7137 Cayuga Dr · Payne Springs, TX 75156

$104,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 118 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 9,975 sqft lot $105/sqft · 35% below area Est $162k · 35% under $8/mo HOA ↓ 43% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Steel-structured 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom container home project in Cherokee Shores near Cedar Creek Lake. Built in 2025, the approximately 1,000 sqft design features three reinforced shipping containers welded into a unified structure and anchored on a poured concrete perimeter beam foundation. Major progress is already in place, including steel wall and ceiling framing, spray foam insulation, a covered front porch, and some roughed-in electrical and plumbing. Situated on two lots totaling approximately 0.23 acres, the property also offers added flexibility with a second lot included. Temporary construction power pole is installed, with city water and sewer available for connection, and survey of lots available. Cherokee Shores POA offers a private boat ramp, park, and community pool. Ideal for an investor, builder, or hands-on buyer looking to finish out a durable lake-area project with meaningful structural work already underway.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Community pool
• Private boat ramp

Tags

• STEEL-STRUCTURED HOME
• REINFORCED SHIPPING CONTAINERS
• SPRAY FOAM INSULATION
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• PRIVATE BOAT RAMP
• COMMUNITY POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $105k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $669 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $95k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 3.9% in Payne Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#985 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Eustace ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #455 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 694 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $725 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,459 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.35%
• DSCR: 2.22
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $162,500
• List price: $104,900
• Delta: -35.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
120 W Quanah Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0	960 (-4%)	24mo	$145,000	$151	66
136 N Cherokee Shores Dr	0.07mi	3/1.0	864 (-14%)	20mo	$59,000	$68	53
348 N Cherokee Shores Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,084 (+8%)	5mo	$160,000	$148	51
358 N Cherokee Shores Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,084 (+8%)	5mo	$165,000	$152	50
178 Indian Gap Dr	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	912 (-9%)	1mo	$275,000	$302	49
115 Geronimo	0.71mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,024 (+2%)	20mo	$160,000	$156	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $20,470
• Equity at exit: $15,641

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $52,752
• Equity at exit: $9,070

Cash invested: $29,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 694
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,775 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$131 /mo · $1,574/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $669

Break-even live

Break-even rent $928

Max offer price $104,900

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $742	-5% $706	+0% $669	+5% $633	+10% $597
Rent	-10% $529	-5% $599	+0% $669	+5% $740	+10% $810
Rate	-1.0pp $722	-0.5pp $696	base $669	+0.5pp $642	+1.0pp $615

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,225
• Closing costs: $3,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
110 Bowie St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,550	$1.29	44d	1	0.59mi
120 Trails End St Mabank, TX	2.0	2.0	1176	$1,895	$1.61	44d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr
• Likely covers: watersewerelectricpool

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $104,900 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,900 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $104,900 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $104,900 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $104,900 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $104,900 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $104,900 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $104,900 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $104,900 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $104,900 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $104,900 Active 103 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $104,900 Active 101 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $104,900 Active 100 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $104,900 Active 99 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $104,900 Active 98 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    price $104,900 943-char remark

    Show marketing remark (943 chars)

    Steel-structured 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom container home project in Cherokee Shores near Cedar Creek Lake. Built in 2025, the approximately 1,000 sqft design features three reinforced shipping containers welded into a unified structure and anchored on a poured concrete perimeter beam foundation. Major progress is already in place, including steel wall and ceiling framing, spray foam insulation, a covered front porch, and some roughed-in electrical and plumbing. Situated on two lots totaling approximately 0.23 acres, the property also offers added flexibility with a second lot included. Temporary construction power pole is installed, with city water and sewer available for connection, and survey of lots available. Cherokee Shores POA offers a private boat ramp, park, and community pool. Ideal for an investor, builder, or hands-on buyer looking to finish out a durable lake-area project with meaningful structural work already underway.

17. 2026-05-14
    price $104,900 943-char remark

    Show marketing remark (943 chars)

    Steel-structured 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom container home project in Cherokee Shores near Cedar Creek Lake. Built in 2025, the approximately 1,000 sqft design features three reinforced shipping containers welded into a unified structure and anchored on a poured concrete perimeter beam foundation. Major progress is already in place, including steel wall and ceiling framing, spray foam insulation, a covered front porch, and some roughed-in electrical and plumbing. Situated on two lots totaling approximately 0.23 acres, the property also offers added flexibility with a second lot included. Temporary construction power pole is installed, with city water and sewer available for connection, and survey of lots available. Cherokee Shores POA offers a private boat ramp, park, and community pool. Ideal for an investor, builder, or hands-on buyer looking to finish out a durable lake-area project with meaningful structural work already underway.

