8200 Chain Lake Rd · Plainfield, MI 48761

$169,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 2006 1.60 ac lot $108/sqft · 27% below area Est $232k · 27% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity for a family home, vacation getaway, or retirement retreat! This well-designed, one-level home features an open floor plan with spacious living areas and ample storage throughout. The primary suite offers a private ensuite and a large walk-in closet, widened hallways and doorways add to the home’s accessibility and comfort. The spacious kitchen includes a pantry and plenty of room to prepare and gather for meals. Thoughtful updates include upgraded faucets, door locks, select lighting fixtures, and six ceiling fans throughout the home for added comfort. Enjoy relaxing on the covered cement front porch—perfect for your morning coffee or evening unwind. The exterior offers a cement driveway leading to a 1.5-car garage with 220-volt service and an insulated workshop in the back, plus an additional 5x8 shed for lawn and garden tools. A fenced garden area and fenced backyard provide great space for outdoor living and hobbies. The home also features poured walls with a 4-foot crawl space, complete with spray foam insulation and a vapor barrier for added efficiency. Ideally located near numerous lakes and less than 10 miles from the AuSable River, you’ll have easy access to fishing, kayaking, and swimming. Plus, thousands of acres of Huron National Forest are just a short drive away, offering endless outdoor recreation.

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Large walk-in closet
• Private ensuite

Tags

• PRIVATE ENSUITE
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• WIDENED HALLWAYS
• AMPLE STORAGE
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• FENCED GARDEN AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-48 ($-579/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (28.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $122k (28.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hale Area Schools (rural): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #402 of 760 in MI (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 58 units permitted in Iosco County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $915 appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Iosco County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $121,660 (28.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.22%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,395
• List price: $169,000
• Delta: -27.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,752
• Equity at exit: $53,695

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $19,649
• Equity at exit: $68,360

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48761

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,217 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $633/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $-48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,278

Max offer price $160,471

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $169,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,000 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-04-22
    listed $169,000 Active 1409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1351 chars)

    Great opportunity for a family home, vacation getaway, or retirement retreat! This well-designed, one-level home features an open floor plan with spacious living areas and ample storage throughout. The primary suite offers a private ensuite and a large walk-in closet, widened hallways and doorways add to the homes accessibility and comfort. The spacious kitchen includes a pantry and plenty of room to prepare and gather for meals. Thoughtful updates include upgraded faucets, door locks, select lighting fixtures, and six ceiling fans throughout the home for added comfort. Enjoy relaxing on the covered cement front porch-perfect for your morning coffee or evening unwind. The exterior offers a cement driveway leading to a 1.5-car garage with 220-volt service and an insulated workshop in the back, plus an additional 5x8 shed for lawn and garden tools. A fenced garden area and fenced backyard provide great space for outdoor living and hobbies. The home also features poured walls with a 4-foot crawl space, complete with spray foam insulation and a vapor barrier for added efficiency. Ideally located near numerous lakes and less than 10 miles from the AuSable River, youll have easy access to fishing, kayaking, and swimming. Plus, thousands of acres of Huron National Forest are just a short drive away, offering endless outdoor recreation.

17. 2026-04-22
    listed $169,000 Active 1351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1351 chars)

    Great opportunity for a family home, vacation getaway, or retirement retreat! This well-designed, one-level home features an open floor plan with spacious living areas and ample storage throughout. The primary suite offers a private ensuite and a large walk-in closet, widened hallways and doorways add to the homes accessibility and comfort. The spacious kitchen includes a pantry and plenty of room to prepare and gather for meals. Thoughtful updates include upgraded faucets, door locks, select lighting fixtures, and six ceiling fans throughout the home for added comfort. Enjoy relaxing on the covered cement front porch-perfect for your morning coffee or evening unwind. The exterior offers a cement driveway leading to a 1.5-car garage with 220-volt service and an insulated workshop in the back, plus an additional 5x8 shed for lawn and garden tools. A fenced garden area and fenced backyard provide great space for outdoor living and hobbies. The home also features poured walls with a 4-foot crawl space, complete with spray foam insulation and a vapor barrier for added efficiency. Ideally located near numerous lakes and less than 10 miles from the AuSable River, youll have easy access to fishing, kayaking, and swimming. Plus, thousands of acres of Huron National Forest are just a short drive away, offering endless outdoor recreation.

18. 2025-12-01
    historical
19. 2025-10-17
    price $169,000
20. 2025-10-17
    price $169,000
21. 2025-09-18
    listed $179,000 Active
22. 2025-09-18
    listed $179,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $633 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,618 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: +$985/yr (+$82/mo · 155.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,599
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$633
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,168
• − Management: −$1,168
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$3,597
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$863
• After-tax cash flow: $284/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hale Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2617370
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $35,292
• Composite: 35.5/100
• National rank: #9750
• State rank: #402 of 760 in MI

Livability — Plainfield

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 804

Population outlook (Iosco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,366 people
• By 2030: 23,622 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 22,021 · -9.6%
• By 2050: 20,877 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 18,792 · -22.9%
• By 2100: 15,465 · -36.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 14% Romanian 13% Slovak 5%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Iosco

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.6) · D 34.0% · R 64.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.7pp toward R · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: -30.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.6 2020: R+28.6 2016: R+30.0 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.54%
• Current HPI: 176.0313
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-5.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $169,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-22 Listed $169,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $169,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $169,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-09-18 Listed $179,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-09-18 Listed $179,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $633 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.