9626 Vallarta Dr · El Paso, TX 79927

$199,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,896 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1983 7,606 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 9626 Vallarta, a beautifully renovated home tucked away on a spacious cul-de-sac lot in a great location. This move-in ready property has been thoughtfully updated throughout, featuring a brand-new refrigerated AC system, new windows, and a new electrical panel for added comfort and peace of mind. Inside, you'll find a cozy yet open floor plan designed for both everyday living and entertaining. The home offers two inviting living spaces, a beautifully updated kitchen, four spacious bedrooms, and two bathrooms, giving you plenty of room to spread out and enjoy. The large lot provides great outdoor potential, whether you're looking to entertain, relax, or create your ideal backyard

Key facts

• Cul-de-sac lot
• Two living spaces
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC LOT
• REFRIGERATED AC SYSTEM
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW ELECTRICAL PANEL
• TWO LIVING SPACES
• UPDATED KITCHEN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family residence
• Construction: Brick and stucco exterior; Shingle roof; Total building area approximately 1896
• Exterior features: Back yard access

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas oven
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Carpeted areas
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating with forced air; Refrigerated cooling
• Interior features: Multiple living areas (2+)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-113 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (10.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (10.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (10.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#23 in TX, #1,375 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+.
• Ysleta ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #626 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Capistrano El (math 14% / reading 21%, grade F, #3,805 of 4,322 statewide, top 89%, 460 students, 97% FRL); Ysleta Middle (math 14% / reading 16%, grade F, #1,569 of 1,662 statewide, top 95%, 779 students, 90% FRL); Ysleta H S (math 43% / reading 37%, grade F, #809 of 1,632 statewide, top 50%, 1,342 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 92% FRL vs 68% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.3%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,653 (10.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.44%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.93% appreciation · 5.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-17,302
• Equity at exit: $48,671

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $10,937
• Equity at exit: $51,650

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79927

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.3%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,777 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$390 /mo · $4,683/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $-113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,920

Max offer price $178,988

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1	-5% $-57	+0% $-113	+5% $-170	+10% $-226
Rent	-10% $-254	-5% $-183	+0% $-113	+5% $-43	+10% $27
Rate	-1.0pp $-13	-0.5pp $-63	base $-113	+0.5pp $-165	+1.0pp $-217

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $199,000 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $199,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $199,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   status $199,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-05-21
   listed $199,000 Active
6. 2026-02-04
   soldstatus
7. 2006-10-10
   soldstatus
8. 2006-08-25
   historical
9. 2006-08-07
   listed $79,000
10. 1985-10-08
    soldstatus
11. 1984-02-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,683 · $390/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,683 · $390/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,318
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$4,683
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,705
• − Management: −$1,705
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$4,707
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,130
• After-tax cash flow: $-230/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ysleta ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846680
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $35,826
• Composite: 25.65/100
• National rank: #7400
• State rank: #626 of 826 in TX

Livability — El Paso

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #23
• US rank: #1375

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Paso, TX
• County: El Paso County · 761,266 people
• City population: 630,223
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,444
• Household income: $53,652
• Rent vs Own: 19.2% rent · 80.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 732.0

Population outlook (El Paso County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 897,899 people
• By 2030: 922,694 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 960,492 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 982,919 · +9.5%
• By 2075: 997,266 · +11.1%
• By 2100: 900,630 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 39% Native American 2% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada
• Languages at home: 16% English-only · Spanish 84%

Political lean MEDSL · El Paso

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+35.1 2016: D+43.2 2012: D+32.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.93%
• Current HPI: 239.646
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.29%
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+151.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $199,000 GEPARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-10-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-08-25 Listing Removed — GEPARMLS
• 2006-08-07 Listed $79,000 GEPARMLS
• 1985-10-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1984-02-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,683 · +10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.