125 Pecan Dr · Shadybrook, TX 75757

$200,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,259 sqft · Land · 173 Days on market

Built 2025 0.27 ac lot $30/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute as a button New Construction 2/2/2 in Lakeside Community with pool and boat launch in Bullard ISD. Open Plan with split bedroom arrangement. Easy care vinyl plank flooring throughout, spacious living area, open kitchen with REAL butcher block counter tops flowing to large dining area. Nice size bedrooms and baths and good size laundry room all on a flat 1/4 acre lot.

Key facts

• New construction
• Boat launch
• Lakeside community

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• LAKESIDE COMMUNITY
• POOL
• BOAT LAUNCH
• OPEN PLAN
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-109 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.0% in Shadybrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,042 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Bullard ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #48 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bullard El (math 61% / reading 61%, grade B, #368 of 4,322 statewide, top 9%, 434 students, 36% FRL); Bullard Middle (math 69% / reading 66%, grade A-, #77 of 1,662 statewide, top 5%, 459 students, 33% FRL); Bullard H S (math 57% / reading 68%, grade B-, #234 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 848 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 585 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,000 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.33%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-39,286
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-42,944
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75757

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 585
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,788

Max offer price $184,277

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $30	-5% $-40	+0% $-109	+5% $-178	+10% $-247
Rent	-10% $-239	-5% $-174	+0% $-109	+5% $-43	+10% $22
Rate	-1.0pp $-8	-0.5pp $-58	base $-109	+0.5pp $-160	+1.0pp $-213

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
124 Pecan Dr Bullard, TX	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,650	$1.21	45d	1	0.05mi
394 Red Bud Cir Bullard, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,650	$1.22	45d	1	0.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-01-28
   status Active 374-char remark

   Show marketing remark (374 chars)

   Cute as a button New Construction 2/2/2 in Lakeside Community with pool and boat launch in Bullard ISD. Open Plan with split bedroom arrangement. Easy care vinyl plank flooring throughout, spacious living area, open kitchen with REAL butcher block counter tops flowing to large dining area. Nice size bedrooms and baths and good size laundry room all on a flat 1/4 acre lot.

2. 2026-01-18
   historical 374-char remark

   Show marketing remark (374 chars)

   Cute as a button New Construction 2/2/2 in Lakeside Community with pool and boat launch in Bullard ISD. Open Plan with split bedroom arrangement. Easy care vinyl plank flooring throughout, spacious living area, open kitchen with REAL butcher block counter tops flowing to large dining area. Nice size bedrooms and baths and good size laundry room all on a flat 1/4 acre lot.

3. 2026-01-16
   price $200,000 374-char remark

   Show marketing remark (374 chars)

   Cute as a button New Construction 2/2/2 in Lakeside Community with pool and boat launch in Bullard ISD. Open Plan with split bedroom arrangement. Easy care vinyl plank flooring throughout, spacious living area, open kitchen with REAL butcher block counter tops flowing to large dining area. Nice size bedrooms and baths and good size laundry room all on a flat 1/4 acre lot.

4. 2025-11-20
   listed $225,000 Active 374-char remark

   Show marketing remark (374 chars)

   Cute as a button New Construction 2/2/2 in Lakeside Community with pool and boat launch in Bullard ISD. Open Plan with split bedroom arrangement. Easy care vinyl plank flooring throughout, spacious living area, open kitchen with REAL butcher block counter tops flowing to large dining area. Nice size bedrooms and baths and good size laundry room all on a flat 1/4 acre lot.

5. 2025-10-31
   soldstatus
6. 2025-01-21
   soldstatus
7. 1988-06-29
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,584
• − Management: −$1,584
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$4,749
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,140
• After-tax cash flow: $-164/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bullard ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812060
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,026
• Composite: 53.66/100
• National rank: #1433
• State rank: #48 of 826 in TX

Livability — Shadybrook

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1042
• US rank: #18541

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shadybrook, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,977

Population outlook (Cherokee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,949 people
• By 2030: 51,984 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 51,780 · -0.3%
• By 2050: 51,085 · -1.7%
• By 2075: 47,418 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 39,464 · -24.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Cherokee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.7) · D 18.3% · R 80.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.5pp toward R · 2008: -43.2pp · 2024: -62.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.7 2020: R+55.8 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+51.0 2008: R+43.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.57%
• Current HPI: 189.5215
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-28 Relisted — GTAR
• 2026-01-18 Delisted — GTAR
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $200,000 GTAR
• 2025-11-20 Listed $225,000 GTAR
• 2025-10-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-01-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-06-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+17.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $144 · +220.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.