252 County Line Rd · Phoenix, NY 13135

$169,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 920 sqft · Manufactured public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1986 2.82 ac lot Est $176k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

SPOTLESS BOTH INSIDE AND OUT IS HOW I DESCRIBE THIS WONDERFUL COUNTRY FIND! THIS ONE-OWNER HOME HAS BEEN METICULOUSLY CARED FOR AND IS SITUATED IN A PICTURESQUE SETTING OFFERING 2.8 ACRES OF COUNTRY LAND. AS YOU ARRIVE, YOU WILL APPRECIATE THE EXPANSIVE PAVED DRIVEWAY. .. .PLENTY OF ROOM FOR THE LARGEST GATHERINGS, CAMPERS AND BOATS, TOO! THE COVERED FRONT PORCH IS WELCOMING TO GUESTS. .. COMPLETE WITH BUILT-IN BENCH SEATS! STEP INSIDE TO AN OPEN AND INVITING FLOOR PLAN, A REMODELED KITCHEN AND 2 BEDROOMS AND 2 FULL BATHS! MECHANICALS HAVE ALL BEEN UDATED AS WELL INCLUDING VINYL REPLACEMENT WINDOWS, A STEEL ROOF, NEW FLOOR COVERINGS AND A NEW BACK DECK CONSTRUCTED WITH MAINTENANCE-FREE

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Built-in bench seats
• Remodeled kitchen

Tags

• PAVED DRIVEWAY
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• BUILT-IN BENCH SEATS
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• VINYL REPLACEMENT WINDOWS
• STEEL ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-215 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (22.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (25.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 1.9% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#613 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Phoenix Central School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #416 of 590 in NY (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Michael A Maroun Elementary School (math 36% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,413 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 667 students, 58% FRL); Emerson J Dillon Middle School (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #445 of 729 statewide, top 61%, 514 students, 60% FRL); John C Birdlebough High School (math 87% / reading 87%, grade A, #311 of 1,100 statewide, top 30%, 473 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 59% FRL vs 41% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $126,557 (25.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.42%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $175,720
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
252 County Line Rd	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,012 (+10%)	1mo	$193,000	$191	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $78,889
• Equity at exit: $153,059

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.11×
• Total profit: $243,166
• Equity at exit: $330,078

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13135

• Home prices YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,266 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$253 /mo · $3,035/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $-215

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,538

Max offer price $131,937

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-119	-5% $-167	+0% $-215	+5% $-263	+10% $-311
Rent	-10% $-315	-5% $-265	+0% $-215	+5% $-165	+10% $-115
Rate	-1.0pp $-129	-0.5pp $-172	base $-215	+0.5pp $-259	+1.0pp $-304

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-26
   listed $169,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,035 · $253/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,035 · $253/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,187
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$3,035
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,215
• − Management: −$1,215
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$5,587
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,341
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,238/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Phoenix Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3622920
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $52,419
• Composite: 41.34/100
• National rank: #3500
• State rank: #416 of 590 in NY

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #613
• US rank: #11120

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,229

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Romanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 25.32%
• Current HPI: 313.5591
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $169,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,035 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.