276 Sycamore Rd Lot 288 · Craig, CO 81625

$170,000

3 bd · 0.5 ba · 1,536 sqft · SingleFamily · 330 Days on market

Built 2001 10 ac lot Est $140k · 22% over $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Escape to the Colorado mountains with this fully furnished cabin nestled on 10 acres in Wilderness Ranch. Tucked away in a haven of natural beauty and seasonal solitude, this off-grid getaway offers the ultimate retreat for hunters, outdoor enthusiasts, or anyone craving peace and quiet. The cabin's main level features a spacious living area and a fully functional kitchen outfitted with propane appliances. The upper level loft serves as an additional sleeping area, perfect for hosting groups. Rustic wood finishes, exposed beams, and a charming tree-branch staircase add character to the open interior. A seasonal creek meanders through the land, inviting wildlife and providing a serene settin

Key facts

• Seasonal creek
• 10 acres
• Off-grid getaway

Tags

• FULLY FURNISHED CABIN
• 10 ACRES
• OFF-GRID GETAWAY
• SEASONAL CREEK
• NATIONAL FOREST ACCESS
• REMOTE BACKCOUNTRY TERRAIN

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowner association with an annual fee of $125

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family residence
• Exterior features: Located in the Wilderness Ranches subdivision; Lot measures approximately 10 acres; Driving directions available to the lot within Wilderness Ranch

Interior

• Bathrooms: One half bathroom
• Interior features: Furnished
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/0.5-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8 ($94/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (11.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.2% in Craig — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#160 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: employment C-, schools D, crime D.
• Moffat County School District Re: No. 1 (town): math 22% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #53 of 86 in CO (top 62%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Moffat County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Moffat County population projected at -41% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 330 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 330 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.20%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $139,776
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1901 Boulder Dr	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,536 (0%)	8mo	$140,000	$91	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-27,020
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-22,768
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81625

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,510 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$212 /mo · $2,550/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,500

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $170,000 Active 330 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 329 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 328 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 327 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 326 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $170,000 Active 324 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $170,000 Active 323 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 320 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 319 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $170,000 Active 318 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $170,000 Active 315 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 314 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 313 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 312 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 311 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $170,000 Active 310 DOM
17. 2025-08-12
    price $170,000
18. 2025-07-24
    listed $179,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 10 d/yr ≥82°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,116
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,550
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,449
• − Management: −$1,449
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$2,770
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$665
• After-tax cash flow: $759/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moffat County School District Re: No. 1
• NCES district ID: 0805730
• Math proficiency: 22% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,633
• Composite: 25.07/100
• National rank: #7539
• State rank: #53 of 86 in CO

Livability — Craig

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #12817

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,242

Population outlook (Moffat County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,901 people
• By 2030: 9,922 · -9.0%
• By 2040: 8,081 · -25.9%
• By 2050: 6,460 · -40.7%
• By 2075: 3,896 · -64.3%
• By 2100: 2,620 · -76.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Moffat

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.8) · D 17.5% · R 80.3% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.4pp toward R · 2008: -43.5pp · 2024: -62.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.8 2020: R+63.6 2016: R+67.9 2012: R+55.0 2008: R+43.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.11%
• Current HPI: 284.444
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-5.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $170,000 AGMLS
• 2025-07-24 Listed $179,900 AGMLS