390 Campground Rd · Westwood Shores, TX 75862

$99,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,036 sqft · Manufactured public records · 57 Days on market

Built 2005 0.38 ac lot $96/sqft · 56% below area ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity for investors or buyers looking for their next project! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is a true fixer-upper and ready for renovation, offering strong potential for a flip, rental, or personal use. Located in a quiet area near Lake Livingston, this property provides a peaceful setting with room to add value. With the right updates, it could be transformed into a solid investment or long-term hold. Property Features: 3 Bedrooms 2 Bathrooms Fixer-upper – needs repairs and updates Opportunity to customize and add value Located near Lake Livingston and outdoor recreation No MUD or PID Condition: Property is being sold as-is and will require repairs. Ideal for in

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Near lake livingston
• 0.38 acre lot

Tags

• NEAR LAKE LIVINGSTON
• OUTDOOR RECREATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Corner lot (directions indicate property is on the left at a corner); Subdivision: Trinity Cove Sec 3
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Conventional; Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage indicated
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; On-street parking
• Utilities: City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Built in 2005; Shingle roof; No listed foundation details
• Exterior features: Large backyard with grass; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Primary bedroom on main level with walk-in closet
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High speed internet available; One living area; One dining area; Two total rooms (listed)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $314 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.6% in Westwood Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#914 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Trinity ISD (rural): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #682 of 826 in TX (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lansberry El (math 35% / reading 33%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 570 students, 91% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 50% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 468 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Trinity County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $175 of equity ($692 loan paydown + $-517 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Trinity County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,951 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.46%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $228,295
• List price: $99,950
• Delta: -49.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.52% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $14,657
• Equity at exit: $26,466

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $48,939
• Equity at exit: $29,838

Cash invested: $27,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75862

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 468
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,221 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,020/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $314

Break-even live

Break-even rent $824

Max offer price $99,950

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,988
• Closing costs: $2,998
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,950 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,950 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,950 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $99,950 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $115,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $115,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 38 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $115,000 Active 37 DOM
18. 2026-04-23
    listed $115,000 Active 784-char remark
19. 2007-05-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,020 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,829 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$809/yr (+$67/mo · 79.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,653
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,599
• − Property taxes: −$1,020
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,172
• − Management: −$1,172
• − Depreciation: −$2,908
• Taxable income: $2,282
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$548
• After-tax cash flow: $3,219/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trinity ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843200
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,104
• Composite: 23.31/100
• National rank: #7919
• State rank: #682 of 826 in TX

Livability — Westwood Shores

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #914
• US rank: #16347

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,030

Population outlook (Trinity County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,746 people
• By 2030: 13,333 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 12,542 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 11,942 · -13.1%
• By 2075: 10,871 · -20.9%
• By 2100: 9,784 · -28.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 10% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Trinity

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.0) · D 16.2% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.3pp toward R · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -67.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.0 2020: R+61.3 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.52%
• Current HPI: 174.6638
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $99,950 NTREIS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $115,000 NTREIS
• 2007-05-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,020 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.