18. 2026-04-10
    price $109,900 943-char remark

    Show marketing remark (943 chars)

    Steel-structured 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom container home project in Cherokee Shores near Cedar Creek Lake. Built in 2025, the approximately 1,000 sqft design features three reinforced shipping containers welded into a unified structure and anchored on a poured concrete perimeter beam foundation. Major progress is already in place, including steel wall and ceiling framing, spray foam insulation, a covered front porch, and some roughed-in electrical and plumbing. Situated on two lots totaling approximately 0.23 acres, the property also offers added flexibility with a second lot included. Temporary construction power pole is installed, with city water and sewer available for connection, and survey of lots available. Cherokee Shores POA offers a private boat ramp, park, and community pool. Ideal for an investor, builder, or hands-on buyer looking to finish out a durable lake-area project with meaningful structural work already underway.

19. 2026-04-10
    price $109,900 943-char remark

    Show marketing remark (943 chars)

    Steel-structured 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom container home project in Cherokee Shores near Cedar Creek Lake. Built in 2025, the approximately 1,000 sqft design features three reinforced shipping containers welded into a unified structure and anchored on a poured concrete perimeter beam foundation. Major progress is already in place, including steel wall and ceiling framing, spray foam insulation, a covered front porch, and some roughed-in electrical and plumbing. Situated on two lots totaling approximately 0.23 acres, the property also offers added flexibility with a second lot included. Temporary construction power pole is installed, with city water and sewer available for connection, and survey of lots available. Cherokee Shores POA offers a private boat ramp, park, and community pool. Ideal for an investor, builder, or hands-on buyer looking to finish out a durable lake-area project with meaningful structural work already underway.

20. 2026-03-02
    listed $119,900 Active 943-char remark

    Show marketing remark (943 chars)

    Steel-structured 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom container home project in Cherokee Shores near Cedar Creek Lake. Built in 2025, the approximately 1,000 sqft design features three reinforced shipping containers welded into a unified structure and anchored on a poured concrete perimeter beam foundation. Major progress is already in place, including steel wall and ceiling framing, spray foam insulation, a covered front porch, and some roughed-in electrical and plumbing. Situated on two lots totaling approximately 0.23 acres, the property also offers added flexibility with a second lot included. Temporary construction power pole is installed, with city water and sewer available for connection, and survey of lots available. Cherokee Shores POA offers a private boat ramp, park, and community pool. Ideal for an investor, builder, or hands-on buyer looking to finish out a durable lake-area project with meaningful structural work already underway.

21. 2026-02-21
    listed $119,900 Active 943-char remark

    Show marketing remark (943 chars)

    Steel-structured 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom container home project in Cherokee Shores near Cedar Creek Lake. Built in 2025, the approximately 1,000 sqft design features three reinforced shipping containers welded into a unified structure and anchored on a poured concrete perimeter beam foundation. Major progress is already in place, including steel wall and ceiling framing, spray foam insulation, a covered front porch, and some roughed-in electrical and plumbing. Situated on two lots totaling approximately 0.23 acres, the property also offers added flexibility with a second lot included. Temporary construction power pole is installed, with city water and sewer available for connection, and survey of lots available. Cherokee Shores POA offers a private boat ramp, park, and community pool. Ideal for an investor, builder, or hands-on buyer looking to finish out a durable lake-area project with meaningful structural work already underway.

22. 2024-07-01
    historical
23. 2024-05-31
    listed $184,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,302
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,876
• − Property taxes: −$1,574
• − Insurance: −$524
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,704
• − Management: −$1,704
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$3,052
• Taxable income: $6,772
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,625
• After-tax cash flow: $6,408/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This container home project is in good condition with a good rehab level, requiring minor repairs and maintenance. The property offers a great location with added flexibility and potential for significant value increase through finishing and landscaping.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Electrical — Exposed wiring
• Minor Plumbing — Exposed plumbing

Value-add opportunities

• Both Complete kitchen and bathroom finishes — Enhances both resale and rental appeal
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and resale value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Electrical · Exposed wiring	Minor	$500–3,000
Plumbing · Exposed plumbing	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Complete kitchen and bathroom finishes — Enhances both resale and rental appeal ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eustace ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818720
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $42,425
• Composite: 32.48/100
• National rank: #5711
• State rank: #455 of 826 in TX

Livability — Payne Springs

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #985
• US rank: #17539

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• City population: 16,333
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-43.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $104,900 NTREIS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $104,900 HCBOR
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $109,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $109,900 HCBOR
• 2026-03-02 Listed $119,900 HCBOR
• 2026-02-21 Listed $119,900 NTREIS
• 2024-07-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-05-31 Listed $184,900 NTREIS