31913 Auberry Rd · Auberry, CA 93602

$325,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,432 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1979 2.30 ac lot Est $371k · 12% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Duplex 2 Units sitting on a nice, all usable at approx. 2.3 acres. There is a barn for the animals or storage. Ample space to plant that garden that you always wanted. Plenty of area for the kids to run around, park all your toys and a swing set for the kids.Unit #1 has 2 Bedrooms and 1 Bathroom. The entry to the front door has a quaint concreted porch area and is accented with rock walls. Owners added on to the Living Room at approximately 15x9. It is headed with a Williams propane heating unit and cooled off with a Swamp Cooler. The kitchen has an old-time Farmers sink with a double drainboard. Has it's own detached garage.Unit #2 has 2 Bedrooms and 1 Bathroom. The entry to the front door is a covered wood deck. It has a stand-up propane Stove for heat and is also equipped with a Swamp Cooler. The carpets have all been removed and has been freshly painted. The kitchen has an old-time Farmers sink with a double drainboard. Has it's own detached garage.Laundry Room (common area) is situated between both units. An interior accessible door from each unit, as well as an exterior door. Common area is also equipped with an extra storage room.There is no Rental Income history to provide. The sellers will not be doing any repairs. Make your appointments soon. This would be a great rental.

Key facts

• Concreted porch area
• Usable acres
• Rock walls

Tags

• USABLE ACRES
• BARN FOR ANIMALS
• SPACE TO PLANT GARDEN
• CONCRETED PORCH AREA
• ROCK WALLS
• ADDED LIVING ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Propane (propane tank leased); Well water; Holding tank sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Built in 1979
• Construction: Metal roof
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Does not allow horses; Approximately 2.3 acres lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Carpet
• Bathrooms: Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Evaporative cooler
• Interior features: One-level layout; Free-standing fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Electric laundry hookups inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $145 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.4% in Auberry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#982 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Sierra Unified (rural): math 31% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #212 of 517 in CA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Foothill Elementary (math 37% / reading 48%, grade F, #552 of 1,571 statewide, top 35%, 660 students, 47% FRL); Sierra Junior High (math 32% / reading 57%, grade D, #130 of 498 statewide, top 27%, 185 students, 36% FRL); Sierra High (math 17% / reading 57%, grade F, #578 of 1,170 statewide, top 51%, 399 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $258,584 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.91%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $370,888
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31129 Auberry Rd	0.75mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,500 (+5%)	15mo	$388,300	$259	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-43,629
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-26,842
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93602

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,586 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $702/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $145

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,403

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $329	-5% $237	+0% $145	+5% $53	+10% $-428
Rent	-10% $-60	-5% $42	+0% $145	+5% $247	+10% $349
Rate	-1.0pp $308	-0.5pp $227	base $145	+0.5pp $60	+1.0pp $-25

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $325,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $325,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $325,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $325,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on marketlisting id $325,000 Active 1 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    listed $325,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (1302 chars)

    Duplex 2 Units sitting on a nice, all usable at approx. 2.3 acres. There is a barn for the animals or storage. Ample space to plant that garden that you always wanted. Plenty of area for the kids to run around, park all your toys and a swing set for the kids.Unit #1 has 2 Bedrooms and 1 Bathroom. The entry to the front door has a quaint concreted porch area and is accented with rock walls. Owners added on to the Living Room at approximately 15x9. It is headed with a Williams propane heating unit and cooled off with a Swamp Cooler. The kitchen has an old-time Farmers sink with a double drainboard. Has it's own detached garage.Unit #2 has 2 Bedrooms and 1 Bathroom. The entry to the front door is a covered wood deck. It has a stand-up propane Stove for heat and is also equipped with a Swamp Cooler. The carpets have all been removed and has been freshly painted. The kitchen has an old-time Farmers sink with a double drainboard. Has it's own detached garage.Laundry Room (common area) is situated between both units. An interior accessible door from each unit, as well as an exterior door. Common area is also equipped with an extra storage room.There is no Rental Income history to provide. The sellers will not be doing any repairs. Make your appointments soon. This would be a great rental.

17. 2025-11-01
    price $355,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $702 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,470 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,768/yr (+$147/mo · 252.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 67 unhealthy d/yr today · 72 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,030
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$702
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,482
• − Management: −$2,482
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$3,921
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$941
• After-tax cash flow: $2,676/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sierra Unified
• NCES district ID: 0636805
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $67,384
• Composite: 36.91/100
• National rank: #4539
• State rank: #212 of 517 in CA

Livability — Auberry

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #982
• US rank: #24661

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Auberry, CA
• City population: 3,091
• Population (ZIP): 3,091

Population outlook (Fresno County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,042,971 people
• By 2030: 1,072,198 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 1,122,408 · +7.6%
• By 2050: 1,157,251 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 1,182,575 · +13.4%
• By 2100: 1,105,899 · +6.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 10% Native American 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fresno

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+7.8 2016: D+3.9 2012: R+2.9 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.97%
• Current HPI: 244.699
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-8.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $325,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2025-11-01 Price Changed $355,000 FRESNOMLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $702 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.