4%)	2mo	$249,990	$158	68
21803 Paphos Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,868 (+13%)	4mo	$319,990	$171	62
19231 Saint Green Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,880 (+14%)	4mo	$328,990	$175	60
22211 Senoma Ridge Dr	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,820 (+10%)	0mo	$298,000	$164	60
20050 Palermo Shores Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,680 (+2%)	4mo	$290,990	$173	59
22022 Matera Vista Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,642 (-1%)	1mo	$264,990	$161	59
22034 Matera Vista Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,642 (-1%)	3mo	$284,990	$174	58
22038 Matera Vista Ln	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,759 (+6%)	1mo	$269,990	$153	55
22026 Matera Vista Ln	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,759 (+6%)	2mo	$299,990	$171	54
19930 Palermo Shores Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,535 (-7%)	0mo	$279,990	$182	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-93,877
• Equity at exit: $48,975

10-year hold

• IRR: -59.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.65×
• Total profit: $-151,677
• Equity at exit: $28,400

Cash invested: $91,970 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 183 active · 85 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.1 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $294,334 ($169/sqft)
• Median days on market: 99 d
• This list price: 37% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +17.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 2097
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,372 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,723
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$411 /mo · $4,927/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$135
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $-531

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,044

Max offer price $251,630

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-304	-5% $-417	+0% $-531	+5% $-644	+10% $-758
Rent	-10% $-718	-5% $-625	+0% $-531	+5% $-437	+10% $-344
Rate	-1.0pp $-366	-0.5pp $-447	base $-531	+0.5pp $-616	+1.0pp $-703

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,116
• Closing costs: $9,854
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22215 Scarlino Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	2099	$2,300	$1.10	42d	1	0.62mi
20703 Solstice Point Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1912	$1,766	$0.92	35d	1	1.21mi
22154 Lost Lantern Dr Hockley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1601	$2,180	$1.36	2d	5	1.22mi
20313 Evergreen Cypress Dr Hockley, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2051	$2,712	$1.32	0d	1	1.25mi
20802 Echo Manor Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1576	$1,666	$1.06	42d	1	1.29mi
20718 Round Key Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2133	$1,806	$0.85	48d	1	1.35mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community pool
• HOA & community: Has association (Real Manage Onsite Elevated)Annual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: PrewiredSmoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyNew construction (2026)Slab foundationComposition roof
• Construction: Built by DR HortonBrick, cement siding and stone exterior
• Exterior features: DeckPatioPorchPrivate yardBack yard fencingSprinkler/irrigation

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGarbage disposalGas rangeMicrowave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floorThree additional bedrooms on the first floorTotal of 5 rooms
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (electric)Attic fan
• Interior features: High ceilingsQuartz countersProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupTankless water heater

HOA detail $135/mo · $1,620/yr

• Likely covers: water

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $280,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $280,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $280,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $280,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $280,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $280,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $280,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $280,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $280,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $280,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $280,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $280,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $280,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $280,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $280,000 Active 8 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $280,000 Active 7 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    pricedays on market $280,000 Active 6 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $285,000 Active 5 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $285,000 Active 4 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $285,000 Active 3 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $285,000 Active 2 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    remarks 699-char remark
23. 2026-07-11
    pricedays on marketlisting id $285,000 Active 1 DOM
24. 2026-06-17
    days on market $279,990 Active 140 DOM
25. 2026-06-16
    days on market $279,990 Active 139 DOM
26. 2026-06-15
    days on market $279,990 Active 138 DOM
27. 2026-06-13
    days on market $279,990 Active 136 DOM
28. 2026-06-09
    days on market $279,990 Active 132 DOM
29. 2026-06-08
    days on market $279,990 Active 131 DOM
30. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,990 Active 130 DOM
31. 2026-06-04
    days on market $279,990 Active 127 DOM
32. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,990 Active 126 DOM
33. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,990 Active 125 DOM
34. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,990 Active 124 DOM
35. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,990 Active 123 DOM
36. 2026-04-20
    price $279,990 524-char remark
37. 2026-04-13
    price $286,990 524-char remark
38. 2026-03-04
    price $279,990 524-char remark
39. 2026-03-03
    price $277,990 524-char remark
40. 2026-02-19
    price $277,990 1498-char remark
41. 2026-02-15
    price $279,990 1498-char remark
42. 2026-02-15
    price $259,990 1498-char remark
43. 2026-02-15
    price $279,990 1498-char remark
44. 2026-02-14
    price $259,990 1498-char remark
45. 2026-02-14
    price $279,990 1498-char remark
46. 2026-02-13
    price $279,990 524-char remark
47. 2026-02-04
    price $259,990 1498-char remark
48. 2026-02-03
    price $259,990 524-char remark
49. 2026-02-03
    listed $279,990 Active 1498-char remark
50. 2026-01-28
    price $279,990 524-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,465
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,399
• − Property taxes: −$4,927
• − Insurance: −$1,642
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,277
• − Management: −$2,277
• − HOA: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$9,555
• Taxable loss: −$12,233
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,936
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,436/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story home in Cypress Green is move-in ready with a modern design and excellent condition. It offers a spacious layout, two bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. The property is located in a desirable community with a pool and playground.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves convenience and energy efficiency, appealing to tech-savvy buyers ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Evelyn Turlington El D- TX #1,112/4,322 Nat'l #15,746/41,679 Middle Schultz J H F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009 High Waller H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hockley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 25,231
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community pool
• HOA & community: Has association (Real Manage Onsite Elevated)Annual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: PrewiredSmoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyNew construction (2026)Slab foundationComposition roof
• Construction: Built by DR HortonBrick, cement siding and stone exterior
• Exterior features: DeckPatioPorchPrivate yardBack yard fencingSprinkler/irrigation

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGarbage disposalGas rangeMicrowave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floorThree additional bedrooms on the first floorTotal of 5 rooms
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (electric)Attic fan
• Interior features: High ceilingsQuartz countersProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupTankless water heater

Price history

-8.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-10 Listed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $279,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $286,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $279,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $277,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $279,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $259,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $279,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $310,990 HARMLS